This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
Multiple postponed games and critical injuries to players will make Wednesday's slate a little smaller than you'd initially think. While the best bets have been relatively strong for the entire season, a combination of bad luck, bad analysis, and just inconceivable lineup decisions from teams have made the ancillary bolded bets not nearly as automatic as of late. Especially with the All-Star break nearing and a possible growing number of teams outright choosing to rest/bench players with the trade deadline approaching, this feels like a dangerous point in the year for betting purposes.
Points Props
There just wasn't a major number of pure points props to target. DraftKings has done a good job of locking in numbers based on the data we have in front of us and tends to always be aggressively high with star players entering favorable situations. The one area that I think has been overlooked is the Pistons' recent roster changes. To start, I think you can capitalize by targeting the 12.5-point over for Delon Wright (-103). The veteran guard has scored at least 17 points in four of the last five games, but perhaps more importantly, he's averaging 37.2 minutes over that stretch. The Derrick Rose trade coupled with Blake Griffin sliding out of the starting lineup has created a small minutes bubble for Wright, and that should be enough to help hit the over against a porous perimeter Bulls' defense.
Conversely, I'd also target under 22.5 points for Jerami Grant. At least to start, the Pistons have put Grant in at power forward with Saddiq Bey taking over at small forward. I don't know if that alignment continues over the course of the season, but I feel comfortable assuming Detroit won't pivot away from that after just one game. Grant's scoring production was already tailing off a bit to end January, but he's only averaging 13.0 points over the last three games including the latest one as the official starting power forward. You can blame that primarily on the lack of free-throw attempts (just seven total over that stretch after averaging 6.0 FTs per game); an issue that I doubt gets better with a more post-oriented focus.
Sticking in the same game, I think I like the over (-115) when it comes to Coby White's 25.5 PRA (points/rebounds/assists). Zach LaVine's line has been pushed up into the stratosphere, but I do think White has an opportunity to take advantage of the secondary looks that come playing off the possible 2021 All-Star. Generally thanks to the lumbering pace, the Pistons don't allow a ton of production to point guards, but White has hit this over twice in the last three games.
I feel less certain about this knowing the Timberwolves will be missing the sieve, D'Angelo Russell, but you should probably still think about targeting the over when it comes to the 33.5 PRA for Malcolm Brogdon (-103). I nearly decided to just take the points over (o/u 21.5, o -115), but he's gone over that mark just once in seven games, so including the assists/rebounds felt like a better compromise. The return of Karl-Anthony Towns will make things a bit more difficult for Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis, so it feels logical to assume Brogdon will take a bit more of the scoring load.
Assists/Rebounds Props
Anytime the Rockets are on a given slate you can generally assume I'll be looking at a couple of rebound overs. To start, going after Danny Green's 3.5 over (-103) is one of my favorite bets of the slate. The veteran sharpshooter is getting consistent minutes (28.9 in the month of February) and has waffled between 3-5 rebounds in seven of the last eight games. It'll be close so given my luck I'm just bracing for disappointment already, but there's going to be boards available on the side of Philly.
Along the same lines, go ahead and put a modest sum on Tobias Harris hitting a double-double (+265). Look, it's major plus odds for a reason. Harris did have a three-game stretch at the beginning of February where he hit that mark, but he's only gotten a double-double two other times this season. The Rockets allow the third-most rebounds to power forwards, but perhaps more importantly for this context, they do relatively well limiting opposing centers on the glass. That should open the door for Harris to get close to double digits which is really all we're looking for here.
We've been burned badly when it comes to high PRA totals as of late, but I'm intrigued by Jimmy Butler's 37.5 total (over -110). He's not going to score a ton, but he's averaging 8.7 rebounds and 8.3 assists since returning from his COVID-19 related absence which should give a bit of cushion to the total PRA figure. The Warriors allow top-five figures in both assists and rebounds to opposing small forwards so even a modest boost to those aforementioned averages should cover Butler in the event he doesn't reach his o/u point total (21.5).
We'll round out the article with two odds-based bets. I mentioned it in Handicapping the NBA: Wednesday Picks, but I'm taking the under when it comes to Trae Young's rebound total (3.5, +125). He's gone under 3.5 rebounds in four of the last five games and the Celtics generally do alright when it comes to limiting rebounds, especially against opposing point guards.
For plus money, I think I'm interested in Bam Adebayo going over 10.5 rebounds (+103). From a size perspective, there's no way Draymond Green will really be able to hang in the post with Adebayo, and the Heat center has registered at least 10 rebounds in four of the last five games. Adebayo is only averaging 9.4 rebounds per game on the season so it's obviously no sure thing, but if you want a bit of action on Wednesday's marquee matchup, it's definitely one to monitor.
Bets Bets
- Delon Wright over 12.5 points (-103)
- Danny Green over 3.5 rebounds (-103)
- Jimmy Butler over 37.5 points/rebounds/assists (-110)
