FanDuel NBA: Friday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Friday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

We're set for a typically robust nine-game Friday night slate, one that encouragingly is projected to be highly competitive from top to bottom. There are no double-digit spreads on FanDuel Sportsbook as of Friday morning, and the fact there are five games with sub-two-point favorites underscores what an intriguing night of DFS action it could be.  

Slate Overview

Sacramento Kings (-1.5) at Charlotte Hornets (O/U: 228.5 points) 

Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers (-1.5) (O/U: 213.5 points) 

Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks (-1.5) (O/U: 223.5 points) 

New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors (-1) (O/U: 209.5 points) 

Milwaukee Bucks (-8.5) at Houston Rockets (O/U: 224.0 points) 

Los Angeles Lakers (-6) at Oklahoma City Thunder (O/U: 215.5 points) 

Cleveland Cavaliers at Minnesota Timberwolves (-1) (O/U: 212.5 points) 

Detroit Pistons at New Orleans Pelicans (-6) (O/U: 212.5 points) 

Boston Celtics at Phoenix Suns (-5.5) (O/U: 216.5 points) 

In addition to the plethora of potential close games, the other aspect of the slate that jumps off the screen is that there's a fairly high degree of offensive expectations. Five games have expected totals of over 215 points, a notable development considering that scoring has been down overall this season. In terms of player availability, the injury report does have some notable names on it, but it's relatively light considering there will be 18 teams in action.

This season has already offered us plenty of reminders that any game has the chance to be highly competitive regardless of matchup, but Friday's ledger actually offers plenty of clashes between what would be considered pretty evenly matched teams on paper. Even the Bucks-Rockets contest, which sees Milwaukee as the biggest favorite of the night, could be a lot closer than projected – one only need ask the Brooklyn Nets, which suffered a 10-point loss to Houston on Wednesday. 

Injury Situations to Monitor  

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL (quadriceps): PROBABLE 

Antetokounmpo is fully expected to take the floor against the Rockets and log his usual workload.

Devin Booker, PHO (hamstring): OUT 

In Booker's fourth straight absence, Landry Shamet is expected to continue handling starting shooting guard duties, while the usage for the remaining members of the starting five should remain elevated. 

LaMelo Ball, CHA (COVID-19 protocols): OUT 

With Ball and backup Ish Smith both projected to be out, Cody Martin should draw another start at point guard. 

Richaun Holmes, SAC (eye): OUT 

With Holmes out, Tristan Thompson and Alex Len should log the majority of minutes at center. 

D'Angelo Russell, MIN (ankle): QUESTIONABLE 

If Russell sits out another contest, Leandro Bolmaro could draw another start at two-guard, but Malik Beasley could be the biggest beneficiary off the bench. 

Terry Rozier, CHA (COVID-19 protocols): OUT 

In Rozier's ongoing absence, Kelly Oubre is expected to draw another start at two-guard.

Jaylen Brown, BOS (hamstring): OUT 

In Brown's ongoing absence Friday, Dennis Schroder should be a direct beneficiary in the form of another start.

Other notable injuries: 

Kevin Porter, HOU (thigh): OUT 

Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL (ankle): OUT 

Precious Achiuwa (shoulder): QUESTIONABLE 

Cam Reddish, ATL (wrist): PROBABLE 

George Hill, MIL (knee): QUESTIONABLE 

Joe Harris, BRO (ankle): OUT 

Kyrie Irving, BRO (personal): OUT 

Jalen Green, HOU (hamstring): OUT 

OG Anunoby, TOR (hip): OUT 

Brook Lopez, MIL (back): OUT 

Zion Williamson, NOP (foot): OUT 

Patrick Beverley, MIN (groin): PROBABLE 

Nerlens Noel, NYK (back): PROBABLE 

Mason Plumlee, CHA (COVID-19 protocols/calf): OUT 

Justin Holiday, IND (COVID-19 protocols): OUT 

Ish Smith, CHA (COVID-19 protocols): OUT

Elite Players

We have five players with five-figure salaries on Friday's slate – Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000), Kevin Durant ($10,600), James Harden ($10,400), LeBron James ($10,200) and Anthony Davis ($10,000).

Antetokounmpo is expected to play through his minor quad injury and checks into Friday coming off a couple of down performances by his standards (43.4 and 31.2 FD points). However, the matchup against the Rockets down low is one he should be able to consistently exploit.

Durant will be coming off a rest day Wednesday, so he could have a bit of extra spring in his step in a marquee matchup against the Hawks.

Harden has evened out his production for the most part after an inconsistent start to the season and has scored over 45 FD points in three straight, as well as over 40 in 10 straight.

James just posted 61.5 FD points versus the Grizzlies on Thursday over 37 minutes, but he will be on both the second night of a back-to-back and third game in four nights Friday. However, the matchup against the Thunder is a premium one for both he and Davis, especially on the rebounding front.

Expected Chalk

In addition to the players just mentioned in the prior section, other likely chalk plays include:

Luka Doncic, DAL ($9,900) 

Doncic's salary drop is certainly eye-catching and could boost his already robust popularity even further. The star guard does have some conditioning issues by his own admission, but he's posted over 40 FD points in his first two contests back from a one-game absence while playing 36 and 35 minutes in those games.

Trae Young, ATL ($9,800) 

Young has a pair of 50-FD-point tallies in his last four games along, and he hasn't been below 43.2 in any of his last eight contests. That track record coupled with the marquee matchup against the Nets should help ensure a high rostering rate for the star guard.

Jayson Tatum, BOS ($9,700) 

Tatum will once again take the floor without Jaylen Brown and has scored no fewer than 47 FD points in any of his last five games, locking in his popularity.

Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN ($9,500) 

Towns has seen some fluctuation in his performance recently but does have tallies of 50.5 and 62.2 FD points in two of his last three games. He should be in plenty of lineups for what could be a highly competitive matchup against the Cavaliers and could enjoy more usage than usual if D'Angelo Russell misses another game. 

Key Values 

Cody Martin, CHA vs. SAC ($5,000) 

As mentioned earlier, Martin is slated to draw another start at point guard with the Hornets missing both LaMelo Ball and Ish Smith due to COVID-19 protocols. Martin has scored over 30 FD points in two of his last three games alone, with one of those instances coming in his most recent start versus the 76ers on Wednesday.

The third-year pro is posting career-best figures across the board this season, including a 48.8 percent success rate from the floor, including 50.0 percent from three-point range. Martin is averaging 26.3 FD points over his last 10 games overall, and the Kings check in ranked in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency allowed to PGs (25.1 percent) while allowing the eighth-most FD points per contest (48.1) to the position as well. 

Herbert Jones, NOP vs. DET ($5,000) 

Jones' teammate Josh Hart ($5,800) is also an intriguing cost-savings option to consider from the Pelicans, but I like Jones as a likely lower-rostered asset that could pay some nice dividends in a favorable matchup. The rookie has been coming on of late, scoring a career-high 38.9 FD points on Wednesday against the Nuggets and averaging 25.1 FD points over his last eight games overall. 

Jones has shot 48.3 percent, including 50.0 percent from three-point range, over that span while providing a well-rounded line of 8.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.1 steals and 1.1 blocks across 31 minutes per contest. The Pistons could facilitate more of the same, as Detroit is allowing the eighth-most FD points per game to power forwards (48.9), along with the 10th-most points in the paint per game (46.8). 

Tristan Thompson, SAC at CHA ($4,800)

As mentioned earlier, Richaun Holmes will miss Friday's game due to an eye injury, a development that will thrust Thompson into a larger role than usual, if not an outright start. The veteran filled in admirably for Holmes when the latter exited the Wednesday's game against the Magic early, racking up 31 FD points on the strength of a 14-point, 10-rebound double-double in just 21 minutes. Thompson has five tallies of over 20 FD points this season despite averaging just 14.2 minutes per contest overall, and the matchup against the Hornets could hardly line up better.

 Centers have dominated Charlotte down low all season, with the Hornets surrendering an Eastern Conference-high 58.5 FD points per game to fives, along with the second-highest offensive efficiency to the position as well (35.7 percent). Additionally, they allow the third-most points in the paint per game (48.9), an area of the floor where Thompson is scoring over 75.0 percent of his points.

ALSO CONSIDER: Harrison Barnes, SAC at CHA ($6,000); Eric Gordon, HOU vs. MIL ($5,200)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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