This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Monday's eight-game slate kicks off at 7:00 p.m. EST. The games are bunched up, with the latest tip-off occurring at 8:00 p.m. As a result, you have little time to make late-swap pivots as the night progresses.
SLATE OVERVIEW
CLE (-8.5) vs. NOP O/U: 212.5
IND (-1.5) vs. LAC O/U: 218
PHI (-3.5) vs. MEM O/U: 220
BOS (-3.5) vs. MIA O/U: 210.5
ATL (-2) vs. TOR O/U: 218.5
NYK (-5.5) vs. SAC O/U: 214.5
GSW (-10.5) @ HOU O/U: 230.5
POR (-3.5) @ OKC O/U: 217.5
The two late games hold very popular DFS selections, and I'm particularly heavy with Portland and Oklahoma City players. They'll get mentioned in a bit, but I expect Anfernee Simons and Josh Giddey to have the highest roster rates tonight, and they are chalk spots for your cash lineups. I have almost no love for Boston, Miami or Memphis, as those games have lower predicted totals and most of their salaries don't correlate well with our lineup builds.
INJURIES
NOP Jonas Valanciunas (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
NOP Brandon Ingram (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
NOP Josh Hart (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
The Pelicans play early, so we should know more about these tags before lock. Pivot to Willy Hernangomez ($5,100) for JoVal and Herbert Jones ($5,900) for Ingram. Jose Alvarado ($4,600) has also received an increased run amid these absences.
IND Malcolm Brogdon (Achilles) - OUT
IND Myles Turner (foot) - OUT
IND Goga Bitadze (foot) - QUESTIONABLE
Chris Duarte ($5,300) and Isaiah Jackson ($4,700) are the low-cost pivots for Indiana, and we'll likely mention additional spots later in the article.
MIA Jimmy Butler (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
MIA Kyle Lowry (personal) - OUT
If Butler and Lowry sit, pivoting to the starters is a wise play, and Gabe Vincent ($5,000) will continue to be a budget sub for Lowry. Max Strus ($4,700) would also see more time in a Butler absence.
SAC De'Aaron Fox (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
SAC Terence Davis (wrist) - OUT
SAC Marvin Bagley (ankle) - OUT
The Kings may deliver the best values amid these absences. They'll get a mention later in the article, but Chimezie Metu ($4,000) and Buddy Hield ($5,300) are the low-cost pivots in this scenario.
GSW Draymond Green (back) - OUT
GSW Otto Porter (foot) - OUT
The best low-cost pivots in this spot are Jonathan Kuminga ($4,400) and Kevon Looney ($4,900).
HOU Kevin Porter (COVID-19 Protocols) - QUESTIONABLE
After some roster shuffling, Garrison Mathews ($3,600) will be the newcomer to the starting five if Porter is out.
OKC Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (ankle) - OUT
Tre Mann ($3,500) and Ty Jerome ($4,700) are my favorite budget adds for SGA, but your top addition in this scenario should always be Josh Giddey ($5,700). Overall, a variance-ridden spot, but Giddey is chalk.
ELITE PLAYERS
We have two players above $10k tonight, and I am keen to bypass both of them due to cheaper options at their positions to hit. My first selection up top is Stephen Curry ($9,300). That game has the highest projected total on the slate, and it's a very soft spot against the Rockets. Trae Young ($9,000) is my second-favorite elite point guard despite a lack of dependable metrics for him against Toronto. Young's salary puts him over the top, however.
We're also keen on investigating elite options for Toronto, with Fred VanVleet ($8,700) and Pascal Siakam ($8,900) leading the charge.
Also consider: Julius Randle, NYK ($8,300) vs. SAC, Christian Wood, HOU ($8,200) vs. GSW
EXPECTED CHALK AND CORE TARGETS
Darius Garland, CLE ($8,100) vs. NOP
Some might scoff at the price, but Garland needs just a slight boost in his seasonal averages to meet 5x value at this salary, and he comes at a discount over the aforementioned elite guards. He's also in an exploitable spot against the short-handed Pelicans, who are playing without their best playmakers. A potential assist boost looms large for Garland.
PORTLAND VALUE @ OKC
SG CJ McCollum ($7,800)
PG/SG Anfernee Simons ($6,900)
C Jusuf Nurkic ($7,900)
Losing Gilgeous-Alexander is never good news for the Thunder, and it will force many players to step up offensively. They'll be more organized on the defensive end, but the above-average total and narrow spread indicate a shot-for-shot battle that benefits all aspects of Portland's starting lineup. Simons is especially attractive with the lowest salary of this trio.
Caris LeVert, IND ($7,200) vs. LAC
This is an excellent spot for LeVert, who will lead Indy's backcourt against a Clippers team playing their eighth consecutive road game. Expect LeVert to excel against a potentially gassed squad that desperately needs a break.
Also consider: Evan Mobley, CLE ($7,200) vs. NOP, Tyrese Haliburton, SAC ($7,700) @ NYK
VALUE PLAYS
Tyrese Maxey, PHI ($6,000) vs. MEM
Maxey remains at a great salary, and he only needs 30 FP to pay off. He's been plagued by some tepid performances recently, but he's exceeded 30 FP in three of his past five games, which included an excellent 41.4 FDFP showing against the Lakers.
Harrison Barnes, SAC ($6,000) @ NYK
The loss of Marvin Bagley puts additional pressure on Sacramento's frontcourt, which means a potential uptick for Barnes. His numbers have jumped around recently, but he led the team in scoring two games ago and has scored more than 20 points in three of his last five games. Excellent rebounding numbers bring him well above 30 FP if he can keep up the shot volume.
Luguentz Dort, OKC ($5,000) vs. POR
Dort and Giddey will both be popular, but it's hard to find better value spots with SGA out of the lineup. Dort is a great second option over Giddey, who will be massively popular. I expect above a 50 percent roster rate in most contests for Giddey, and while Dort will be popular as well, he won't hold a percentage that high. Dort also has the potential to outscore Giddey if his shot heats up. Kenrich Williams ($3,700) also warrants consideration as a punt play if you are spending up on several elites.
Also consider: Robert Covington, POR ($5,300) @ SAC
