FanDuel NBA: Monday Value Plays

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Published on May 2, 2022

We kick off the week with two Game 1's. The first second-round matchup has a start time of 7:30 p.m. EDT with the Joel Embiid-less Sixers taking on the Heat.

SLATE OVERVIEW

MIA (-7.5) vs. PHI O/U: 208.5

PHO (-6) vs. DAL O/U: 214

INJURIES

PHI Joel Embiid (concussion) - OUT

The Sixers will be without Embiid for at least two games, and possibly longer. We'll identify some of the resulting favorite plays later in the article. The best value pivot for Embiid is a little cloudier, but DeAndre Jordan ($3,500) has the playoff experience that might give him a leg up over the other big men on the Philly bench.

MIA Jimmy Butler (knee) - PROBABLE
MIA Tyler Herro (illness) - PROBABLE
MIA Kyle Lowry (hamstring) - OUT
MIA Max Strus (hamstring) - QUESTIONABLE
MIA P.J. Tucker (calf) - QUESTIONABLE
MIA Caleb Martin (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE

Butler and Herro are nothing to worry about as it appears they are both good to go. The rest of the rotation is a little unclear, but we can fire up Gabe Vincent ($4,800) as a budget pivot without much difficulty.

ELITE PLAYERS

We have a trio of top performers above $10k for today's slate, but for my money, Luka Doncic ($11,000) is the best option, ahead of Jimmy Butler ($10,700) and Chris Paul ($10,100). Concerns about Butler's injury and Paul's lower floor lead me to Doncic as the most solid elite for the core for your optimal lineup. Luka has posted two scores of 44 FDFP in his two matchups against the Suns though, so we'll need a bit more to make his salary worthwhile.

James Harden ($9,800) is a little pricey but deserves a bit of exposure. I like Devin Booker ($8,800) better as the next man up at the guard position, however. His production against the Mavericks has been all over the map, but after a bit of a rest, he should find his typical scoring level as he gets back from the hamstring injury that hobbled him in the first round.

In the absence of Embiid, you have two elite centers to choose from, and I like Bam Adebayo ($7,400) over Deandre Ayton for a couple of reasons. For one, Adebayo has been given the gift of dual eligibility, following FanDuel's trend of providing big men with a bit more versatility in the postseason. Secondly, the Heat's frontcourt is a bit banged up, so expect Adebayo to carry a much bigger load in Game 1.

EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS

Tobias Harris, PHI ($8,000) @ MIA

Harris' usage jumps up to 28.3 percent when Embiid is off the floor, and he leads all other Sixers in this metric. It would be reasonable to say that Harris is the key to the Sixers getting through the first two games of this series, and with Miami's frontcourt a little thin, the Sixers should be able to capitalize when Harris rotates back into the lineup after the second unit gets their crack. I would look past Harris' history against Miami - this is a special circumstance.

Tyrese Maxey, PHI ($7,500) @ MIA

Maxey is another player who sees a sizeable usage jump without Embiid on the floor, and alongside Harden, the Sixers transform into more of a backcourt-focused offense in that scenario. He helped take down the pesky Raptors with a 25-point showing in Game 6, and if he can keep draining threes, Maxey should be well worth his slightly elevated salary.

Jalen Brunson, DAL ($7,300) @ PHO

Now more than ever, the Mavericks need a sold second option behind Doncic, as the Suns will be relentless in defending the All-Star. Brunson can inflict damage off the ball and has also upped his ball distribution recently. It's his shot volume that sets him apart, however. During the series with Utah, he averaged a whopping 20.4 attempts per game.

Mikal Bridges, PHO ($6,500) vs. DAL

Bridges' dual eligibility makes him an easy play on FanDuel, and you're hoping for the kind of upside he demonstrated in Game 4 against the Pelicans when he erupted for 31 points. His other totals in the first round aren't quite enough to justify this price, which is one reason why I like him a little better as a tournament play.

Also consider: Dorian Finney-Smith, DAL ($6,300) @ PHO

VALUE PLAYS

Victor Oladipo, MIA ($5,000) vs. PHI

The friction between Jimmy Butler and Oladipo is well documented, but it's in the team's best interest to have them share the floor on occasion, especially amid Kyle Lowry's absence. Oladipo has a unique skill set that complements Butler and Tyler Herro, although Butler might not be quick to admit that fact. Oladipo's impact will be felt most on the second unit, which is one reason why his salary is as low as it is. He's a bona fide slate-breaker in the value category.

Cameron Johnson, PHO ($4,700) vs. DAL

Johnson will come off the bench as usual, and for this salary, he doesn't have to do much to be worthwhile. Aside from a poor Game 2, Johnson showed up with solid totals in the first round, and although Jae Crowder ($5,100) is also a good way to go among Phoenix's supporting cast, Johnson can save you a bit more cash.

Paul Reed, PHI ($4,100) @ MIA

I would be remiss in not bringing up Reed, although I think Jordan is the better Embiid pivot. There's always a chance Reed shows up in a big way, although that doesn't happen often. I'm already backtracking on thoughts of rostering Jordan and Tobias Harris as I type the endorsement, but Reed does enjoy that sweet dual eligibility, and if you opt to spend up at the top, he's a GPP play that could possibly pay off.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.