This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Vigilance before lock will be the name of the game Thursday. We'll talk about that and much more in today's article.
SLATE OVERVIEW
PHI (-2) vs. TOR O/U: 213.5
UTA (-9) vs. IND O/U: 219
LAC (-2.5) vs. MIA O/U: 214.5
INJURIES
TOR Pascal Siakam (rest) - OUT
Siakam will take a day off for the second game of the back-to-back. Precious Achiuwa ($4,900) may start and revert to his previous production before Siakam's return.
PHI Joel Embiid (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
PHI Tobias Harris (COVID-19 Protocols) - QUESTIONABLE
PHI Seth Curry (foot) - QUESTIONABLE
Harris' status is the biggest question of the night on this slim slate. If he plays, precious values like Furkan Korkmaz ($5,800) and Georges Niang ($4,800) are no longer viable. If you plan on playing the slate, you need to pay attention to this spot before lock. Andre Drummond ($9,100) is in line for a productive night, and I will add Tyrese Maxey ($7,000) and Shake Milton ($6,200) with a bit of caution since the entire team will be in flux. I will lower Maxey and Milton's exposure if Curry is back.
IND Caris LeVert (back) - QUESTIONABLE
IND Malcolm Brogdon - POSSIBLE REST
Since Brogdon just came back and had a monster game Wednesday, there's a slight possibility that he'll sit. He will be a very chalky play if he's good to go. I am a fan of former Oregon Duck Chris Duarte ($5,100) as someone who will absorb LeVert's output if he ends up sitting out.
MIA Jimmy Butler (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
Butler is another player to keep an eye on. Since he plays in the nightcap, Miami will be a prime late-swap team because we may very well get information later about other players taking a seat on the back-to-back. If Butler doesn't go, Gabe Vincent ($3,500) will get more play, and it looks like Caleb Martin ($3,600) will be available as well. The output would flow to Miami's other starters, and we'll look at those options below. The team could punt this game altogether with multiple scratches, so keep an eye on this roster as well.
LAC Marcus Morris (knee) - OUT
I am a fan of the Clippers tonight, and we'll look for smash spots on the squad below.
Due to the small slate size, we will eliminate the "Elite Player" section and include the spend-up options in the chalk section.
EXPECTED CHALK AND CORE TARGETS
Paul George, LAC ($10,300) vs. MIA
Even if Miami punts this game, you have to like Paul George as the gold standard on this slate. He is averaging close to 50 FP per over his past five games, and thanks to a night off, his salary dipped $500 since he last appeared, making him all the more viable. He has come dangerously close to a triple-double in almost every game this season, and it's only a matter of time before he hits it. He has four double-doubles to his credit already.
Domantas Sabonis, IND ($8,800) @ UTA
I chose Sabonis as one of my favorite elites for Wednesday's colossal slate, and he came through with a 20-point, 19-rebound double-double. They face a challenging back-to-back game against Rudy Gobert, but I think Sabonis will still fare well here. He only met Gobert once last season and put up 20 points and nine rebounds, but we shouldn't put much stock in that metric since it occurred nine months ago. Sabonis will need some help inside with Gobert, which is why I also favor Myles Turner ($7,400) as a credible center pivot in this spot, especially on a slate where centers like Drummond and Gobert will be very chalky. Turner is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career, and he is contributing everywhere, including from beyond the arc.
Donovan Mitchell, UTA ($8,600) vs. IND
It's striking to me how cheap Mitchell is this season. He vaulted up to the 10k level at specific points last year, and his upside merits a slightly higher salary. I am sliding past Malcolm Brogdon ($8,000) because I am not entirely confident that he will play, but I will gladly pivot to him for $600 less if he suits up. I expect both players to have very similar results, but the absence of Caris LeVert will open things up and favor Mitchell's slashing and sharpshooting skills.
Fred VanVleet, TOR ($8,100) @ PHI
Dollar-for-dollar, VanVleet is incredibly dependable and will face a Philly team that isn't quite set up to defend him, although Tyrese Maxey will do his best to contain the standout guard. VanVleet has eclipsed 40 FP in three of his last five games, and that's precisely where we need him to be at this salary. If his shot volume stays high, he could undoubtedly go north of that number. A guy worth mentioning who will benefit from Siakam's absence is OG Anunoby ($7,600), who experienced a slight dip in production upon Siakam's return but will be a solid offensive and defensive presence without him in the lineup.
Tyler Herro, MIA ($6,400) @ LAC
I expect Jimmy Butler to sit, which will put Herro in a spot to produce massive numbers. A Butler sit could also spell a sit for Bam Adebayo ($8,200), who has been banged up. Increased playing time will also come to Duncan Robinson ($3,900), but I would restrict him to GPPs. If you're unable to keep a close eye on this game, Herro is as dependable as you'll get at the time of publishing.
VALUE PLAYS
As usual, refer to the injury section for key value pivots.
KEY CLIPPERS
Reggie Jackson ($6,300)
Nicolas Batum ($6,100)
Eric Bledsoe ($4,900)
Terance Mann ($5,000)
I think at least one of these players is worthy of roster insertion, but I like Terance Mann due to eligibility at SF, a scarce position on the slate. Both Jackson and Bledsoe have dual guard eligibility, so they have some versatility as well. Bledsoe carries a bit more risk, as Jackson has been on a tear recently and has a reliable floor. Jackson's last four games have scattered totals from 30 FP up to 47 FP, so his upside is very evident. Batum is very dependent on shot volume and three-point success, but he also has PF eligibility, making him very easy to accommodate. Most of my lineups will have two of these players.
Jeremy Lamb, IND ($3,800) @ UTA
Lamb will come off the bench but should see close to 30 minutes without LeVert in the lineup. Lamb's rostership will also be at or below five percent in most contests, making him an excellent contrarian option on an Indiana team with several popular plays. There may also be some movement for Torrey Craig ($4,100), but I like Lamb better at a slight discount.
To summarize, it's critical to keep an eye on Philly and Miami to have success on this slate tonight. The best strategy is to get clear on what Philly is doing before lock, and if Harris plays, move more salary over to Miami and invest in someone like Adebayo, who can provide a lot of room if we need to pivot over to scrubs in the event of a Miami punt. We can also modify some plays for IND/UTA upon breaking news for Philly.
