This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Thursday's five-game slate kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET, and at first glance, a stars-and-scrubs approach might be the best way to go with your lineup construction.
SLATE OVERVIEW
TOR (-3) vs. CLE O/U: 214.5
MEM (-12) v.s IND O/U: 235.5
MIL (-12) vs. WAS O/U: 233.5
CHI (-1) @ NOP O/U: 228.5
DEN (-3) vs. PHO O/U: 231
We have enough low-cost value to consider an elite load-up, as the middle of the player pool isn't differing us the usual worthwhile savings relative to production in the 6-7k range. While I usually start with my best upside budget picks and fill in from there, I'm going to identify my elites first and then fill in with the many bargains available in the player pool.
INJURIES
TOR Gary Trent (toe) - QUESTIONABLE
TOR OG Anunoby (finger).- QUESTIONABLE
Trent's tag may clear later in the day, as he was able to practice Wednesday. Anunoby has been upgraded to questionable but will most likely miss another game. Refer to the starting five and stick with the first unit.
IND Malcolm Brogdon (rest) - PROBABLE
IND Chris Duarte (toe) - QUESTIONABLE
IND Isaiah Jackson (head) - QUESTIONABLE
IND Jalen Smith (illness) - QUESTIONABLE
Brogdon was a surprise scratch for Wednesday's game, but it's unlikely that he would miss a third straight game unless there is some issue we are unaware of. I have manually switched all of these tags to questionable, as we have no new word on the rest of the affected players at this time. It appears that the frontcourt may be the most affected, so a move to Goga Bitadze ($6,000) or Terry Taylor ($4,500) would be the wisest pivot.
MEM Ja Morant (knee) - OUT
With Morant out, Desmond Bane ($7,500) delivered, as did Dillon Brooks ($5,900) and De'Anthony Melton ($5,400). This trio will remain excellent output absorbers for Morant.
WAS Kyle Kuzma (knee) - OUT
It's time to reconsider Rui Hachimura ($4,600) in this spot, although Kristaps Porzingis ($8,300) is sure to have an increased role with Kuzma unavailable.
MIL Khris Middleton (wrist) - OUT
Wesley Matthews ($4,000) started for Middleton and played fine, and thanks to the low salary, he has some value as a budget option.
CHI DeMar DeRozan (adductor) - QUESTIONABLE
I'd expect Zach LaVine ($7,200) to pick up most of the slack if DeRozan misses.
NOP Brandon Ingram (hamstring) - DOUBTFUL
The Pelicans have tried various methods to contend with Ingram's absence, but it's best to just stick with the starting five in this spot. Check in later today to see what the team offers in the first unit.
ELITE PLAYERS
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400) is my top elite option against the Wizards. A few players will benefit from Middleton's absence, and the gap will almost certainly help Giannis' bottom line.
Devin Booker ($9,400) and Darius Garland ($9,500) sit at similar prices, and we've projected almost identical totals for them. I view the duo as interchangeable this evening, although Garland may end up with the lower rostership of the two.
We round out the elite column with CJ McCollum ($8,000), who will be a major catalyst for the Pelicans offense sans Brandon Ingram. The Bulls could be without DeRozan, and McCollum would end up in a very exploitable situation if that occurs.
EXPECTED CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS
As usual, pay attention to the injury pivots mentioned above.
TORONTO VALUE
I am loading up with Fred VanVleet ($7,800), Pascal Siakam ($8,500) and Scottie Barnes ($7,800) at home against the Cavaliers. I wouldn't stack all three, but I can easily see a combo of Siakam and either VanVleet or Barnes. Although the projected total is the lowest on the slate, the Raptors' production will center around this trio, and all of them have decent histories against the Cavs.
Tyrese Haliburton, IND ($7,500) @ MEM
Regardless of Brogdon's status, Haliburton will return to action and should be firing on all cylinders against Memphis, who will continue to operate without their marquee player. Prior to his brief absence, Haliburton was a nightly double-double threat who had the potential to explode if his threes found the bottom of the basket. At this salary, we are playing for upside in hopes that he takes advantage of the Morant absence and a potentially rusty shot from Brogdon.
Nikola Vucevic, CHI ($6,700) @ NOP
This will be a rough-and-tumble matchup inside between Vucevic and Jonas Valanciunas ($8,400). JoVal is too expensive for this matchup, but Vucevic could be a steal at below 7k in this game. The Pelicans are struggling without Ingram, and although the Bulls may be shorthanded, they have the backcourt tools to get Vucevic the ball. He could also win the rebound war.
Bobby Portis, MIL ($5,000) vs. WAS
It makes perfect sense to target Portis amid Middleton's absence, as his production is bound to get a boost. Portis' numbers have suffered due to Brook Lopez's return, but Portis is ideally suited as a great pivot for Middleton, especially if Wesley Mathews struggles at the outset.
Will Barton, DEN ($4,200) vs. PHO
Barton's numbers have been all over the place recently, so rostering him means that you're embracing a good bit of variance. Despite the rocky lines, he's enjoyed some of his best games of the season against the Suns, averaging almost 30 FP against them over two games. Something about the scheme seems to favor Barton's skill set, so I am willing to take a flier on him in tournaments.
Corey Kispert, WAS ($4,000) @ MIL
Kispert might be the ideal pivot for Kyle Kuzma, and could end up less popular next to more visible options like Porzingis or Hachimura. He's averaged 32.5 minutes over Kuzma's two-game absence, averaging just below 20 FDFP over that span. He hits 5x value exactly with that average against his current salary, making him a viable salary-saver against your spend-up options.
