This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
After a postseason full of twist and turns, we've reached the start of the NBA Finals, one that will feature two teams participating in the final leg of the race for the Larry O'Brien Trophy for the first time in decades. The overarching storyline as the series begins involves the health, or lack thereof, of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who's listed as doubtful with the hyperextended knee he suffered during Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Hawks. With his availability unlikely to start the series, the Bucks will have to continue turning to the multiple players that stepped up in Games 5 and 6 against Atlanta in order to avoid falling into an early hole.
With just one game on the ledger, we're dealing with FanDuel's single-game contest rosters, which are comprised as follows:
· MVP- (Garners points at 2x the normal rate)
· STAR- (Garners points at 1.5x the normal rate)
· PRO- (Garners points at 1.2x the normal rate)
· Two Utility spots- (Garner points at normal rate)
With the pricing also being different than in conventional FanDuel contests on multi-game slates and top players inevitably headed for heavy rostering, there are definitely strategic elements particular to single-game lineups. Finding value plays for the two utility spots is key, as it enables you to fill out the multiplier spots with some of the top projected producers.
Slate Overview
Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns (Projected total: 218.0 points)
The two regular-season games between these teams, both one-point Suns wins, finished with totals of 255 and 249 points. However, with Antetokounmpo doubtful, the offensive expectations go down for Milwaukee, especially since he averaged 40.0 points per contest against Phoenix. The Bucks averaged 120.5 points per game in the last two conference finals contests against the Hawks with Antetokounmpo off the floor, but they'll likely face a much stiffer test against the Suns, who allow just 106.6 points per home game including the postseason.
Positional Breakdown
FanDuel single-game rosters don't have traditional positions that match those of a starting five, so we'll instead break down some candidates for the top three multiplier positions:
UPDATE: Antetokounmpo has now been announced as available and starting in Game 1. He becomes a candidate for the MVP slot, although those wishing to exercise some caution could opt to go the STAR route with him in case he suffers an in-game setback or is less explosive than usual.
MVP (2x): With Antetokounmpo expected to be out, Chris Paul ($15,000) and Khris Middleton ($14,500) are the two primary candidates for this spot. Paul wrapped up the conference finals against the Clippers with a haul of 66.8 FD points across 34 minutes in Game 6. Middleton posted 61.6 and 49.3 FD points in Games 5 and 6 against the Hawks without Giannis on the floor and is averaging 48.5 FD points per contest since Game 3 of the semifinal round against the Nets. It's noteworthy Paul averaged 25.0 points over his two games against the Bucks during the regular season, his highest total against any team.
STAR (1.5x): Whichever of the two stars mentioned above doesn't make your MVP spot is the prime candidate here, but Devin Booker ($13,500) and Jrue Holiday ($13,000) are two excellent alternatives. Booker has been struggling with his shot for multiple games and drained only 34.6 percent of his attempts over the last five games against the Clippers. Nevertheless, he does have two tallies of over 60 FD points this postseason, a reminder of his vast ceiling. Meanwhile, Holiday scored 52.7 and 63.3 FD points in Games 5 and 6 against the Hawks with Antetokounmpo out, draining 49.5 percent of his attempts over that span.
PRO (1.2x): Any of the players mentioned for the STAR position would be a natural for this spot as well. Deandre Ayton ($12,500) and Brook Lopez ($11,500) are also candidates here, as Ayton is averaging 36.5 FD points over the last 10 postseason games dating back to Game 1 of the semifinal-round series against the Nuggets. For his part, Lopez scored 57.4 and 28.2 FD points in his first two games without Antetokounmpo and averaged 13.5 shot attempts per contest in the process.
Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written (usually late morning Eastern time), check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL (knee)/ Status: DOUBTFUL
With Antetokounmpo considered unlikely to play for the third straight postseason contest, the quartet of Middleton, Holiday, Bobby Portis and Lopez should once again see elevated usage and opportunity.
Elite Players
The two highest salaries on the slate, at least among healthy players, belong to Chris Paul and Middleton. As already detailed in Positional Breakdown section, each player has proven capable of delivering elite scores on multiple occasions this postseason.
The players directly underneath Middleton in salary – Booker and Holiday – are also capable of breaking out for ceiling games, with Holiday in particular stepping up in the last pair of contests sans Antetokounmpo.
Expected Chalk
The likes of Ayton, Lopez and Bobby Portis ($9,500) should be very popular due to their expected usage and body of work in recent games.
Key Values
Note: On a multi-game slate, I typically try to highlight players that would be considered under-the-radar plays in this section. Naturally, with such a limited player pool, there will be very few low-rostered players that are likely to also be viable from a DFS perspective, so I'll instead focus on two of the best candidates to provide a strong return relative to salary for the two Utility spots in single-game lineups:
Jae Crowder, PHO ($10,500)
Crowder makes for an interesting tournament play in Game 1, as his production has been up and down during the postseason. The floor-spacing big has eclipsed 20 FD points on 10 occasions during the playoffs, which means he's also been under that mark in six contests. Crowder has been over 30 FD points in three of those 10 games, and Milwaukee has allowed 53.1 FD points per contest to players with power forward designations over the last five games while giving up an average of 27.7 FD points per contest to the Hawks' John Collins in the ECF.
Bobby Portis, MIL
Portis averaged 35.5 FD points over Games 5 and 6 against the Hawks as the starting power forward in place of Antetokounmpo, putting up 17.0 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.5 steals. The floor-spacing big man should once again run with the first unit to begin the finals, giving him a chance to outpace his very reasonable salary, even though the Suns are a tough defensive matchup overall.
