This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
Alex Barutha
Deandre Ayton over 26.5 points + rebounds (-106) at Thunder -- FanDuel, 12:17 PM CT
Phoenix is down Chris Paul and Cameron Payne. On/off-court stats suggests Ayton will be taking on a bigger role in the offense as a result. With both players off the court, Ayton sees a 4.7 percent usage bump to tune of +3.8 points and +6.2 rebounds per 36 minutes, resulting in averages of 24.2 points and 18.8 boards per 36. The rebounds increasing that dramatically seems a little fluky, but the positive indicators combined with OKC's weak frontline mean a big game could be in store for Ayton.
Nick Whalen
Same Game Parlay (+276): Phoenix Suns at OKC Thunder UNDER 218.5; Thunder +10.0 –- FanDuel Sportsbook, 11:45 AM CT
Betting against the Suns hasn't exactly been a profitable strategy (Phoenix is 32-26 ATS on the year), but coming out of the break they'll be without Chris Paul for the first time all season. Phoenix has enough depth and talent to figure it out, but in the short term, I think there could be a semi-rough adjustment period. Paul was the heart and soul of the offense, and prior to the break, he'd been playing huge minutes on a near-nightly basis. While Devin Booker is capable of providing adequate playmaking, it could take a few games for him to re-adjust to that role. With Phoenix likely to struggle – at least by its standards – on offense, I like the total to go under and OKC, which will have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back in the mix, to keep this one under a 10-point spread.
