Five Sleepers Based on ADP for the 2024 Fantasy Basketball Season
Finding value in the later rounds of your NBA Fantasy draft is essential for building a winning team. As draft season heats up, savvy managers are on the lookout for sleepers—those under-the-radar players who can outperform their fantasy basketball average draft position (ADP). In this article, I'll spotlight five players with an ADP after pick 100 who could be the steals of your draft. These picks have the potential to deliver significant value and give your team the edge needed for a championship run.
Khris Middleton, Bucks 
Yahoo ADP: 113
I understand the hesitation to draft Middleton, especially if you've rostered him recently. He's dealt with injuries, playing 88 total games over the past two years. This offseason, he underwent surgery on both of his ankles. He just turned 33 years old. He's no longer the No. 2 option on the Bucks.
This ADP is an overreaction. Middleton's stats are deflated due to his injuries. I remain convinced he's a walking 20/5/5. Even if he's not, what do you lose drafting him at pick 113? What do you lose even drafting him around pick 86? Quietly, that's where he ranked in 8-category per-game value last year, averaging 15/5/5 in 27 minutes.
Here are Middleton's numbers the past two seasons when seeing at least 30 minutes:
- 2022-23: 22.8 points and 2.5 threes on 49/39/88 shooting, 7.0 assists, 3.1 rebounds (8 games).
- 2023-24: 18.4 points and 2.1 threes on 52/40/83 shooting, 6.4 assists, 5.1 rebounds and 1.2 steals (26 games).
There are not many players around pick 100 that have proven upside like that. And his well-rounded skillset means he can fit almost any build in any fantasy format, making him a great fantasy basketball sleeper.
Kelly Olynyk, Raptors 
Yahoo ADP: 123
Fantasy die-hards know Olynyk is one of the better per-minute producers in the league, making him an undervalued fantasy basketball asset. He showed off a lot of that potential two seasons ago in Utah and again last season once he was traded to Toronto in February. In March and April of 2023-24, he averaged 13.8 points and 1.0 threes on 56/35/81 shooting, 6.3 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 1.3 steals in 29.0 minutes. Over the summer, he signed a two-year, $26 million extension with the Raptors.
Olynyk's ADP heading into this season reflects a difference of opinions on what his role will be. If you think he'll be a traditional backup, playing 18-22 minutes per night, there's no reason to draft him at all. If you think he has sixth-man upside to play 24-28 minutes per night, you could draft him inside the top 100. I'm on the optimistic side.
Starting center Jakob Poeltl has struggled to see more than 26 minutes per game. Chris Boucher hardly exists anymore. Ochai Agbaji -- is he good? I'm not sure, and he could also play small forward. To me, this leads to Olynyk seeing significant backup minutes at the two frontcourt positions. Considering he ranked 110th in 8-cat per-game value last year in 22.6 minutes, I'm fine gambling on him to improve at this ADP.
Watch Nick Whalen and Alex Barutha discuss the most difficult players to rank in fantasy basketball in 2024
Collin Sexton, Jazz 
Yahoo ADP: 125
Sexton's career has taken some twists and turns. It appeared he'd found his niche in Cleveland, but then the emergence of Darius Garland combined with a torn meniscus threw a wrench into the equation. He was shipped to Utah two seasons ago, where he played only 23.9 minutes per game while recovering from his injury and adjusting to a new team.
Last year, Sexton showed signs of life again and seemed to get on coach Will Hardy's good side in December. He started most of his 59 appearances from that month on, averaging 20.9 points and 1.8 threes on 50/41/86 shooting, 5.5 assists and 2.7 rebounds in 28.6 minutes. He was quietly second on the team in both points and assists per game for the whole season.
Lauri Markkanen will still be the Jazz's go-to man, and Keyonte George will make strides. But Sexton should still be considered a developmental priority at 25 years old, even if it's to just eventually trade him. I wouldn't consider his upside immense, but he's one of the best fantasy basketball picks after round 10, especially for managers looking for combo-guard stats.
Dennis Schroder, Nets 
Yahoo ADP: 131
Cam Thomas is the one catching all the headlines on the Nets and could be considered a sleeper in his own right if you relax the definition. I'm guessing he'll average something like 27 points and 4 assists per night. Aside from him, there's a significant lack of scoring and playmaking talent in Brooklyn.
That's where Schroder comes in. He already averaged 14 points and 6.1 assists in 31.1 minutes last year when the team had Mikal Bridges and some other playmaking talent like Spencer Dinwiddie, Dennis Smith and Lonnie Walker (I may be stretching the definition of talent, but you get the idea).
It was more than half a decade ago, but Schroder did provide some top-70 fantasy finishes as a leading playmaker on some subpar Hawks teams. And he had two top-100 seasons more recently with the Thunder and Lakers. I like his chances of having another mini bounceback. Plus, if Thomas misses any time, it's entirely Schroder's show.
Malcolm Brogdon, Wizards 
Yahoo ADP: 135
Unfortunately, I endorse drafting Brogdon with the final pick in your fantasy league. Maybe even the second-to-last pick.
Injuries to his elbow, knee, groin, hamstring and immune system allowed him to play just 39 games for the tanking Trail Blazers last year. He's only played more than 56 games three times in his eight-year career. He'll be turning 32 in December. All of these things work against him.
But is Brogdon actually Washington's best player? Being able to ask that question alone means he's in a great position to exceed his ADP. Who are you drafting after pick 100 that might be their team's best player? He will get hurt. He will probably get traded or rest at the end of the year. That shouldn't be of concern to you at this ADP. He averaged 20/7/5 when seeing 30+ minutes last year (21 games).
Watch Nick Whalen and Alex Barutha draft their favorite first year players from their fantasy basketball rookie rankings
Draft Strategy Tips
Check out RotoWire's How to Play Fantasy Basketball guide for a complete walkthrough, but here is some basic advice:
- Check out custom NBA Fantasy Projections and Fantasy Basketball Rankings
- Look into Fantasy Basketball Mock Drafts
- Listen to a Fantasy Basketball Podcast and watch Fantasy Basketball Videos
- Check in on Fantasy Basketball Player News
- Read Fantasy Basketball Articles
- Dive into RotoWire's Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit
- Study NBA Depth Charts
- See RotoWire's Fantasy Basketball Dynasty Rankings
