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Best Bets
James Harden under 3.5 threes (-164) vs. Mavericks
FanDuel, 4:03 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Harden is hitting 4.3 triples per game in this series at an absurd 50% clip. It would be one thing if he was getting easy looks all game, but 20 of his 34 attempts have been classified as "very tightly contested" or "tightly contested". The longer this goes on, the more likely it is he regresses to the mean. I'll take that bet tonight.
Celtics -4.5 first-quarter spread vs. Heat (-108)
DraftKings Sportsbook, 3pm CT
Nick Whalen: Boston has been able to jump out to fast starts in three of four games thus far, and they're plus-23 in the first quarter for the series. Through 48 first-quarter minutes, Boston holds a +22.8 NET rating, limiting Miami to just an 88.5 offensive rating. While the absence of Kristaps Porzingis hurts, it shouldn't be an issue against a Heat team down Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier and now Jaime Jaquez. With a closeout game at home, I fully expect Boston to come out with energy and start fast. There's also a case to be made that the Celtics – despite the NET rating -- haven't even played all that well to start games thus far in the series. Boston's first-quarter TrueShooting (51.5%) ranks 10th among playoff teams, while they're shooting just 41.7 percent from the field.
Caleb Martin over 19.5 Pts+Reb+Ast (-108) versus Boston Celtics
DraftKings, 3:40 PM CT
Kirien Sprecher: Martin has been hit or miss in the opening-round series, totaling 39 points and seven rebounds in Games 2 and 4 but only nine points and seven rebounds in Games 1 and 3. What's encouraging to me is Martin has averaged 37.0 minutes over the last three matchups and should have a clear path to increased usage with Jaime Jaquez (hip) joining Jimmy Butler (knee) and Terry Rozier (neck) on the sidelines. When Martin has played at least 35 minutes this season (14 times), he's averaged 15.3 points, 5.4 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game.
I'm taking the OVER on Jrue Holiday grabbing 4.5 rebounds
(FanDuel, -144, 3pm ET)
Ken Crites: As most folks know, Kristaps Porzingis is out for the Celtics. Boston coach Joe Mazzulla was already running with a short rotation in this series, and now the other four starters might see even more playing time to finish the series out tonight at home. Holiday has averaged 4.5 rebounds per game in the series, but 5.4 boards over the full season. When Porzingis is off the floor, Holiday has averaged 5.4 boards per 36 minutes. Holiday's shot has been off this whole series, so I expect him to focus on other parts of his game, particularly defense and rebounds. With the Heat starting offensively-challenged Delon Wright, expect Holiday to play well off Wright, help on D and cheat for rebounds.
