Free NBA Picks Today: Best Player Props and Bets for Game 1 of The Finals

Free NBA Picks Today: Best Player Props and Bets for Game 1 of The Finals

This article is part of our NBA Picks series.

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Best Bets

Pick one, or both: Kristaps Porzingis (+900) or PJ Washington (+1100) to lead the first quarter in made threes

DraftKings, 3:45 PM CT

Alex Barutha: Look, threes are one of the highest-variance stats we have. The volume at which players take and make them change constantly. To me, averaging at least two first-quarter three-point attempts puts you in this conversation. In the playoffs before he got hurt, Porzingis was taking 2.0 1Q threes, only behind Jayson Tatum (2.1) and Derrick White (2.2). Washington is in the same stratosphere (1.8), only behind Luka Doncic (3.4). If you wager both Porzingis and Washington every game of the series, it pays off as long as one of them hits (assuming the odds don't change drastically). All it takes is for one of these guys to go 2-for-3, and you're in the running. Plus, you get dead heat rules: A "Dead Heat Reduction" is calculated by dividing the odds proportionally among the number of winners for a particular position (i.e. finishing place) in the event. For example, in a two-way tie aka 'dead heat', your return would be half of what was originally projected in the bet slip at the time of bet placement. You don't even lose your whole wager if players tie!

Derrick Jones Jr. over 12.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125)

BetMGM, 3:38 PM CT

Alex Barutha: This is a fair number based on what we've seen Jones do during the playoffs (9.8 points, 3.6 rebounds and 1.4 assists in 31.2 MPG), so I don't mind it as a parlay filler. But if you subscribe to the belief that Daniel Gafford will take a more pronounced back seat to the springier and switchier Dereck Lively in this series, I have some numbers to give you. Per 36 minutes in the playoffs with Lively on the court, DJJ averages 13.1 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.8 assists -- easily clearing his prop.

Role Player Parlay: Josh Green over 0.5 threes + Payton Pritchard over 1.5 assists + Dereck Lively over 1.5 assists + Derrick Jones Jr. over 0.5 blocks (+950)

DraftKings, 3:17 PM CT

Alex Barutha: 

  • Prior to Dallas' closeout game against the Timberwolves, Green had made at least one three-pointer in 12 straight contests. So, I was surprised to see his mark for over 0.5 threes at -140.
  • Pritchard: In the playoffs, he totaled six assists in 29 minutes sharing the court with Kristaps Porzingis prior to the latter's injury. That's a great rate, so I'll take the risk to build a bit of a low-stakes parlay.
  • Lively: Has gone over 1.5 assists in five straight and six of the past seven
  • DJJ: Averages 2.0 blocks per 36 minutes with Lively on the court

I'm taking the OVER on Jrue Holiday scoring 12.5 points

(-122, DraftKings, 12:30pm EST)

Ken Crites: After a slow start in to the playoffs, Holiday has been on a heater.  Over his last 11 playoff games, the beefy guard has averaged 14.5 points per game while shooting an efficient 53.6 percent from the field.  Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown trust Holiday.  When those scoring forwards get doubled, they know they can trust Holiday to knock down the corner three.  I also expect the 6-foot-4 Holiday to bully Kyrie Irving on the block, when he gets the chance.  Everyone is talking about what a great match Luka are Kyrie are, but no one mentions Kyrie's below-average-defense.  During the regular season, Dallas ranked a poor 24th in fantasy-points-allowed to point guards and 15th in FP's allowed to shooting guards.  The Mavs can't double everyone – look for Holiday to get some wide open shots.  The K-Train is 35-28 in the season, feel free to fade.

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ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Alex Barutha
Alex is RotoWire's Chief NBA Editor. He writes articles about daily fantasy, year-long fantasy and sports betting. You can hear him on the RotoWire NBA Podcast, Sirius XM, VSiN and other platforms. He firmly believes Robert Covington is the most underrated fantasy player of the past decade.
Ken
An early RotoWire contributor from the 90's, K-Train returns with the grace of Gheorghe Muresan and the wisdom of Joe Gibbs. Ken is a two-time FSWA award winner and a co-host on the RW NBA Podcast. Championships incude: 2016 RW Staff NBA Keeper, 2019 RW Staff NFL Ottoneu Keeper, 2022-23 SiriusXM NBA Experts, 2022-23 SiriusXM NBA Kamla Keeper and 2023-24 FSGA NBA Expert Champions. Ken still owns a RotoNews shirt.
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