This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
Two intriguing Game 5s are on the slate for Tuesday. The Nuggets are in danger of being bounced by the red-hot Jazz, and the Mavericks will look to secure a second straight victory without Kristaps Porzginis available. Below, I outline a pick for each contest.
Odds are from FanDuel and are as accurate as 12:37 p.m. CT; Statistics are from NBA.com, Basketball-Reference and Cleaning The Glass.
Nuggets vs. 
Jazz (-2.5); 219
The Pick: Paul Millsap over 19.5 points + rebounds + assists (-113)
The Nuggets are doing plenty well on offense, scoring 122.1 points per 100 possessions. But their defense has been atrocious, allowing the Jazz to score 135.0 points per 100 possessions and have an effective field-goal percentage of 61.6 (only slightly less efficient than Steph Curry in 2017-18).
Coach Michael Malone, seemingly frustrated with Michael Porter Jr.'s defensive effort, played him just 23 minutes during Game 4, which resulted in Paul Millsap seeing 35 minutes. Millsap is a far superior defensive player. During the regular season, when Millsap was on the court, the Nuggets allowed just 106.3 points per 100, while Porter lineups gave up 115.7 points.
Ultimately, I believe coach Malone would rather go down swinging with Millsap out there putting in good defensive effort. I'm banking on Millsap seeing big minutes and cracking 19.5 P+R+A. Per 36 minutes, he's right on that mark in this series, averaging 13.3 points, 5.0 rebounds and 1.8 assists.
Mavericks vs. 
Clippers (-7.5); 235.5
The Pick: Mavericks +7.5 (-106)
Through four games, these teams have played extremely close, with the Clippers' offensive rating of 118.7 insignificantly above the Mavericks' 118.4 offensive rating. Dallas won Game 4 without the services of Kristaps Porzingis, and he'll be out again for Game 5. But the reality is, the Mavericks have played much of this series without Porzingis. The big man has seen only 94 minutes, behind Seth Curry, Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, Luka Doncic and Tim Hardway.
With Porzingis off the court, Dallas still has a +1.6 net rating in the matchup. They haven't needed him to be competitive. Some of that may be due to the struggles of Paul George (29.0 FG%), and if he turns it on, the series could end quickly. But I'm not ready to think Dallas is 7.5 points worse than the Clippers until I see it, and the Mavericks lost the two games in the series by just a combined 16 points. Plenty of bettors will be banking on regression for both teams leading to a Clippers victory, but I still don't think -7.5 is good value for LA in that case.
