This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
Three roundtable participants offer up their best bets:
Alex Barutha: Spurs (-149) at Hornets -- BetMGM 10:07 AM CT
I can understand where this number came from on the surface. The Spurs are on the second night of a back-to-back, losing to the Pacers 116-111 at home. San Antonio is also expected to remain without LaMarcus Aldridge due to a shoulder injury. However, the Hornets are expected to be without Devonte' Graham (ankle), and that's devastating for them.
The Spurs have actually been good without Aldridge -- their net rating is 6.5 points per 100 possessions better with him off the court. And San Antonio's most-frequent non-Aldridge lineup is a more-than-nice +13.5 per 100 possessions in 275 minutes.
You can't make the same argument for the Hornets without Graham. His individual presence is about as crucial as any player on any team, and he's single-handedly the reason the Hornets will probably hit the over on their expected win total (they need just three more wins). Charlotte is +12.6 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court, and the most-frequent non-Graham lineup is -29.1 points (!) per 100 possessions in 202 minutes. There is no reason the Spurs should lose this game.
Nick Whalen: Zion Williamson OVER 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-114) vs. MIN -- DK Sportsbook, noon CT
This line feels very low. Suspiciously low, even. So while that does give me some pause, I think we have to push forth and take the over on 35.5. For one, Williamson has hit the over on that number in six of his last seven games. In Sunday's game against the Lakers, he almost went over on points alone (35). For his size, strength and athleticism, he hasn't been as dominant on the glass as maybe he could be, but Williamson is still averaging nearly seven boards per game through his first 15 appearances. He's only averaging 2.1 assists, so anything you get in that category is somewhat of a bonus. It's really about the scoring and rebounding, and he goes up against a Timberwolves team that's been a bottom-five defense over the last 10 games. The Wolves also rank first in pace during that span -- one spot ahead of the Pelicans -- while ranking dead last in points in the paint allowed to opponents (58.4). Everything is lining up for Williamson to have a monster game. Perhaps the only real argument against it is that the matchup is a little too perfect.
Joe Bartel: Over DeMar DeRozan 11.5 rebounds and assists (-112) vs. Hornets -- FanDuel Sportsbook 10:42 a.m. CT
LaMarcus Aldridge, who is not expected to play Tuesday with a shoulder injury, has missed seven games this season. DeRozan has exceeded the rebound/assist total in five of them, including the last three games. The Hornets are also allowing the third-most rebounds and assists to the small forward position over the last five games. If this all sounds like a no-brainer....you'd be absolutely right. I feel less confident taking the over on DeRozan's scoring total (22.5 on FanDuel) given his dismal recent stretch (16.4 points, 46.2 percent from the field) in the last five games since returning from a back injury, but a same-game parlay that also features the Spurs winning, who are only favored by four, makes a lot of sense. I'm not gutsy enough to do it, but the expected pace totals of both the Hornets and Spurs would also suggest taking the under (213) would be a prudent move. At least for now, just give me DeRozan accomplishing his peripheral stats.
