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Best Bets
Desmond Bane over 3.5 threes (+140) vs. Lakers
DraftKings, 11:47 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Bane has made exactly three triples in three of the first four games of this series, with Game 2 being his rough 1-for-6 performance. Still, he's launching 8.8 per game and converting at a rate of just 28.6 percent. According to NBA.com, nearly half of those (4.0) are classified as wide open, and he's at 18.8 percent on those looks. He's too good of a three-point shooter to continue bricking these shots. I'm hoping for progression to the mean in a crucial Game 5 at home, and getting plus money is a nice bonus.
Jrue Holiday over 2.5 threes (+106) vs. Heat
FanDuel, 11:53 AM CT
Alex Barutha: For this one, I'm using similar logic to the Bane prop. Holiday is already making 2.5 threes per game in this series but is shooting just 27.8 percent from distance, which is bound to improve, and I like taking that chance with the Bucks at home in a must-win game. Per NBA.com, Holiday is shooting 31.8 percent on his 5.5 open threes per game and 16.7 percent on his 3.0 wide-open threes per game. He's not a sharpshooter, but he's better than this.
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Anthony Davis over 1.5 steals (+120) at Memphis
DraftKings, 11:59 AM CT
Alex Barutha: Davis is averaging 1.8 steals in this series, which doesn't seem like a fluke since he's also responsible for 3.8 deflections per game. I'll unquestionably take plus money on him going over 1.5 swipes given those conditions.
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De'Aaron Fox over 1.5 steals (+100) vs. Warriors
DraftKings, 11:59 AM CT
Alex Barutha: Fox is averaging 2.5 steals in this series, fueled by 3.8 deflections per game. Like the AD prop, getting plus money on 1.5 steals is practically an automatic bet for me when both his steals and deflections numbers suggest he will go over.
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Harrison Barnes over 0.5 steals (-130) vs. Warriors
DraftKings, 12:05 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Barnes is averaging 1.5 swipes in this series, but they're frontloaded, as he didn't record a steal in Game 3 or 4. But, like Fox and AD, Barnes' average of 3.5 deflections suggest his prop is a touch low. You're laying a little juice here, but it doesn't feel prohibitive.
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Brook Lopez over 2.5 blocks (+150) vs. Heat
DraftKings, 12:09 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Lopez is actually under this number for the series (2.0), but he's contesting 17.0 two-pointers per game and notably played just 30 minutes in the decisive Game 3 loss. I explained in a prior article how I generally apply a 20% block-to-contest ratio for two-pointers (at least for players who operate near the basket), which would land Lopez at 3.4 expected blocks per game. It's far from a perfect science, but we know he's one of the best shot-blockers in the NBA, so I like getting plus money.
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Memphis Grizzlies -4.0 vs. LA Lakers
DraftKings Sportsbook, 1pm CT
Nick Whalen: I'm also OK with taking the Grizzlies on the moneyline (-170 vs. -110) if you want a little more security, but this feels like a massive letdown spot for the Lakers after an emotional, high-minute night for the Lakers' veterans in Game 4. While LeBron James was the hero in the fourth quarter and overtime, his passivity and lack of burst were concerning. With only one day between games, the schedule – and shift back to Memphis – should play in the Grizzlies' favor.
LeBron James O5.5 assists at Grizzlies (-115)
DraftKings Sportsbook, 1pm CT
Nick Whalen: LeBron's assists numbers have been down since he returned from injury, but this is a very friendly number for a player who had 21 – twenty-one – potential assists in Game 4. I'm not saying I trust the likes of Troy Brown and Dennis Schroder to start knocking down open threes, but if the Lakers have even a slightly below-average shooting night, James should be able to clear six assists.
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