NBA DFS Picks: FanDuel Lineup Plays and Strategy for Saturday, December 31

NBA DFS Picks: FanDuel Lineup Plays and Strategy for Saturday, December 31

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

We're set for an eight-game slate to finish off the calendar year Saturday night, one that features Pelicans-Grizzlies and Heat-Jazz clashes as its marquee contests. The injury report is free of the most elite names, but several players who would usually be appealing mid-range/value plays are already confirmed out or trending toward an absence.

Slate Overview

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If point spreads are any indication, we're in for another night of mostly competitive action, as there are no spreads higher than 7.5 points as of early Saturday. We also have four games with projected totals above 230 points, including a Nets-Hornets tilt with a jaw-dropping figure of as high as 244 points.

Injury Situations to Monitor

For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report.

Luka Doncic, DAL (ankle): PROBABLE

Doncic is fully expected to take the floor and serve in his usual ultra-high-usage role.

Darius Garland, CLE (thumb): QUESTIONABLE

If Garland were to sit out, it would result in a significant usage bump for other members of the starting five and potentially lead to Donovan Mitchell shifting over to point guard.

Jalen Brunson, NYK (hip): QUESTIONABLE

In Brunson were to miss a second straight game, Immanuel Quickley would likely be in line for another start at point guard.

Rudy Gobert, MIN (illness): GTD

If Gobert were to sit out, Naz Reid could be set for another run with the starting five.

Other notable injuries:

Ben Simmons, BKN (illness): PROBABLE

Kelly Oubre, CHA (hand): OUT

Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN (calf): OUT

Brandon Ingram, NOP (toe): OUT

RJ Barrett, NYK (finger): OUT

Evan Mobley, CLE (ankle): QUESTIONABLE

Devin Vassell, SAN (knee): DOUBTFUL

Killian Hayes, DET (suspension): OUT

Elite Players

We have seven players with five-figure salaries on Saturday's slate – Luka Doncic ($12,400), Joel Embiid ($11,400), Kevin Durant ($10,600), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,400), James Harden ($10,300), Ja Morant ($10,100) and Zion Williamson ($10,000).

Doncic has been in especially elite form lately, scoring over 75 FD points in three of his last four games, including his historic 60-20-10 triple-double feat two games ago that netted 105 FD points.

Embiid has scored over 50 FD points in six of his last seven games, and he's eclipsed 64 FD points in four of the last nine matchups. However, he is on the second night of a back-to-back set, although his matchup against the Thunder is a premium one.

Durant scored 59.2 FD points against the Hawks in his most recent game Wednesday and should be well-rested after two days off.

Gilgeous-Alexander "dipped" to 43.1 FD points against the Hornets on Thursday night, but he'd put up 72 and 61.2 FD points in the prior two games and hasn't been under 40 since Dec. 10.

Harden's production has fluctuated fairly drastically recently, as he was under 30 FD points Friday against the Pelicans, had been over 60 in each of the three games prior and under 33 in the two games before that. However, he has a very favorable matchup against a Thunder team that's been very generous to shooting guards.

Morant has scored 44.2 to 53.4 FD points in four of the last five games and will have a one-day rest edge on the Pelicans on Saturday.

Williamson put up 36 points against the 76ers on Friday night in just 30 minutes, and although he's playing his third game in four nights Saturday, they come on the heels of a three-game absence before that stretch.

Expected Chalk

Other likely chalk plays include:

Julius Randle, NYK ($9,900)

Randle has scored 49.6 to 63.7 FD points in five straight games, including 54.6 or more in the last four.

DeMar DeRozan, CHI ($9,500)

DeRozan dipped to 37.7 FD points Friday night against the Pistons, but he'd scored 51.5 to 72.5 in the three games prior.

LaMelo Ball, CHA ($9,300)

Ball has scored over 50 FD points in two of his last four games, and he's scored at least 45 in six of his last seven.

Anthony Edwards, MIN ($9,200)

Edwards continues to shoulder a heavy workload in the ongoing absence of Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) and just scored 60.5 FD points in his most recent game against the Bucks on Thursday night.

CJ McCollum, NOP ($8,600)

McCollum went off for 42 points in 35 minutes against the Sixers on Friday night, netting 58.3 FD points, his third tally of more than 50 in the last six.

Immanuel Quickley, NYK ($6,700)

Quickley should be highly popular if Jalen Brunson is out, as the former racked up 56.9 FD points in 43 minutes in his teammate's stead against the Spurs on Thursday.

Key Values

Nic Claxton, BKN at CHA ($6,800)

Centers have been capitalizing on the Hornets' porous frontcourt defense all season, and Saturday should be no exception. Claxton is capable of capitalizing on the vulnerability, averaging 32.4 FD points per game and scoring over 45 FD points in three of his last six games alone. The young big is also averaging career highs across the board this season and shooting a stellar 74.3 percent, and the Hornets allow an NBA-high 36.0 efficiency rating to fives, along with an NBA-high 60.7 FD points per game to the position. Additionally, it's worth noting Charlotte is conceding an NBA-high 6.4 blocks per contest, while Claxton is averaging a career-best 2.4 rejections per game.

Naz Reid, MIN vs. DET ($5,900)

Reid could be in for another start Saturday if Rudy Gobert sits out again with his illness, but even if the latter plays, there's still an opportunity for the big man to deliver on his salary. Reid has put together several impressive performances off the bench this season, and he checks in averaging 31.9 FD points across his last eight games. Reid has shot a stellar 44.4 percent from three-point range on 4.5 three-point attempts per contest in that stretch, giving him an elite floor-stretching dimension in addition to his strong work on the boards (7.1 rebounds per game in the sample). The Pistons also make for great targets, allowing the fourth-highest offensive efficiency rating to centers (34.3), along with over 54 FD points per contest to the position in the last 15 games. Detroit is even allowing 38.7 percent three-point shooting in the last three contests, furthering Reid's case.

Tim Hardaway, DAL at SA ($5,800)

Hardaway's exploits are naturally overshadowed by those of Luka Doncic on most nights, but the veteran wing can certainly deliver a strong return on his current salary. Hardaway is averaging 27.2 FD points per game in the last seven games, scoring 29.7 to 34.7 FD points on three occasions during that span. Although he's struggled with efficiency this season, the Spurs could be the cure for what ails Hardaway, as they're allowing 47.4 percent shooting to small forwards and have given up NBA-high 39.2 percent three-point shooting overall.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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