NBA DFS Strategy Today - Slate Overview for Thursday, Jan. 12

This article is meant to give an introspective overview of today's NBA slate, with the goal of uncovering the best plays available to us based on what we know. As news comes, this article will be updated with further analysis, including how it will change the way we could approach this slate. The goal now is to set a foundation of who could or should be in our player pool. While later confirming the best route to take as the evening unfolds.

For the latest NBA Odds, including NBA Futures and NBA player props, visit RotoWire's NBA Betting page. We also have betting tools like Historical NBA Odds and ATS Standings. For up-to-date NBA player news and NBA Injury Report info, head to RotoWire's NBA Lineups page.

Not sure where to bet? Check out our information on NBA Betting Apps and NBA Betting Sites.

If you play fantasy basketball, check out RotoWire's NBA Fantasy Advice and useful tools like our Current Fantasy Basketball Rankings and NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer.

NBA DFS Strategy Today

6:15 PM EST: Jaylen Brown has been officially ruled out. Although this was touched on below, Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart and Derrick White all really pop with Al Horford and Brown off of the floor. They're each premier options in my opinion, and I'd play all of them ahead of the Heat trio of Victor Oladipo, Max Strus and Gabe Vincent. Of course, this is also a boost to Jayson Tatum. However, I'd still probably rank him behind Luka Doncic and Joel Embiid as far as our five-figure options go. 

Oklahoma City vs. Philadelphia

The Thunder and Sixers will kick off the slate at 7 EST and have the second-highest total on the board at 233, but they also have the biggest spread at 9.5. The Sixers are now healthy, as Joel Embiid returned against the Pistons on Tuesday, while Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (foot) and Aleksej Pokusevski (leg) remain out for the Thunder. 

This is in simple terms, a great spot for the Sixers and a bad spot for the Thunder. Philadelphia gets a significant pace boost here against the team ranked 13th in defensive efficiency, which is helping bolster them to a 121.5 total. A number 7.8 points above their season average. On the other hand, the Thunder will be slowed down here against the 22nd-fastest team in the league, which also ranks third in defensive efficiency. This is helping lead Oklahoma City to just a 111.5 total, a number 4.8 points below their season average. 

Considering the Thunder's player prices are based on what they do on average, and as a whole, they're expected to do less than average, there isn't a whole to love on that side of the game. If there's one spot to exploit against the Sixers, it's typically at shooting guard. However, Josh Giddey and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are both priced at a place where they really need to come through with a big score, and I fail to believe the risk is worth the reward with either. 

The Sixers' side of things is of course, a little more interesting. However, with so much of the team's production and usage tied to Tyrese Maxey, James Harden and Joel Embiid, there really isn't much interest outside of those three. To go beyond that, this is a phenomenal spot for each of Harden and Embiid, but I'm not sold on either as the premier spend-up options on the slate. However, this could make them strong contrarian options, as each has as high of a ceiling as anyone on the slate and arguably have the premier spot on it. 

Players to consider - James Harden and Joel Embiid. 

Milwaukee vs. Miami

The Bucks are fresh off a victory over the Hawks last night and will remain without Khris Middleton (knee), but they'll also be without Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee), Grayson Allen (ankle) and Joe Ingles (injury management). 

The Heat will still be without Tyler Herro (Achilles), Kyle Lowry (personal), and Caleb Martin (quadriceps) again, but Bam Adebayo (wrist) is expected back. Bam's return will end the appeal of not only Orlando Robinson, but other pieces of the Heat's rotation too. Guys like Max Strus, Gabe Vincent and Victor Oladipo aren't unreasonable options, but they certainly don't have the same appeal as they did last game. Depending on how many lineups you're building and what other news comes our way, they all may be worth some level of exposure though. 

Players to consider - Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Victor Oladipo

Giannis and Middleton have missed enough time over the last two seasons to pretty much know what to expect here. The trio of Jrue Holiday, Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez all see significant boosts in production and should be in strong consideration, while also being chalkier options. From there, Pat Connaughton has the most appeal, and after a very slow start to the season as he worked his way back from injury, has started to produce more consistently. Most recently surpassing 29 fantasy points on both Draftkings and Fanduel against the Knicks on Jan. 9. Guys like Jevon Carter and Marjon Beauchamp have greater than zero appeal, but I don't believe we need to take those risks here. 

Players to consider - Jrue Holiday, Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez, Pat Connaughton. 

Boston vs. Brooklyn

The Celtics and Nets are both ranked in the top 10 in defensive efficiency and are middle of the pack in pace. Boston's implied total of 115.5 points is actually 3.1 points below their season average, while Brooklyn's 112.5 total is 2.1 points below their average. However, despite both teams being projected to score below their typical output, injuries have opened up opportunities for both.

The Nets will be playing without Kevin Durant for the first time since suffering an MCL sprain, and the Celtics will be without Al Horford (rest), while Jaylen Brown (adductor) is questionable. They do however get back Marcus Smart and Robert Williams. 

As you might imagine, several Nets players receive a fantasy boost with Kevin Durant's 32% USG rate off of the floor. Most notably, Seth Curry, Nic Claxton and of course, Kyrie Irving. Although there are no specific statistics to point to, it makes logical sense for Ben Simmons and T.J. Warren to see boosts here as well. If nothing else, consistent and more dependable minutes should be available to both, even if their point-per-minute production does not increase. Warren and Simmons are averaging 31.28 and 34.46 fantasy points per 36 minutes with Durant off and Kyrie on, which are at worst solid returns depending on the site you're playing on. 

Players to consider - Kyrie Irving, Seth Curry, Nic Claxton, T.J. Warren and Ben Simmons. 

The Celtics have viable options under any circumstance here, but if Brown were to sit as well, those options would look a lot nicer. Marcus Smart, Derrick White and Malcolm Brogdon see significant boosts with Jaylen Brown and Al Horford on the bench, and at that point, they would far surpass the previously mentioned guard options in Miami on my level of interest.

Players to consider - This is ultimately determined by the Jaylen Browns news. However, it's safe to say that Robert Williams in the absence of Al Horford would be a strong option. Even if they don't take the leash off of his minutes limit, he's still a strong per-minute producer. Grant could be a decent value on Draftkings either way too, but his price has risen a bit too much on Fanduel. 

Charlotte vs Toronto 

We get a rematch here from Tuesday night, which saw a final score of 132-120 and the Raptors getting a win. Although it wouldn't be surprising to see another high-scoring affair, typically these rematches do not match the level of production from the first meeting. With that said, even if the Raptors don't score 132 points again, they're still in a great position to be one of, if not the highest-scoring team on the slate. 

Charlotte will remain without Kelly Oubre (hand) and likely Gordon Hayward (hamstring) once again. Frankly, there's nothing really here that jumps out from the Hornets. Especially, if we can expect this game to not be as high scoring as their previous meeting. Terry Rozier did just roast the Raptors in their meeting Tuesday, but expecting him to repeat 14-of-19 shooting is a tall task. 

Players to consider - None.

As alluded to above, Toronto gets the juiciest boost of the entire slate. With the pace bump, they're projected for giving them a 120-point implied total, which is 8.3 points above their season average. The Hornets are attackable from pretty much everywhere and no one is really overpriced for their potential, and these are the type of spots where they can hit that potential. Centers against Charlotte has been about as reliable of a spot to target all season as you'll find, which will leave Pascal Siakam as a strong spend-up option. However, Siakam is not your prototypical center, nor does he spend all of his minutes there, so that is something to keep in mind. Scottie Barnes is another quality option here, as he has center qualities, and often finds himself in the paint. A  20 and 10 stat line with multiple blocks and steals wouldn't come as a surprise. Fred VanVleet is another quality option with clear 50 points or more upside. If you're drawn to anyone else on the Raptors, I certainly wouldn't suggest not going there, but those three are the ones that stand out to me the most. Each of them's inability to produce a have to have it score Tuesday has no relevance to me in what will happen with them tonight. 

Players to consider - Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes and Fred VanVleet. 

Dallas vs. Los Angeles Lakers

The Mavericks come in with a 119 implied total, which is 6.9 points above their season average. Dwight Powell (hip) is questionable, which could help push Christian Wood toward the higher end of his minutes range. Considering the dominance of Luka, and his ability to post a 40% or more USG rate, there's usually not much reason to consider any other pieces from Dallas. However, due to their significant total, this could be a spot worth considering Wood and also Tim Hardaway, who's been playing nearly 40 minutes every game for almost a month now. 

Players to consider - Luka Doncic, Christian Wood and Tim Hardaway

The Lakers have a 116 implied total, which is less than a point below their season average. The Mavericks may be one of the least exciting teams to roster players against, as they sport the slowest pace in the league. However, there is evidence of them slipping defensively, as they've fallen to 20th in efficiency. Patrick Beverley (illness) will be sitting this one out, while Austin Reaves (hamstring) and Lonnie Walker (knee) will also remain out. 

It's highly unlikely I'll find myself on anyone from the Lakers. Please feel free to ride the resurgence of Russell Westbrook. LeBron James always has a high ceiling, no matter the context of the opponent. Thomas Bryant continues to post strong scores. I just feel like there are better options at each position and price ranges that have already been presented among the other games. 

Players to consider - LeBron James 

Cleveland vs. Portland 

The Cavs continue their west coast swing and have already played the Suns and Jazz. They'll now get the Blazers, who may be with Damian Lillard (ankle). The Cavs may get back Ricky Rubio (knee), but his potential return would be extremely limited and likely to have little impact on how we approach the Cavs tonight. Cleveland has about as neutral of a matchup as you'll find here. So much so that their 111.5 implied total matches their season average. 

The Blazers have been best attacked at guard and center, which makes for a couple of interesting options. With Donovan Mitchell fresh off of his potentially emotional return to Utah, which saw him touch 70 fantasy points, it could be Darius Garland's turn to produce. He's reasonably priced and will likely receive little to no attention across the industry, despite it being a quality spot. Although I would not play him heavily, I like him as a contrarian option in lineups that feature players much more heavily rostered. Jarrett Allen is also of some interest here. He should suit up after leaving their game against Utah on Tuesday with an illness. His price has dropped considerably despite his ability to cross 40 fantasy points with relative consistency. 

Players to consider - Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen. 

The way to approach the Blazers here varies greatly depending on the status of Lillard. Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant would certainly become strong options if he's unable to play, despite it being a difficult spot for fantasy production in general. For reference, the Cavs play at the second-slowest pace in the league and are also second in defensive efficiency. Jusuf Nurkic would also be worth consideration. Although his production doesn't move much with Dame off the floor, the guy has just plain gone to a different level over his last few games. 

If Lillard does play, the appeal of everyone diminishes, although Dame himself would become a worthwhile spend-up contrarian option. I'd also be willing to ride this Nurkic wave whether Lillard plays or not. 

Players to consider - Damian Lillard (if he plays), Jusuf Nurkic, Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant (if Lillard is out).