NBA Draft Kit: Per-Possession Watch List

NBA Draft Kit: Per-Possession Watch List

This article is part of our NBA Draft Kit series.

The first movie I ever saw in a theater was Aladdin, and I loved it.

After seeing the movie, I went to McDonalds an embarrassing number of times to try and collect all of the Happy Meal toys.

Looking back, it's easy to see why I loved Aladdin so much. He's an underdog. He had a great deal of potential, but it was untapped. He was a diamond in the rough.

As an adult, my taste in movies, and happy meals for that matter, has completely changed. However, I still enjoy rooting for diamonds in the rough. In fact, that's one of my favorite parts about playing fantasy sports: finding guys who are going to be great and adding them to my team before anyone else does.

Below are my diamonds in the rough for the upcoming season. These are players who rank inside the top 100 if we evaluated players on a per-possession basis but who are currently ranked outside of ESPN and Yahoo's top 150, primarily because they aren't expected to play heavy minutes next season.

Group 1: Guys to Put on your Watch List

Player

Team

POS

ESPN Rank

Yahoo Rank

Per Possessions Rank

Mason Plumlee

Brooklyn Nets

C

892

187

56


Why He'd Be Valuable: Plumlee is a good bet to lead the league in field goal percentage, and he also gets a healthy number of steals and blocks per possession.

Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:Medium. Plumlee is expected to come off the bench, but

The first movie I ever saw in a theater was Aladdin, and I loved it.

After seeing the movie, I went to McDonalds an embarrassing number of times to try and collect all of the Happy Meal toys.

Looking back, it's easy to see why I loved Aladdin so much. He's an underdog. He had a great deal of potential, but it was untapped. He was a diamond in the rough.

As an adult, my taste in movies, and happy meals for that matter, has completely changed. However, I still enjoy rooting for diamonds in the rough. In fact, that's one of my favorite parts about playing fantasy sports: finding guys who are going to be great and adding them to my team before anyone else does.

Below are my diamonds in the rough for the upcoming season. These are players who rank inside the top 100 if we evaluated players on a per-possession basis but who are currently ranked outside of ESPN and Yahoo's top 150, primarily because they aren't expected to play heavy minutes next season.

Group 1: Guys to Put on your Watch List

Player

Team

POS

ESPN Rank

Yahoo Rank

Per Possessions Rank

Mason Plumlee

Brooklyn Nets

C

892

187

56


Why He'd Be Valuable: Plumlee is a good bet to lead the league in field goal percentage, and he also gets a healthy number of steals and blocks per possession.

Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:Medium. Plumlee is expected to come off the bench, but the two big guys in front of him, Brook Lopez and Kevin Garnett, aren't exactly pillars of health.

Player

Team

POS

ESPN Rank

Yahoo Rank

Per Possessions Rank

Kelly Olynyk

Boston Celtics

F

215

178

61


Why He'd Be Valuable: On a per-possession basis, Olynyk is a strong contributor across the board, particularly in free throw percentage, three-pointers, and rebounds, a rare combination.

Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:High. Boston's crowded frontcourt rotation is still uncertain, so if Olynyk plays well early, he should see significant minutes.

Player

Team

POS

ESPN Rank

Yahoo Rank

Per Possessions Rank

Kevin Garnett

Brooklyn Nets

F

186

224

63


Why He'd Be Valuable: Amazingly, Garnett was a top-five fantasy player for 10 straight seasons. Even though those days are behind him, he was still a strong contributor in rebounds, steals, and blocks on a per-possession basis last season.

Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:High. Coach Lionel Hollins has said several times that he expects KG to get more minutes than he did last season. Barring an injury, it seems likely that he will get enough minutes to be fantasy relevant again this season.

Player

Team

POS

ESPN Rank

Yahoo Rank

Per Possessions Rank

Amar'e Stoudemire

New York Knicks

F

125

171

74


Why He'd Be Valuable: Though his knees are not what they use to be, Amar'e can still score at a high level and was tremendously efficient last season. He is also valuable in rebounds and blocks on a per-possession basis.

Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:High. With news that Carmelo will be playing primarily at the small forward this year, the door is open for Stoudemire to get big minutes if he can stay healthy.

Player

Team

POS

ESPN Rank

Yahoo Rank

Per Possessions Rank

James Johnson

Toronto Raptors

F

171

244

50


Why He'd Be Valuable: Savvy fantasy owners know Johnson was a great source of blocks and steals last season. Look for more of the same if he gets minutes with his new team.

Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:Medium. The Raptors have serious competition for minutes on the wing, but he's the type of player that coaches love, so a big role isn't inconceivable.

Player

Team

POS

ESPN Rank

Yahoo Rank

Per Possessions Rank

Pablo Prigioni

New York Knicks

G

843

229

87


Why He'd Be Valuable: Per possession, Prigioni provides near elite production in the assists and steals categories, while also contributing in three-pointers.

Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:Low. If Coach Fisher deems Prigioni a key contributor to the triangle offense, he could get minutes, but it seems more likely Prigioni will be stuck behind Calderon, and in a battle with Larkin, for backup point guard minutes.

Player

Team

POS

ESPN Rank

Yahoo Rank

Per Possessions Rank

Tiago Splitter

San Antonio Spurs

F

182

162

91


Why He'd Be Valuable: Unlike most of the players on this list, Splitter doesn't excel at any one fantasy category. He is pretty solid across the board, though, including percentages.

Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:Low. Despite starting several games at center for the Spurs, Splitter has never averaged more than 25 mpg. He's a good bet to exceed 24 mpg this season but probably not to exceed 27 mpg.

Player

Team

POS

ESPN Rank

Yahoo Rank

Per Possessions Rank

Brandan Wright

Dallas Mavericks

F

172

211

13


Why He'd Be Valuable: It might be hard to believe, but last season, Wright finished 13th in the NBA in PER. He's basically a savant on the offensive end, who also blocks shots and rebounds at a high rate.

Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:Low. Coach Rick Carlisle has always limited Wright's minutes despite his effectiveness on the offensive end. With Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler entrenched as the starters, expect more of the same.

Player

Team

POS

ESPN Rank

Yahoo Rank

Per Possessions Rank

Nate Robinson

Denver Nuggets

G

200

243

95


Why He'd Be Valuable: Robinson has played for several different teams in his career and has always been a solid contributor on a per-possession basis in three-pointers, assists, steals, and points.

Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:Low. It's tough to see where Robinson's minutes will come from on a team with Ty Lawson, Randy Foye, and Arron Afflalo, but Robinson has a knack for getting on the floor, so keep on an eye on him.

Player

Team

POS

ESPN Rank

Yahoo Rank

Per Possessions Rank

Chris Copeland

Indiana Pacers

F

841

348

48

C.J. Miles

Indiana Pacers

G

242

186

66


Why They'd Be Valuable: Both of these players are extremely valuable per possession in the same category: three-pointers.

Chance of One of Them Getting 27+ MPG:High. They aren't typical Vogel guys, but it seems likely that one of these two will play big minutes this season in an effort to boost Indiana's offense after the loss of Lance Stephenson and Paul George.

Group 2: The Blocks and Rebounds Club

Breaking news: its advantageous to be tall in basketball. As a result, several teams have players at the end of their bench who are both tall and good at blocking shots. Blocks are rare enough that if any of these guys get major minutes, they would have fantasy value in standard leagues:

Player

Team

POS

ESPN Rank

Yahoo Rank

Per Possessions Rank

Kyle O'Quinn

Orlando Magic

C

162

232

46

Alexis Ajinca

New Orleans Pelicans

C

616

281

65

Jeremy Evans

Utah Jazz

F

353

255

79

Chris Kaman

Portland Trail Blazers

C

203

272

83

Cole Aldrich

New York Knicks

C

713

335

88

Samuel Dalembert

New York Knicks

C

166

142

89

JaVale McGee

Denver Nuggets

C

175

141

98


O'Quinn and McGee seem to be the most likely of this group to crack their teams' rotation this year, although the Knicks' rotation is so uncertain at this point that it is worth keeping an eye on Dalembert and Aldrich as well.

Group 3: Deep Deep Sleepers

These are guys who technically made the cut, but who have barely played in the NBA, so I have no degree of confidence that they would perform this well in an expanded role. Basically, I've included them here so that if they do breakout I can still take credit, but if they don't, I can claim small sample size. Consider them very risky deep sleepers:

Player

Team

POS

ESPN Rank

Yahoo Rank

Per Possessions Rank

Robert Covington

Houston Rockets

F

902

444

35

Carrick Felix

Utah Jazz

G

910

450

57

Casper Ware

Philadelphia 76ers

G

N/A

419

69

Troy Daniels

Houston Rockets

G

948

429

70


Please leave any comments or questions below or reach out to me on twitter @MarcFRoberts.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Marc Roberts
Marc F Roberts writes about fantasy basketball for RotoWire. He has won no fantasy awards, but his mom thinks his writing is "fantastic". Hubie Brown is a national treasure.
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