This article is part of our NBA Draft Kit series.
The first movie I ever saw in a theater was Aladdin, and I loved it.
After seeing the movie, I went to McDonalds an embarrassing number of times to try and collect all of the Happy Meal toys.
Looking back, it's easy to see why I loved Aladdin so much. He's an underdog. He had a great deal of potential, but it was untapped. He was a diamond in the rough.
As an adult, my taste in movies, and happy meals for that matter, has completely changed. However, I still enjoy rooting for diamonds in the rough. In fact, that's one of my favorite parts about playing fantasy sports: finding guys who are going to be great and adding them to my team before anyone else does.
Below are my diamonds in the rough for the upcoming season. These are players who rank inside the top 100 if we evaluated players on a per-possession basis but who are currently ranked outside of ESPN and Yahoo's top 150, primarily because they aren't expected to play heavy minutes next season.
Group 1: Guys to Put on your Watch List
Player | Team | POS | ESPN Rank | Yahoo Rank | Per Possessions Rank |
Mason Plumlee | Brooklyn Nets | C | 892 | 187 | 56 |
Why He'd Be Valuable: Plumlee is a good bet to lead the league in field goal percentage, and he also gets a healthy number of steals and blocks per possession.
Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:Medium. Plumlee is expected to come off the bench, but
The first movie I ever saw in a theater was Aladdin, and I loved it.
After seeing the movie, I went to McDonalds an embarrassing number of times to try and collect all of the Happy Meal toys.
Looking back, it's easy to see why I loved Aladdin so much. He's an underdog. He had a great deal of potential, but it was untapped. He was a diamond in the rough.
As an adult, my taste in movies, and happy meals for that matter, has completely changed. However, I still enjoy rooting for diamonds in the rough. In fact, that's one of my favorite parts about playing fantasy sports: finding guys who are going to be great and adding them to my team before anyone else does.
Below are my diamonds in the rough for the upcoming season. These are players who rank inside the top 100 if we evaluated players on a per-possession basis but who are currently ranked outside of ESPN and Yahoo's top 150, primarily because they aren't expected to play heavy minutes next season.
Group 1: Guys to Put on your Watch List
Player | Team | POS | ESPN Rank | Yahoo Rank | Per Possessions Rank |
Mason Plumlee | Brooklyn Nets | C | 892 | 187 | 56 |
Why He'd Be Valuable: Plumlee is a good bet to lead the league in field goal percentage, and he also gets a healthy number of steals and blocks per possession.
Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:Medium. Plumlee is expected to come off the bench, but the two big guys in front of him, Brook Lopez and Kevin Garnett, aren't exactly pillars of health.
Player | Team | POS | ESPN Rank | Yahoo Rank | Per Possessions Rank |
Kelly Olynyk | Boston Celtics | F | 215 | 178 | 61 |
Why He'd Be Valuable: On a per-possession basis, Olynyk is a strong contributor across the board, particularly in free throw percentage, three-pointers, and rebounds, a rare combination.
Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:High. Boston's crowded frontcourt rotation is still uncertain, so if Olynyk plays well early, he should see significant minutes.
Player | Team | POS | ESPN Rank | Yahoo Rank | Per Possessions Rank |
Kevin Garnett | Brooklyn Nets | F | 186 | 224 | 63 |
Why He'd Be Valuable: Amazingly, Garnett was a top-five fantasy player for 10 straight seasons. Even though those days are behind him, he was still a strong contributor in rebounds, steals, and blocks on a per-possession basis last season.
Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:High. Coach Lionel Hollins has said several times that he expects KG to get more minutes than he did last season. Barring an injury, it seems likely that he will get enough minutes to be fantasy relevant again this season.
Player | Team | POS | ESPN Rank | Yahoo Rank | Per Possessions Rank |
Amar'e Stoudemire | New York Knicks | F | 125 | 171 | 74 |
Why He'd Be Valuable: Though his knees are not what they use to be, Amar'e can still score at a high level and was tremendously efficient last season. He is also valuable in rebounds and blocks on a per-possession basis.
Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:High. With news that Carmelo will be playing primarily at the small forward this year, the door is open for Stoudemire to get big minutes if he can stay healthy.
Player | Team | POS | ESPN Rank | Yahoo Rank | Per Possessions Rank |
James Johnson | Toronto Raptors | F | 171 | 244 | 50 |
Why He'd Be Valuable: Savvy fantasy owners know Johnson was a great source of blocks and steals last season. Look for more of the same if he gets minutes with his new team.
Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:Medium. The Raptors have serious competition for minutes on the wing, but he's the type of player that coaches love, so a big role isn't inconceivable.
Player | Team | POS | ESPN Rank | Yahoo Rank | Per Possessions Rank |
Pablo Prigioni | New York Knicks | G | 843 | 229 | 87 |
Why He'd Be Valuable: Per possession, Prigioni provides near elite production in the assists and steals categories, while also contributing in three-pointers.
Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:Low. If Coach Fisher deems Prigioni a key contributor to the triangle offense, he could get minutes, but it seems more likely Prigioni will be stuck behind Calderon, and in a battle with Larkin, for backup point guard minutes.
Player | Team | POS | ESPN Rank | Yahoo Rank | Per Possessions Rank |
Tiago Splitter | San Antonio Spurs | F | 182 | 162 | 91 |
Why He'd Be Valuable: Unlike most of the players on this list, Splitter doesn't excel at any one fantasy category. He is pretty solid across the board, though, including percentages.
Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:Low. Despite starting several games at center for the Spurs, Splitter has never averaged more than 25 mpg. He's a good bet to exceed 24 mpg this season but probably not to exceed 27 mpg.
Player | Team | POS | ESPN Rank | Yahoo Rank | Per Possessions Rank |
Brandan Wright | Dallas Mavericks | F | 172 | 211 | 13 |
Why He'd Be Valuable: It might be hard to believe, but last season, Wright finished 13th in the NBA in PER. He's basically a savant on the offensive end, who also blocks shots and rebounds at a high rate.
Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:Low. Coach Rick Carlisle has always limited Wright's minutes despite his effectiveness on the offensive end. With Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler entrenched as the starters, expect more of the same.
Player | Team | POS | ESPN Rank | Yahoo Rank | Per Possessions Rank |
Nate Robinson | Denver Nuggets | G | 200 | 243 | 95 |
Why He'd Be Valuable: Robinson has played for several different teams in his career and has always been a solid contributor on a per-possession basis in three-pointers, assists, steals, and points.
Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:Low. It's tough to see where Robinson's minutes will come from on a team with Ty Lawson, Randy Foye, and Arron Afflalo, but Robinson has a knack for getting on the floor, so keep on an eye on him.
Player | Team | POS | ESPN Rank | Yahoo Rank | Per Possessions Rank |
Chris Copeland | Indiana Pacers | F | 841 | 348 | 48 |
C.J. Miles | Indiana Pacers | G | 242 | 186 | 66 |
Why They'd Be Valuable: Both of these players are extremely valuable per possession in the same category: three-pointers.
Chance of One of Them Getting 27+ MPG:High. They aren't typical Vogel guys, but it seems likely that one of these two will play big minutes this season in an effort to boost Indiana's offense after the loss of Lance Stephenson and Paul George.
Group 2: The Blocks and Rebounds Club
Breaking news: its advantageous to be tall in basketball. As a result, several teams have players at the end of their bench who are both tall and good at blocking shots. Blocks are rare enough that if any of these guys get major minutes, they would have fantasy value in standard leagues:
Player | Team | POS | ESPN Rank | Yahoo Rank | Per Possessions Rank |
Kyle O'Quinn | Orlando Magic | C | 162 | 232 | 46 |
Alexis Ajinca | New Orleans Pelicans | C | 616 | 281 | 65 |
Jeremy Evans | Utah Jazz | F | 353 | 255 | 79 |
Chris Kaman | Portland Trail Blazers | C | 203 | 272 | 83 |
Cole Aldrich | New York Knicks | C | 713 | 335 | 88 |
Samuel Dalembert | New York Knicks | C | 166 | 142 | 89 |
JaVale McGee | Denver Nuggets | C | 175 | 141 | 98 |
O'Quinn and McGee seem to be the most likely of this group to crack their teams' rotation this year, although the Knicks' rotation is so uncertain at this point that it is worth keeping an eye on Dalembert and Aldrich as well.
Group 3: Deep Deep Sleepers
These are guys who technically made the cut, but who have barely played in the NBA, so I have no degree of confidence that they would perform this well in an expanded role. Basically, I've included them here so that if they do breakout I can still take credit, but if they don't, I can claim small sample size. Consider them very risky deep sleepers:
Player | Team | POS | ESPN Rank | Yahoo Rank | Per Possessions Rank |
Robert Covington | Houston Rockets | F | 902 | 444 | 35 |
Carrick Felix | Utah Jazz | G | 910 | 450 | 57 |
Casper Ware | Philadelphia 76ers | G | N/A | 419 | 69 |
Troy Daniels | Houston Rockets | G | 948 | 429 | 70 |
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