This article is part of our NBA Observations series.
What a past 48 hours in the NBA! We had a pair of historic scoring performances, a fairly big trade and a coach fired. And we have the trade deadline coming up in just over two weeks. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Here are the latest notable happenings in The Association.
Rozier traded to Heat
On Tuesday, Terry Rozier was traded from the Hornets to the Heat for Kyle Lowry and a 2027 first-round pick. The struggling 10-31 Hornets had little need for the 29-year-old guard, who is signed through the 2025-26 season at $26.6 million that year. Lowry isn't expected to suit up for Charlotte before the trade deadline. General manager Mitch Kupchak will explore re-routing him but will presumably just waive the veteran if nothing materializes. Both the Hornets and Heat play Wednesday (though Rozier is questionable), so we could get a better idea of what their rotations will look like going forward. However, it's important to note that Kupchak also said the front office isn't done making moves, so other Hornets vets are on the block.
For the Heat, Lowry's 28.0 minutes per game will be completely filled by Rozier, who is playing 35.5 minutes this season. That also means 5-10 minutes need to be taken from elsewhere in the rotation, which could spell a decrease for Josh Richardson, Duncan Robinson and/or Nikola Jovic. Rozier is currently averaging career highs in points (23.2) and assists (6.6) – numbers that figure to decrease upon
What a past 48 hours in the NBA! We had a pair of historic scoring performances, a fairly big trade and a coach fired. And we have the trade deadline coming up in just over two weeks. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Here are the latest notable happenings in The Association.
Rozier traded to Heat
On Tuesday, Terry Rozier was traded from the Hornets to the Heat for Kyle Lowry and a 2027 first-round pick. The struggling 10-31 Hornets had little need for the 29-year-old guard, who is signed through the 2025-26 season at $26.6 million that year. Lowry isn't expected to suit up for Charlotte before the trade deadline. General manager Mitch Kupchak will explore re-routing him but will presumably just waive the veteran if nothing materializes. Both the Hornets and Heat play Wednesday (though Rozier is questionable), so we could get a better idea of what their rotations will look like going forward. However, it's important to note that Kupchak also said the front office isn't done making moves, so other Hornets vets are on the block.
For the Heat, Lowry's 28.0 minutes per game will be completely filled by Rozier, who is playing 35.5 minutes this season. That also means 5-10 minutes need to be taken from elsewhere in the rotation, which could spell a decrease for Josh Richardson, Duncan Robinson and/or Nikola Jovic. Rozier is currently averaging career highs in points (23.2) and assists (6.6) – numbers that figure to decrease upon his arrival in Miami. He'll be fighting for touches with Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler. Rozier will probably also be asked to contribute more on defense – an area of his game he's shelved while taking on lead playmaker usage for the horrible Hornets over the past two seasons. My general prediction for Rozier is something like 15-20 points per game, 3-5 assists, about three boards and possibly upwards of 1.5 steals. His shooting efficiency (46/36/85) could also see a boost with easier looks, with Rozier notably shooting 38.2 percent from distance over a five-year span from 2017-18 through 2021-22. I could also see marginally decreased usage for Miami's existing Big 3, but a drastic change would surprise me.
As for Charlotte, they're down their second-best playmaker. On/off court data suggests the biggest beneficiaries will be LaMelo Ball (+9.9% with Rozier off) and Cody Martin (+6.7%). Martin might be worth taking a flier on in deep fantasy leagues, but don't suddenly expect top-100, or even top-150 production. Rookie Nick Smith has also been in the fold lately but hasn't shown a lot besides a three-point stroke. But as noted, the Hornets are looking for other moves. This team might be almost devoid of veterans after the Feb. 8 trade deadline. I don't mind exploratory pickups on some of the young guys if your league goes deep and you aren't doing anything with a bench spot.
Bucks fire Griffin, hire Rivers
If you live in Wisconsin, as I do, and are your social circle's resident Bucks diehard, you probably got some confused text messages when Milwaukee head coach Adrian Griffin was fired Tuesday. "But they're second in the East? They're 30-13?" Those things are technically true, but they also sort of aren't.
It all starts with assistant coach Terry Stotts up and quitting his job before the season even started due to a confrontation with Griffin at practice where he felt disrespected. Griffin then began the year with a new defensive scheme – one with less drop coverage and more Brook Lopez out on the perimeter. About five games in, the players went to Griffin and said "We aren't doing that anymore." Later, we had a report about Bobby Portis ripping Griffin and challenging teammates after the Bucks' In-Season Tournament loss to the Pacers. Things continued to crumble in smaller ways after that, like some clips that have gone viral on Twitter about Giannis Antetokounmpo negotiating with Griffin to prevent being subbed out and the superstar drawing up a play by himself on the bench.
So, the record. Yes, 30-13 and second in the East. But it's a ton of disappointing and confusing losses, evidenced by the Bucks being a horrendous 16-26-1 against the spread, only better than Phoenix (15-26-2) and Atlanta (11-32). The Bucks also have 4.3 more wins than expected based on non-garbage time net rating (+3.4) – the biggest win differential in the whole league. They actually have a worse non-garbage net rating than Cleveland (+4.4) – missing two starters for over a month – and New York (+5.4), who have two fringe All-Stars leading the team.
How much will Doc Rivers coaching the team change things? Rivers at least has the pedigree from having coached contenders. Just getting someone in the building who the players respect is a massive step forward (assuming they respect Rivers, of course). What does it mean for your fantasy team? It's hard to tell, but I wouldn't be surprised if Damian Lillard starts shooting the ball better, hopefully due to Rivers drawing up some more reliable offense. I could also see Bobby Portis getting in the mix a bit more. But Milwaukee also figures to be active at the trade deadline(with limited assets), so this team's rotation could look a bit different in a couple weeks.
Siakam first impressions; Haliburton injury update
Since being traded to the Pacers, Pascal Siakam has played three games. He's averaging 17.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.7 assists in 32.3 minutes. Those numbers are down from his averages in Toronto (22/6/5), but not by much. He's also still learning Indiana's system, and he's played just one game with Tyrese Haliburton, who is bothered by a hamstring injury (more on that in a second).
I'm still very bullish on Siakam's fit. Indiana plays at the league's second-fastest pace, and Siakam is excellent in transition. Having a floor spacing five in Myles Turner around Siakam will help alleviate the spacing issues that were present in Toronto. Once Haliburton returns, I think Siakam's stats will actually increase.
Haliburton seemingly came back too soon from a hamstring injury after a five-game absence, sort of? He saw 35 minutes Friday against the Trail Blazers and posted a fantastic 21 points and 17 assists. Shortly after, he was ruled out for the following three games. He'll be re-evaluated this Saturday. Why even take the risk of playing him against the terrible Blazers, who the Pacers somehow lost to anyway? It doesn't make sense. Fantasy managers should, I suppose, hope Haliburton is back next week. But with how problematic hamstring injuries can be, I won't be shocked if he's out every game.
Embiid goes for 70, KAT drops in 62
These historic performances have almost no real fantasy implications going forward, but not including them as a recent news item would have felt wrong. Joel Embiid went for 70 points, 18 rebounds, five assists, one steal and one block with only one turnover against the Spurs on Monday. He's, by far, the No. 1 fantasy player in eight-category formats in per-game stats. Karl-Anthony Towns popped for 62 points, eight rebounds and two assists but seven turnovers in a 128-125 loss to the Hornets. The Wolves have been so great this season; they were due for a vintage Wolves fiasco. Towns is the 28th-ranked player per-game in eight-category fantasy formats, so managers who drafted him are generally getting their money's worth.
