This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
With Portland winning the play-in game against Memphis on Saturday, all the Round 1 matchups are officially set. With no travel and no home-court advantage, game-by-game betting will feel a little different than usual. But when discussing series winners, I'm not looking at things much differently since I don't think there will be many Game 7s where the higher seed would normally get to play on their turf.
Below, I've outlined what I believe to be important dynamics for each series. And while I often include opinions on what I think is a good value bet, the point of this article is not to provide picks -- the point is to, hopefully, make you consider something you may not have thought of previously.
Odds via FanDuel
Jazz (+210) vs. 
Nuggets (-265)
In what's predicted to be a close Round 1 series, the Jazz will attempt to pull off an upset without Bojan Bogdanovic, who is out for the season with a wrist injury. However, early results for Utah have been suspect, as the Jazz have posted a -4.0 point differential in the bubble in addition to being -3.7 with Bogdanovic off the court overall. He has the second-highest point differential on the team (+9.8) behind only Rudy Gobert (+12.6). Bogdanovic was a truly crucial piece of Utah's gameplan.
The Nuggets haven't looked great in the bubble, either, but only recently got Jamal Murray back and have been without Will Barton and Gary Harris. That pair continuing to sit out could certainly hurt Denver, as the team is -3.2 with both players off the court. However, that problem may be alleviated by the emergence of Michael Porter Jr., who has bubble averages of 22.0 points on 14.0 shots, 8.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.0 combined steals-plus-blocks in 33.3 minutes. Denver should also be able to reduce Gobert's defensive impact in the paint with Nikola Jokic's ability to stretch the floor and play from the high post.
Both full-season metrics and momentum favor the Nuggets, so that's who I'd go with to win the series. I think -265 is fair value. To bet on the Jazz, I'd want a lot longer odds than +210 since I believe they're a legitimate underdog. Mike Conley also left the bubble Sunday due to the birth of his son, and it's not clear when he'll return.
Rockets (-162) vs. 
Thunder (+132)
With Russell Westbrook's availability for the matchup unclear -- he's expected to miss "the start" of the series at a minimum with a quad injury -- things have gotten interesting. More usage will naturally funnel to James Harden, which isn't necessarily a bad thing since he's one of the best offensive players ever. But Westbrook's absence puts a lot of pressure Eric Gordon, Ben McLemore and Austin Rivers to be able to consistently score against the Thunder.
When Westbrook is on the court, Houston gets 2.9 percent more transition opportunities (97th percentile) and takes 4.9 percent more shots at the rim (95th percentile). With Westbrook off the court, the Rockets become more reliant on generating threes in the halfcourt. That will be a problem against the Thunder, who have the sixth-best halfcourt defense in the league and allow opponents to hit just 34.8 percent of their threes -- the fourth-stingiest mark.
The Thunder themselves only have the 13th-ranked offense, but the Rockets' 14th-ranked defense shouldn't cause too many problems. OKC thrives in the mid-range, taking the third-most shots from that distance with the third-best accuracy. Houston's focus is to prevent shots at the rim and threes, so the clash of styles will be interesting.
When I began writing this article Friday, the Rockets were -235, which I thought wasn't great value. Now, at -162, I believe Houston is getting disrespected. They still have Harden and a group of great role players who work well together as a unit. The Harden/PJ Tucker/Robert Covington trio sans Westbrook still has a fantastic +11.3 point differential. As much as I love OKC, I couldn't see myself betting on them at just +132.
76ers (+350) vs. 
Celtics (-480)
This series will be played without Ben Simmons (kneecap), who is out indefinitely. That robs the 76ers of their most versatile defender and best playmaker, especially in transition. Philadelphia gets 4.9 percent more transition opportunities with Simmons on the court -- a number that ranks in the 100th percentile (consider taking the 218.0 Game 1 under, or the 76ers under 106.5).
Boston will gladly face the halfcourt version of the 76ers. Despite lacking in size, the Celtics have the eighth-best rim defense in the NBA and the fourth-best halfcourt defense overall. The 76ers' halfcourt offense without Simmons still ranks in the 79th percentile, but the team's accuracy at the rim drops to the 31st percentile and they become wildly reliant on mid-range looks, taking 35.7 percent of their shots from there (90th percentile).
On the other side of the matchup, Boston's fourth-ranked offense will now be facing a 76ers defense that is simply average (52nd percentile) with Simmons off the court. Coach Brad Stevens' attack leans on jumpshooting, especially the non-corner three. They've succeeded all season without attacking the paint. The presence of Joel Embiid inside will not affect them in the same way it would affect many other teams, especially since Boston also has the personnel to go five-out with Daniel Theis.
The 76ers have the raw talent to pull an upset, but I think it's less likely than the odds suggest. I'd be comfortable taking Celtics -480. If you're especially convinced of a quick victory, a Celtics sweep pays out 5-to-1, while Celtics 4-1 is +300 and Celtics 4-2 is +330.
Clippers (-500) vs. 
Mavericks (+360)
The Mavericks are getting a lot of respect against the Clippers, who have the second-shortest odds to win the NBA title (+300). But does it make sense that the Mavericks have almost the same chance of upsetting the Clippers in Round 1 as the Clippers do to win the title?
Luka Doncic is one of the best players in the NBA, and his pairing with Kristaps Porzingis has led to the NBA's best offense ever. But both players will be going through their first playoff series, and Doncic figures to have an especially difficult time against the tag team of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Can Doncic really get the best of that matchup four times? Stopping Leonard and George on offense will prove tough as well considering Dallas has just the 18th-ranked defense and forces the fewest turnovers.
Offensively, the Clippers are right behind the Mavericks with the second-best offense in the league, plus the fifth-ranked defense. And LA has accomplished that with Leonard and George missing a combined 37 games. When George and Leonard are both on the court, the team is dominant, posting a +12.1 point differential. Ultimately, I believe -500 is good value for the Clippers. The most likely outcome is defined as Clippers 4-1, which is +270.
Pacers (+250) vs. 
Heat (-325)
As out-of-this-world as T.J. Warren has looked in seeding games, the Pacers just aren't that good without Domantas Sabonis (foot), who is out indefinitely. In Indiana's first seven bubble games, their point differential was -0.2, and without Sabonis on the court over the course of the whole season, they're -1.6 with an offensive ranking in the 24th percentile. The Pacers are especially bad on the glass without Sabonis, ranking in the second percentile for offensive rebounding and the ninth percentile for defensive rebounding. They also often settle for mid-range jumpers.
Meanwhile, the Heat are expected to be fully healthy, and their point differential of +3.4 includes the sixth-best offense and ninth-best defense. They're also the second-best defensive rebounding team. While Indiana doesn't allow many shots at the rim due to the presence of Myles Turner, the Heat don't take that many shots at the rim, relying on three-pointers to generate offense.
I'm not enthralled with the value on either side of this matchup, though I'd lean on Miami to win the series. On a game-by-game basis, I assume most bettors will lean on the unders considering how defensive-minded these teams are. But I'd be interested in taking the over on a Miami total for Game 1 (109.5) considering how many threes they could launch up against Indiana.
Lakers (-500) vs. 
Trail Blazers (+360)
We all know this isn't your typical one/eight matchup. Portland made a late run in the bubble with the return of Jusuf Nurkic, which was also helped by a Memphis collapse. With their backs against the wall, the Blazers claimed the bubble's best offense. Damian Lillard won bubble MVP, with he and Nurkic combining for averages of 55.3 points, 14.5 rebounds, 13.6 assists (5.6 turnovers), 2.8 steals and 2.1 blocks in the eight games. CJ McCollum averaged 20.1 points; Gary Trent averaged 16.9 points on 50.7 percent shooting from three; Carmelo Anthony averaged 16.5 points on 46.9 percent from three.
However, Portland also claimed the bubble's second-worst defense, and that will be a problem against the Lakers. Make no mistake, the Lakers were awful on that side of the ball in the bubble, claiming the second-worst offense. They also had almost nothing to play for. But on the season, Los Angeles has the 11th-best offense and third-best defense. Also, LeBron James is on the team.
It shouldn't be a cakewalk for the Lakers offensively, however. They are desperately reliant on shots at the rim -- second in the league in frequency and first in accuracy -- and Nurkic has shored up Portland's defense at the rim. When he's on the court, Portland allows 5.2 percent fewer shots at the basket (97th percentile). And while Hassan Whiteside's role has been drastically reduced, he should be good for at least one game with monster block numbers.
While this could be a challenging series for Anthony Davis, what Blazer is guarding LeBron? Portland's defensive personnel on the wing is amongst the worst in the league, and LeBron should be able to carve them up. But on the other end, who is locking down Damian Lillard? Alex Caruso, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Danny Green are good defenders, but you'll have a hard time finding someone who thinks they can really keep Lillard in check.
This is shaping up to be an incredibly intriguing series, but I don't have the confidence to pull the trigger on a win for Portland. I'm just not betting against LeBron and AD in the first round, especially at only +360. And while I don't think -500 is amazing value, the risk/reward factor feels less threatening.
Nets (+1,800) vs. 
Raptors (-8,000)
Bucks (-8,000) vs. 
Magic (+1,800)
I would stay away from these two series. From a risk/reward standpoint, it's likely only worth a wager if you're hoping for a sweep or a five-game series -- the five-game series paying out plus money in both cases. Going on a game-by-game basis would probably be more advantageous. For example, taking the Raptors to win Game 1 over the Nets and the total staying under 227.5 pays out +100. That's the bet I'd be most interested in, as the Raptors' offense was the fourth-worst in the bubble, though they had the best defense. The Magic were about average on both sides of the ball.
