This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
It is the first Wednesday after the All-Star break, and plenty of games on the slate. We will look at player playing well since the break, as well as others with good matchups and other factors positively affecting their potential. Also, we will look at a few players who may be safer to avoid.
GUARD
Goran Dragic, MIA vs GS ($20) - After getting traded to Miami last season, Dragic never really clicked with the rest of the roster. Things never really got going for him this season either until near the All-Star break. Since the break, however, he has played his best basketball since his Phoenix peak. He is averaging 21.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 7.7 assists, 1.3 steals and 0.7 triples in 34.7 minutes in three games since the break. That is good enough for 42.8 fantasy points per game, well above his 25.5 fantasy point average this season. Assuming he stays relatively close to as hot as he has been recently, he is a good play based on his asking price. Miami will also likely be playing from behind the whole game against the Warriors, so Dragic should get a lot of run trying to play catch-up.
Mike Conley, MIA vs LAL ($26) - With Marc Gasol out for the season, everyone on the Memphis' roster has an opportunity to step up and replace his offensive production. Mike Conley is a good bet to garner much of that production given that he begins each possession with the ball. Also, he is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season and already indicated he will not sign an extension until he weighs his options. In other words, Conley is looking to get paid. That may be the best incentive for a player to exceed his usual numbers. That motivation combined with Conley's matchup against a Lakers backcourt giving up the most fantasy points per game to point guards seems like a recipe for success Wednesday. The Lakers are also giving up the third-most points per game in the league at 106.7.
Guard to Avoid:
Ricky Rubio, MIN at TOR ($24) - Rubio is a boom-or-bust play, and unfortunately draws a disadvantageous matchup Wednesday. The Raptors are the third best team at defending point guards and also give up the fifth-fewest points per game this season. There are quite a few good point guard plays Wednesday, resulting in Rubio being a bit risky.
FORWARD
Nerlens Noel, PHI at DET ($23) - Since trading for Tobias Harris, the Pistons have struggled defending power forwards. That includes the 59-point, 20-rebound Anthony Davis put up Sunday. Noel will look to take advantage of their recent sluggish performance. He is coming off a poor performance in Dallas, but prior to that he had strung together quite a few solid games in a row. For only $23, Noel has the potential to post numbers well above that value. Take advantage of the Pistons' struggling defense before they get it together.
JaMychal Green, MEM vs LAL ($10) - Green is a good play for the same reason as Mike Conley. Green, however, is specifically replacing Gasol in the rotation and is putting up numbers well above his minimum price of $10. He has posted 8.7 points, 7.0 boards, 1.0 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.0 blocks in 23.7 minutes per game since replacing Marc Gasol in the starting lineup, resulting in 23.7 fantasy points over that stretch. This type of safe play at such a cheap price allows you to grab another higher priced player while not sacrificing production. Also, Green certainly still has the potential to gain confidence and perform even better with a couple starts under his belt. He likely will not be priced at the minimum for much longer, so take advantage of his value while you can.
Forward to Avoid
Julius Randle, LAL at MEM ($24) - Randle really found a groove in the middle portion of the season, but has been a bit more inconsistent lately. He has notched 30 fantasy points once in his last four games but has recorded two in the teens over that time. He will draw a tough matchup on the road against a solid Memphis defense Wednesday, as well. He likely will match up with Zach Randolph, so Marc Gasol's absence should not be too much of a factor either way. Due to an unfavorable matchup, inconsistency, and better plays in a similar price range, Randle may be too much of a risk.
Center
Andre Drummond, DET vs PHI ($38) - Due to some inconsistent play in the middle portion of the season Drummond saw his price fall a little. He is however, still fully capable of putting together remarkable lines and 20-point, 20-rebound performances. He will have a great opportunity to unleash terror in the paint Wednesday against the 76ers. Philadelphia gives up the most fantasy points per game to centers this season and the fifth-most points per game overall at 106.1. Jahlil Okafor has been solid on offense during his rookie season, but his defense still leaves a lot to be desired. Drummond should be able to take advantage of an advantageous matchup, and has the opportunity to produce like a top-tier player at a value price.
Center to Avoid:
Pau Gasol, CHI vs WAS ($37) - Gasol has played very well recently, largely because of the offensive responsibility placed on his shoulders due to the recent rash of injuries the Bulls have faced. There is no reason to expect his solid play not to continue, which is why much of the public likely will go with Gasol, as well. However, due to Gasol's health status it might be wise to fade the public in this matchup. Gasol is already questionable to play due to flu-like symptoms, and even if he goes he could face restricted minutes. Avoiding him Wednesday might be the safest play. There are also a plethora of other good centers available.
