The Saturday hoops slate seldom disappoints this time of year, and this week is no different. We've got great games lined up all day. Here are my predictions for a trio of games tipping off in the late afternoon.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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North Carolina 
at California 
The Tar Heels should be extra locked in and motivated after suffering a last-second loss to Stanford on Wednesday. They've also had a few days to get acclimated to the Pacific Time Zone, which should help.
Despite the loss, UNC still leads the ACC with its offensive efficiency rating during conference play. The Tar Heels also rank in the top four of the conference in effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate, giving them a well-rounded attack.
In contrast, Cal has performed near the bottom of the league on both offense and defense. During conference play, the Golden Bears rank third-worst in the ACC in offensive and defensive efficiency. When Cal has the ball, it ranks last in the league in offensive rebounding and three-point field goal percentage, having made under 27 percent from the perimeter. Cal has also shot poorly from inside the arc, giving it the second-worst effective field goal percentage in the league.
The Golden Bears have also struggled at the other end of the court, posting the third-worst defensive rebounding percentage and two-point field goal percentage allowed in ACC play. The latter area should be of significant concern for Cal, as North Carolina has made over 61 percent of two-point attempts against conference opponents, the third-highest mark in the ACC.
Cal has lost four of five to start the conference season, but in hindsight, this shouldn't be surprising. It began the season at 87th in KenPom's preseason rankings and worked its way up to 61st after playing a non-conference schedule among the top 40 easiest for D-1 teams. Now, it's back down to 84th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, not far from where it was originally projected to be all along.
Given North Carolina's explosive offensive attack, I'm laying the points with the Tar Heels.
College Basketball Best Bet: North Carolina -6.5
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Arkansas 
at Georgia 
The most significant advantage in this matchup belongs to Arkansas, which has a massive edge on the offensive glass. The Razorbacks have the seventh-highest adjusted offensive rating among all D-1 teams (and first in the SEC during conference play), and a big part of the formula is offensive boards. They collect them at a rate that ranks near the Top 100 nationally, and this number has only improved during conference play. At the same time, Georgia has struggled to box out throughout the whole season, ranking in the bottom 100 teams in defensive rebounding percentage, and the problem has persisted against league opponents, posting the second-worst percentage against SEC foes.
The other key concern for the Bulldogs is their interior defense. On paper, Georgia appears outstanding at limiting opponents on two-point conversions, but it's important to note that the Bulldogs played an extremely easy non-conference schedule, among the top 25 nationally, per KenPom. Now that they're playing against fair competition, they're not holding up inside nearly as well, having allowed league opponents to make over 55 percent of two-point attempts, the sixth-worst in the SEC. Arkansas, on the other hand, has improved its interior scoring against league competition, making almost 57 percent of two-point attempts, the third-highest mark in the SEC.
At the other end of the court, the matchup appears much more even. During conference play, Georgia sports an offensive efficiency rating that ranks seventh in the league, and Arkansas matches it with a defensive rating of an equivalent ranking. That said, the Bulldogs aren't shooting nearly as well against SEC opponents. Georgia made 63 percent of two-point attempts against non-conference opponents, but has made just 50 percent against SEC teams, the fourth-worst in the league.
All things considered, I'd much rather take the points with an exceptional offensive team. I'm riding the Razorbacks in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Arkansas +2.5
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Michigan State 
at Washington 
The Spartans look nearly unbeatable with a 15-2 record, though their few weaknesses might be a problem on Saturday as they travel to the Pacific Northwest.
Michigan State's biggest flaw has been its sloppy ball-handling. The Spartans have had this problem all season, ranking 262nd in turnover percentage, but it has worsened during league play, with the worst offensive turnover percentage in the Big Ten. They also rank last in the league in non-steal turnover percentage, suggesting the issue is unforced and less related to great plays by opposing defenses.
This turnover problem is a liability going into any matchup, and Washington's defense thrives on them. The Huskies don't go out of their way to cause turnovers, but KenPom data suggests that turnovers significantly correlate to Washington's defensive success, to an extreme extent, almost the same correlation as effective field goal percentage allowed.
At the other end of the court, Washington's offense has played better in recent weeks. During conference play, the Huskies rank seventh in the Big Ten in offensive rating, powered by the league's third-highest offensive rebounding percentage.
The Spartans are a tough team with a great record, though it's worth noting that KenPom projects they'll likely finish with five more losses between now and the end of the regular season. They might leave Seattle with a win, but I'm betting Washington will make them sweat the outcome. I'm taking the points with the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Washington +3.5
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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- North Carolina -6.5
- Arkansas +2.5
- Washington +3.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
