Wednesday's college hoops slate features a pair of Big Ten showdowns, as well as a couple of dozen non-con games with a few notable programs teeing off against mid-majors. Here are my predictions for a trio of games on Wednesday evening.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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New Mexico 
at VCU 
The Lobos aren't the best offensively, but their defense is proving to be a feisty unit. New Mexico ranks 33rd in defensive turnover percentage, an essential skill because VCU's most glaring offensive issue is its tendency to give the ball away, ranking 187th in offensive turnover percentage. The other area where UNM plays well defensively is on the perimeter, holding opponents to under 31 percent from beyond the arc (86th). This is again an essential stat in this matchup because the Rams' primary offensive strategy is long-range shooting, with attempts at the 55th-highest frequency.
At the other end of the court, the Lobos haven't been as strong, ranking 109th in adjusted offensive efficiency, but they excel inside the paint. UNM has made almost 56 percent of shots inside the arc (79th), and they rank 133rd in free-throw attempt rate, a key trait that could help them on Wednesday, as VCU has struggled to avoid fouls, ranking 247th in free-throw attempt rate allowed.
Playing on the road is seldom easy, but UNM appears to have the right tools to keep the game close. I'm taking the points with the Lobos.
College Basketball Best Bet: New Mexico +9.5
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Western Kentucky 
at Marshall 
In comparing these teams side-by-side, two massive discrepancies jump off the screen, both favoring Western Kentucky.
First, the Hilltoppers are among the best teams in the nation at getting to the charity stripe, ranking 37th in free-throw attempt rate. Coincidentally, Marshall is one of the worst teams at committing fouls, ranking 328th in free-throw attempt rate allowed. Safe to say Western Kentucky will take frequent trips to the foul line on Wednesday, where it has converted almost 73 percent, a tick above the D-1 average.
Second, the Hilltoppers are highly proficient at generating takeaways, ranking 96th in defensive turnover percentage. This leads us to another significant coincidence: Marshall is one of the worst teams at giving the ball away, ranking 296th in offensive turnover percentage. Advanced correlation statistics on KenPom suggest that turnovers significantly affect Marshall's offensive production, more so than other teams, so this is an area we can't overlook.
Marshall's offensive game plan revolves around the three-point shot, as this type of score accounts for over 38 percent of its total points (37th), so there's always a risk that the Thundering Herd will get scorching hot and bury Western Kentucky. It's also true that the Herd has made under 27 percent of its three-point attempts for the last three games (20-of-75), so they have certainly cooled off after lighting the nets on fire through the first few weeks of the season.
Given WKU's aforementioned advantages and Marshall's recent cold streak, I have to go with the Hilltoppers in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Western Kentucky +1.5
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Wisconsin 
at Nebraska 
This pick is all about offense.
Wisconsin is ranked 25th in adjusted offensive efficiency, while Nebraska is ranked 56th, and it's easy to see why after taking a closer look. Nebraska is incredibly one-dimensional.
The Huskers are proving to be a dangerous team from the perimeter, knocking down almost 35 percent of three-point attempts while attempting them at the ninth-highest frequency among all D-1 teams, but that's really the only trick they've got. They rank 293rd in offensive rebounding percentage and 270th in free-throw attempt rate, which limits their scoring opportunities to long-range jumpers.
The Badgers, meanwhile, are similarly skilled at three-point shooting, knocking down 34 percent while attempting them at the 11th-highest rate, but the key is they do other things just as well. The Badgers rank 122nd in offensive rebounding and 180th in free-throw attempt rate, while converting 80 percent from the charity stripe (nearly nine percent better than Nebraska). They also seldom turn the ball over, ranking 31st in turnover percentage.
Nebraska, like any other team that lives and dies on the three-point shot, is liable to get hot and win with its shooting abilities. Still, my money is on Wisconsin, which can pivot to other scoring methods if its jump shots aren't falling. I'm going with the Badgers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Wisconsin +1.5
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Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- New Mexico +9.5
- Western Kentucky +1.5
- Wisconsin +1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
