This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Friday's college hoops slate brings us an intriguing clash in the Bronx and a game that could potentially decide the conference champion of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Here are my predictions for a couple of games on the slate.
Duquesne 
at Fordham 
Duquesne stumbled out of the gate when conference season tipped off, losing its first five games against Atlantic 10 opponents. The Dukes have been playing better in recent weeks, winning seven of their last nine games, although six of the games were at home, so Friday will offer an important test as they travel to the Bronx.
Fordham, meanwhile, also enters Friday with a losing conference record, 4-9 to be exact, although the Rams have still shown flashes of playing well. They have two quality wins, according to KenPom, defeating North Texas and winning at St. Bonaventure, so they're certainly capable of beating a decent team, even though they've had inconsistent results throughout the season. In looking at how they match up against their guests, they have a couple of areas going in their favor.
Fordham has significantly higher rebounding percentages at both ends of the court. During conference play, the Rams have the third-highest offensive rebounding percentage, while the Dukes have the second-worst defensive percentage in the league, likely leading to many put-back opportunities for the home team on Friday. The advantage is just as massive when the Dukes have the ball, logging the third-worst offensive rebounding percentage compared to the fourth-best defensive number for the Rams.
Fordham also has an advantage in the turnover department. Duquesne has been one of the sloppiest teams in the Atlantic 10, recording the second-worst offensive turnover percentage since the conference season started, a foreboding stat in this matchup because Fordham ranks third in the league in defensive turnovers. At the other end of the court, Fordham ranks seventh in offensive turnover percentage during league play, an important note because Duquesne ranks first on the defensive side.
These two teams previously met at the end of January, and Duquesne won, 68-59, but it's worth noting that Fordham held a three-point lead with seven minutes remaining before the Dukes took back the lead and pulled away late. Considering the last game was relatively competitive, and the aforementioned advantages, I'm taking the points with the home team.
Additionally, I'm also betting that we'll have a low-scoring game. Based on the efficiency numbers, these are the two worst offensive teams in the Atlantic 10. Duquesne has the worst offensive efficiency rating in the league since the conference season started, with Fordham ranking one slot above it. Also helping this cause is the fact that neither team is in a hurry to try and score. Neither team ranks in the top half of the league in tempo during conference play, so this is likely to be a grinding defensive battle. I'm also taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Fordham +3 and Under 139.5
Fairfield 
at Quinnipiac 
Here we have the top two teams in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference facing off. Quinnipiac leads the league with 11 conference wins with Fairfield trailing by one. Suffice it to say, these two teams are evenly matched when looking at overall efficiency numbers. That said, one appears to have a decisive edge when comparing the teams side-by-side.
When Fairfield has the ball, it normally scores easily, but that's not likely the case on Friday. During league play, the Stags have the highest offensive efficiency rating in the MAAC. Still, they're facing a Bobcats team that can counter with a defense that has the third-best efficiency rating in the conference. Quinnipiac also ranks third in the league in effective field goal percentage allowed and two-point field goal percentage allowed, so it's a stout unit any way you look at it.
Unlike their guests on Friday, Quinnipiac should have plenty of open looks when the Bobcats have the ball. Quinnipiac has performed decently on offense since the conference season tipped off, ranking fifth in the MAAC in efficiency while making 51 percent of two-point field goals, the fourth-highest percentage in the league. The latter is important because Fairfield has not performed well on defense, eighth in the conference in efficiency, and that's especially true in the paint. The Stags allow MAAC opponents to make over 54 percent of shots inside the arc, the worst percentage in the league. If that's not enough, Quinnipiac also has an advantage on the glass, ranking 113th in offensive rebounding percentage compared to 300th on defense for Fairfield.
These two teams already clashed back on January 28th, and Quinnipiac won by a final score of 66-64. The Bobcats held a seven-point lead with under six minutes remaining before the Stags attempted a furious comeback. Based on how these two teams match up against each other, I'm betting the rematch will have a similar outcome. And for what it's worth, Quinnipiac has covered the spread in eight of its last 11 games, according to Action Network. I'm laying the points with the Bobcats in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Quinnipiac -2.5
Friday College Basketball Best Bets
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Fordham +3.5
- Duquesne at Fordham - Under 139.5
- Quinnipiac -2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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