This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
With the second half of the Sweet 16 on tap for Friday's college hoops slate, here are my predictions for the day.
Gonzaga 
vs. Purdue 
These two teams previously clashed back on November 20 in Hawaii, where Purdue won by a final score of 73-63.
A double-digit loss never looks good, but in reviewing the box score, it's hard to say that Gonzaga was significantly outplayed. The Bulldogs tallied five more offensive boards and three more steals than the Boilermakers, and both teams were tied in total rebounds, making it a fairly tight game in most categories. The key difference came down to shooting. Gonzaga had one of its worst shooting performances of the season, making 6-of-32 attempts from behind the arc, only one of four games making under 20 percent of three-point attempts. The Bulldogs don't necessarily rely on three-pointers, as they only account for 25 percent of their total points, but when they connect on their long-range shots, they are effectively unbeatable. Gonzaga has recorded 20 games this season with at least seven made three-pointers, undefeated in all 20. Purdue's defense isn't weak on the perimeter, but comparatively speaking, that's the most vulnerable part. The Boilermakers held conference opponents to the second-lowest two-point field goal percentage in the Big Ten, but they also ranked ninth in three-point field goal percentage allowed.
When Purdue has the ball, its potent offensive attack is nearly unstoppable, except it has one weakness. Turnovers. The Boilermakers have allowed opponents to steal the ball at a high frequency, ranking 230th among all D1 teams in offensive steal percentage. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, have proven to be an opportunistic group, ranking 154th in defensive steal percentage, so this is an area where they can take advantage, as they demonstrated in their first encounter with Purdue. Gonzaga also does two other things well on defense, which are critical when playing against Purdue. The Bulldogs have the 20th-best defensive free-throw attempt rate, an essential trait considering the Boilermakers rank ninth in offensive free-throw attempt rate among all D1 teams. Gonzaga is also effective at securing defensive boards, ranking 106th in that category, which is important because Purdue ranks sixth in offensive rebounding percentage.
Overall, Gonzaga appears well-equipped to handle Purdue. The Bulldogs are playing their best basketball of the season, winning 11 of their last 12 games, and they have defeated many strong opponents during this stretch. They have defeated Kentucky, San Francisco, and Saint Mary's, all on the road, and then, more recently, they blew past McNeese State and Kansas in the NCAA Tournament. All things considered, I'm betting this game will come down to the final minute. I'm taking the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Gonzaga +5.5
Duke 
vs. Houston
Despite entering the tournament as a four-seed, Duke is one of the best and most balanced teams still standing. The Blue Devils rank fifth on KenPom's overall efficiency standings, just a few ticks behind the Cougars at number two. Duke also ranks fifth in offensive efficiency and 20th on defense, giving it a fair matchup against Houston, which ranks second and 14th in the same two categories, respectively.
In looking at Duke's offensive profile, it's clear why it's so effective at scoring points. The Blue Devils do many different things very well. They rank 23rd in offensive turnover percentage, 78th in offensive rebounding, 13th in three-point field goal percentage, and 39th in two-point field goal percentage. These excellent numbers are paramount when facing the Cougars. Houston ranks third in the nation in defensive turnover percentage, so the fact that Duke rarely commits a turnover is critical. The Cougars' vaunted defense only has two weaknesses, and the Blue Devils excel in both those areas. First, Houston ranks 273rd in defensive rebounding percentage, so we can anticipate that Duke will have several put-back opportunities on Friday. Second, the Blue Devils frequently draw contact when attacking the basket, recording the 135th-highest free-throw attempt rate. This is another key area because the Cougars have had severe issues with fouling, ranking 322nd in defensive free-throw attempt rate.
At the other end of the court, we have another close matchup. The Cougars don't shoot the ball well, recording an effective field goal percentage perfectly in line with the D1 average. This trait worsened when playing against league competition, ranking 10th in the Big 12 in the same category. Houston makes up for its lack of efficient shooting with elite offensive rebounding, ranking 11th among all D1 teams. Duke, a team that doesn't lack size, ranks 52nd in defensive rebounding percentage, so the Blue Devils should be able to limit the Cougars' second-chance points.
All in all, Duke appears poised to counter Houston in most areas. Duke doesn't turn the ball over, works the offensive glass, and draws contact at the rim. These traits don't guarantee a win, but they certainly give the Blue Devils a fair chance at punching their ticket to the Elite Eight. I'm taking the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Duke +4
Creighton 
vs. Tennessee 
Tennessee's mighty defense has seemed impenetrable for much of the season, however, it's had plenty of vulnerable moments just like any other college basketball team. The Volunteers haven't lost many times this season, but when they fall, it's often because their defense gets torched. Tennessee allowed 100 points to North Carolina in November, 77 points to Mississippi State in January, 85 points to Texas A&M in February, and 85 points to Kentucky in March. The Vols' best defensive attributes are their ability to cause turnovers and defend the paint, although that doesn't mean as much in this matchup because the Bluejays are strong offensively in both areas. Creighton ranks 69th in offensive turnover percentage and third in two-point field goal percentage, but that's only part of the story. The Bluejays are knocking down 37 percent of their shots from behind the arc while attempting them at the seventh-highest frequency among all D1 teams, contributing to the third-highest effective field goal percentage. For good measure, Creighton is also among the best from the charity stripe, making 78 percent of its foul shots, the 10th-highest mark in the nation.
When playing in the other direction, we again have another tight matchup. Tennessee enters Friday with the 30th-highest offensive efficiency rating, and it's taking on a Creighton team with the 23rd-best defensive efficiency rating. That said, a closer look at the numbers reveals one of these sides isn't as great as it appears. Specifically, the Volunteers have middling shooting numbers. Tennessee ranks 124th in two-point field goal percentage and 179th in three-point field goal percentage, not awful numbers, but nowhere close to Creighton on the defensive side. The Bluejays rank 18th in two-point field goal percentage allowed and 53rd in three-point field goal percentage allowed, but 'the whole is greater than the sum of its parts' as Creighton has the 10th-best effective field goal percentage allowed among all D1 teams.
Looking at the bottom line, Creighton has the more consistent offensive attack and has all the defensive tools to stop Tennessee. The Bluejays aren't perfect, but they also defeated UConn by 19 points earlier in the season, perhaps the most impressive victory for anyone not named Connecticut. Tennessee is favored for a reason, but given all the data, I like Creighton's odds of advancing to the Elite Eight. I'm taking the Bluejays and the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Creighton +3
Friday College Basketball Best Bets
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Gonzaga +5.5
- Duke +4
- Creighton +3
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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