This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Pound for pound, Friday's college hoops slate is arguably the best of the season thus far. We have several title contenders in action, and not only that, but they're also playing comparable opponents at true road venues. Here are my picks for some of the most intriguing matchups of the day.
TCU 
at Michigan
The Horned Frogs enter Friday with a 3-0 record, with the first two victories coming by double-digits against teams from the lower levels of D-1. TCU's recent game against Texas State was a bit closer, 76-71, but it's worth noting that TCU led by nine with three remaining, so this outcome was never truly in doubt. Now, the Horned Frogs travel to Ann Arbor for their toughest test of the non-conference season.
Michigan, in contrast, has a 1-1 record after traveling to North Carolina and falling to Wake Forest 72-70. The Demon Deacons are ranked 73rd in KenPom's overall efficiency chart, so this loss was discouraging for a team that hoped to bounce back in its first year under new head coach Dusty May. The Wolverines are still ranked 31st in overall efficiency, so they appear to be in fine shape if you believe the preseason projections, however, we're only two games into the season and Michigan ranks 282nd in roster continuity, so there's still a large amount of uncertainty surrounding this team. The Wolverines went 8-24 (3-17 in conference) last season, so it's hard to say how good this year's team can be despite changing the roster and the coach.
In looking at Michigan's early performances, the Wolverines have two glaring weaknesses. First, they're careless with the ball, ranking 306th in offensive turnover percentage. The Horned Frogs rank 114th in defensive turnover percentage, and they ranked top-27 in the nation in this category in each of the past two years, so there's a good chance this ranking will improve during the season. At the other end of the court, the Horned Frogs have been careful, ranking 82nd in offensive turnover percentage, so it's a decent bet that TCU will win the turnover margin on Friday.
Second, Michigan has also been terrible on the defensive glass, ranking 322nd in defensive rebounding percentage. Again, this is another area where TCU can take advantage because the Horned Frogs rank 46th in offensive rebounding percentage and 15th on the defensive end, giving us a team that is strong on the boards in both directions.
In summary, TCU has a massive offensive rebounding advantage, and a noticeable turnover advantage, all the while Michigan is unproven with a new coach and several new players coming together. I'm taking the Horned Frogs and the points in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: TCU +8.5
Alabama 
at Purdue 
By now, most college hoops fans are well aware of the raised expectations that head coach Nate Oats has brought to the Alabama Basketball program. The Crimson Tide have made the NCAA Tournament in four consecutive seasons, advancing to the Sweet 16 a couple of times before reaching the Final Four last year. And perhaps just as impressively, Alabama has finished in the top 30 of KenPom's overall efficiency rankings in each of these years, finishing in the top 10 in two of them. Given this impressive track record, it's no surprise to see that this year's squad enters Friday with a 3-0 record and a 10th-place standing in overall efficiency. Unlike last year's Final Four team, however, the current group ranks 20th in defensive efficiency, a gigantic leap forward from last year when they finished 111th. If they can sustain this level of defense, perhaps they'll go even farther this year.
For all the accolades that Alabama's coach has earned in recent years, he still has a long way to go to catch Purdue coach Matt Painter. The Boilermakers have made the NCAA Tournament in 15 of 19 total seasons under coach Painter (including the Covid season, where nobody made the Tournament), so we can never count out the Boilermakers or take them lightly. Unfortunately for Purdue, they no longer have two-time Naismith winner Zach Edey to patrol the paint, but it still has plenty of other gifted players to keep winning, including junior point guard Braden Smith, currently ranked seventh on KenPom's Player of the Year standings.
In breaking down Purdue's 3-0 start to the season, the team looks solid, although they have exhibited a noticeable drop-off on defense compared to last year's squad that made the NCAA Tournament Final. Specifically, last year, the Boilermakers finished 12th in defensive efficiency, but this year's team has fallen to 54th in that category. Offensively, however, they haven't missed a beat, maintaining their fourth-place standing in offensive efficiency, identical to where they finished last season.
Comparing these two teams side-by-side, a couple of areas stand out. First, Alabama is performing significantly better on the glass. The Crimson Tide rank 77th in offensive rebounding percentage, much higher than the Boilermakers on defense, 169th, and then the Tide rank 72nd in defensive rebounding, again much higher than their opponent, 214th on offense. Second, Alabama is also noticeably better at handling the ball. Purdue ranks 213th in offensive turnover percentage, much lower than Alabama, 122nd in the same category. Neither team has been great at causing turnovers on defense so far.
All in all, the Crimson Tide have a clear advantage on the boards, in turnovers, and on defense. And then, if we're looking at intangibles, Alabama is also much more experienced (27th compared to 219th), for whatever it's worth.
These two teams faced off in Toronto, Canada, last season, where Purdue won by a final score of 92-86. Alabama led throughout, and it was a one-point margin with under four minutes remaining, so this game arguably could've gone either way. Both teams returned many significant players who had competed in the game, though the most prominent of all is long gone. Edey put up 35 points when these teams clashed last year, and I'm not sure if the final outcome will be the same without him this time around. I'm taking Bama in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Alabama -2.5
Ohio State 
at Texas A&M 
The Buckeyes earned a big win in Las Vegas on opening night, taking down Texas 80-72. Ohio State followed that up with another strong performance, defeating Youngstown State by a final score of 81-47. It's hard to find any issues with Ohio State through these first two games, but that will likely change after Friday when it heads down to College Station to face its toughest test yet.
The Aggies, meanwhile, didn't get off to the best start, as they traveled to Orlando and lost to UCF in the season-opener, 64-61. We can't simply excuse a loss and pretend it didn't happen, but I would be remiss if I didn't point out that Texas A&M led by nine with five minutes remaining, and if you trust KenPom, this means they had a 95 percent chance of winning the game at that point. Instead, UCF went on an improbable 14-2 run to close out the game. Despite suffering the frustrating loss, Texas A&M went on to win its next two games with ease, a pair of 25-plus point victories over lower-tier opponents. Now, the Aggies get a shot at redemption to make up for its first game.
Unlike most teams, Texas A&M is rare in that it didn't endure much roster turnover. The Aggies rank sixth in minutes continuity among all D-1 teams, and they rank 16th in experience, making them one of the most cohesive teams in the country. They also rank 20th in bench minutes, further underscoring this point. Ohio State, in contrast, ranks 77th in D-1 experience and 229th in continuity, so not nearly as tight-knit as the host team.
Additionally, Texas A&M also holds an edge in several other categories. The Aggies have a massive advantage on the offensive glass, ranking 11th in offensive rebounding percentage, going against a Buckeyes team that ranks 220th in defensive rebounding. Texas A&M will also likely win the turnover battle, ranking 141st in defensive turnover percentage compared to 285th on offense for Ohio State. Not only are the Buckeyes sloppy with the ball, but they aren't causing many on defense, ranking 278th in defensive turnover percentage.
I also couldn't help but notice that Ohio State has been scorching hot from behind the arc, making 48 percent of all three-point attempts so far. The Buckeyes appear to have several skilled shooters, so it's not surprising if they shoot at a high percentage, however, 48 percent is unsustainable long-term. For better context, only two squads among all 362 D-1 teams last season made at least 40 percent of their three-pointers. Kentucky led the nation with 40.9 percent. The Buckeyes' shooting numbers should come down over time.
Considering each team's strengths and weaknesses, Texas A&M appears to be in a good spot to defend its home court. I'm laying the points with the Aggies in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas A&M -6
Friday College Basketball Best Bets
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- TCU +8.5
- Alabama -2.5
- Texas A&M -6
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
