This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
It took a few days but we finally have another marquee matchup on the college hoops slate. Here are my picks and analysis for arguably the two most intriguing games of the day.
North Carolina 
at Kansas 
The Tar Heels won their season opener on Monday, defeating Elon by a final score of 90-76. The game was in Chapel Hill and relatively uneventful, no surprise considering the Tar Heels are returning a significant portion of last year's team that made a trip to the Sweet 16. North Carolina doesn't have Armando Bacot anymore, but it still has the likes of RJ Davis, Elliot Cadeau, and Seth Trimble to lead the way. This year's team is ranked at No. 17 on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, not too far from last season when it finished ninth.
At first glance the main area where North Carolina needs to improve is defense. Last year, the Tar Heels ranked eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency, but this year's team sits at 35th, which is good but not elite. Offensively, they're up a tick, now at 13th in efficiency compared to 15th back in March.
The Jayhawks had a similar day on Monday, cruising over Howard by a final score of 87-57. The margin of victory was massive, though this was expected, as Kansas was seventh in overall efficiency before the game and it's still in the same slot entering Friday. Unlike their opponent on Friday, Kansas still has its superstar center on the roster in the form of Hunter Dickinson. In addition to returning its center, Kansas also has its senior point guard Dajuan Harris, and senior forward KJ Adams back in the fold for another year. This nucleus of returning players is supplemented with noteworthy transfers such as Zeke Mayo and AJ Storr, giving the Jayhawks good reason for high expectations (though this is obviously par for the course for the Kansas Basketball program).
On paper, Kansas is among the most balanced teams in the nation. We only have one game and preseason projections to work with, but the Jayhawks profile as a top-10 team in the country on both ends of the court.
Comparing these teams side-by-side, both appear locked-and-loaded in the backcourt, however the same can't necessarily be said about the personnel in the frontcourt. North Carolina lost an immense amount of talent from last season in Bacot and Harrison Ingram, and while Jae'Lyn Withers and Jalen Washington are solid players in their own right, it's hard to expect them to fill such massive shoes. Withers played 31 percent of all team minutes last season, and Washington wasn't far behind at 21 percent of minutes, so they may develop into good players, but at this point, it's safe to say the frontcourt isn't as strong as last year.
Kansas, meanwhile, has Dickinson and several immensely talented forwards in KJ Adams, Rylan Griffen, a transfer who played important minutes at Alabama last season, and AJ Storr, Winsconin's leading scorer from a year ago. Kansas has a wealth of depth any way you look at it.
Given its lineage and pedigree, it wouldn't surprise me if North Carolina pulls off the road upset on Thursday, however, considering the Jayhawks' advantage in the frontcourt, I'm betting that Kanas will pull away by the end of the game. I'm laying the points with the Jayhawks.
Additionally, I'm also taking the under based on the number. It's extremely high, for good reason, but all it takes is one scoring draught and suddenly hitting the number becomes a daunting task. As mentioned earlier, Kansas is ranked ninth in defensive efficiency, and while North Carolina isn't ranked that high at the moment, it finished eighth in defense last year with several of the same players returning. Also, if the front-court mismatch plays out as posited, then the Tar Heels' final point total might be on the lower side. I should also note, it appears that the total opened around 153 and shot up. I like the under if you can round it up to 160, but anything lower and I'm out.
College Basketball Best Bet: Kansas -7.5 and Under 158.5
New Mexico 
vs. UCLA 
New Mexico started the season with a victory at home on Monday against Nicholls, 91-84, essentially a warm-up game for a big matchup on Friday that could come back to help (or haunt) them come March. Now, the Lobos will travel to Henderson, Nevada, and take on the UCLA Bruins.
New Mexico head coach Richard Pitino enters his fourth season at the helm. When Pitino first arrived, the Lobos were coming off a year where they went 6-16, and then last season they made their first NCAA tournament appearance in 10 years. The Lobos are returning a significant amount of talent from last year's team, so there's a fair chance they will make consecutive trips to the Big Dance for the first time since 2012-2014 when they made three straight.
The biggest reason for optimism is the return of star point guard Donovan Dent, who's effective at creating for himself and his teammates. Additionally, the Lobos have senior center Nelly Junior Joseph, who last season ranked top-five among all qualified Mountain West players in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. These two players are so well-regarded that they were named to the Preseason All-Mountain West Team. The Lobos were one of just two teams with multiple selections to the 10-man team. Considering all this firepower, it makes sense that reigning conference champion New Mexico was selected second in the preseason Mountain West poll, its highest spot since 2013-14 (first).
UCLA also started the season with a win, an 85-50 victory over Rider. The decisive victory was much needed for the Bruins after enduring a losing season last year, its first since 2015-16. UCLA's defense took a step back last season, but it was still a stingy unit. The bigger issue came in the scoring department. The Bruins ranked 152nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, its worst rating since 2003-4, their first season under coach Ben Howland when they finished 165th. But now, this year's team looks substantially better in that category. Not only is its offense efficiency rating way up, No. 25, but UCLA already scored more points (85) than in any game last season, logging the highest single-game point total since March 16, 2023, an 86-53 NCAA Tournament win over No. 15-seed UNC Asheville.
The Bruins added nine incoming players this season, consisting of six transfers and three freshmen. But more importantly, they now have eight players who averaged at least 10.0 points per game last season for their college programs. In addition to the new faces, UCLA also has six returning contributors from last season, including key players such as senior Lazar Stefanovic, junior Dylan Andrews, and sophomore Sebastian Mack. Based on the new roster, UCLA was picked to finish third in the Big Ten Preseason media poll. They have a long way to go, but expectations are certainly high.
When comparing the starting lineups in this matchup, the Lobos appear well-equipped to stay in the game, however, it's hard to ignore the Bruins' depth. Not only does UCLA have key players returning, but they added several players with high-level experience. And while New Mexico still has high expectations, it lost many important players on last year's team, including ultra-talented freshman JT Toppin who transferred to Texas Tech.
I won't be surprised if New Mexico has a lead at halftime, but I'm betting UCLA's defense tightens up by the end of the game and wins by double-digits. I'm laying the points in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: UCLA -6
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Kansas -7.5
- North Carolina at Kansas - Under 158.5
- UCLA -6
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
