This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The first Saturday of 2025 features a loaded college hoops slate with many big-name teams playing throughout the day. Here are my predictions for a trio of games tipping off later in the day.
San Diego State 
at Boise State 
The last time the Aztecs took the court, they blew a double-digit lead at home and lost to Utah State by one point. I previewed this game here where I picked against San Diego State for a couple of reasons that still hold up heading into Saturday's matchup.
The Broncos, meanwhile, are riding a five-game winning streak with a noteworthy win against Saint Mary's. They also beat Clemson in November.
San Diego State boasts an elite defense, though there's one huge flaw that isn't going away - and that's on the boards ranking 276th in defensive rebounding percentage. This problem will likely be amplified Saturday as Boise State lists the 42nd-highest offensive rebounding percentage. This should lead to many second-chance opportunities, and the Broncos are built to take advantage. They make over 55 percent of two-point attempts and are great at drawing contact at 32nd in free-throw attempt rate. The latter will also likely come into play as San Diego State are 196th in free-throw attempt rate allowed.
The Broncos don't boast the same elite defense as their opponent, but they still know how to make life difficult on opposing offenses at 72nd in defensive efficiency. They don't cause many turnovers, yet they excel in other important defensive areas ranking top-80 in the nation for effective field goal percentage, free-throw attempt rate, two-point field goal percentage, and feature the fourth-best side in defensive rebounding percentage. This isn't great news for the Aztecs, who are above-average from three-point range while otherwise below-average in free-throw attempts and two-point field goal percentage.
The Aztecs have a chance of winning most games thanks to their defense abilities, but this isn't a favorable matchup. In addition to playing a team that can take advantage of their defensive weakness, the Aztecs must travel almost a thousand miles and take on a gritty Bronco squad that has already defeated multiple strong defensive opponents. For those reasons, I'm taking the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Boise State -4.5
Oklahoma 
at Alabama 
The Sooners are one of three remaining undefeated D-1 teams along with Tennessee and Florida. While all share identical 13-0 records, one is not like the others. That is, the latter two reside in the top-10 of KenPom's overall efficiency standings while Oklahoma is down at No. 41. The real problem is the lack of competition. The Sooners have played one of the easiest schedules in the nation ranking 345th in difficulty despite beating Providence, Arizona, and Louisville en route to winning the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament while defeating Michigan a couple weeks ago. These were four excellent results, but it's important to remember nine of those 13 contests came against teams from the lower levels of D-1.
In stark contrast, the Crimson Tide has seen one of the most challenging slates at 11th in difficulty. Alabama collected victories over Illinois, Houston, North Carolina, and Creighton while only suffering two losses. Much like last year's team that made the Final Four, the current lineup is again among the best at scoring sitting fourth in offensive efficiency. The biggest difference is on the defensive side where they rank 46th in efficiency compared to 111th a season ago.
Alabama's improved defense will be important Saturday as Oklahoma has relied on its offense to win games. The Sooners have the 28th-highest offensive efficiency rating and perform well in most areas with a strong effective field goal percentage and free-throw attempt rate. The Crimson Tide have similar standings on defense at 31st in effective field goal percentage allowed and 112th in free-throw attempt rate allowed to make this a somewhat even matchup on D.
When playing at the other end, Oklahoma has a tall task of trying to stop Alabama's offense. The Tide have already dropped 100 points on Illinois, a team with the seventh-best defensive efficiency rating. They also scored 78 points in regulation during its win over Houston. Oklahoma ranks 74th in defensive efficiency, which isn't bad but not ideal against Alabama. What's far worse is that the Sooners are 241st in defensive rebounding percentage and the Tide rank 26th in offensive rebounding percentage. Alabama has also made 63 percent of shots from inside the arc - the highest in the country - while the Sooners have given up almost 54 percent, which is well below the D-1 average. Add all this up, and Alabama will likely take advantage of their second-chance opportunities.
Oklahoma has compiled a perfect non-conference season, yet the numbers indicate their winning isn't sustainable. KenPom projects the Sooners will lose 10 of 18 conference games, starting with Saturday. Given Alabama's offensive firepower and specific advantages over Oklahoma's defense, I'm betting the Crimson Tide will put on a show to take its conference opener and taking the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Alabama -12.5
Texas Tech 
at Utah 
The Red Raiders are coming off a disappointing home loss to UCF, though the team is still capable of making a run to the postseason if it can get back in the win column Saturday. They're ranked 26th in overall efficiency, thanks largely to its proficient offensive attack. KenPom projects them to win 11 of 19 remaining conference games, including Saturday's matchup.
The Utes don't have any quality wins to their credit and the overall numbers don't paint a positive picture having seen of the easiest non-conference schedules among all D-1 teams while getting blown out against one of their more challenging opponents. I flagged this as a concern when I picked against Utah on Dec. 21 against Iowa, and sure enough they lost 95-88. They were humbled even further next time out at Baylor and got beaten by 25. One might think the Utes will find a way to rebound at home on Saturday, but it's also possible the worst is yet to come without being tested much in the non-conference campaign. Based on current standings, KenPom is projecting Utah will lose 12 of 19 remaining conference games.
When Texas Tech has the ball on Saturday, they'll face a Utah defense that looks fine on paper while also getting lit up when playing against better offensive sides. The Utes rank 61st in defensive efficiency, though all four of their defeats have come against teams with a top-50 offensive efficiency rating. The Red Raiders are 13th entering Saturday, fitting the bill for a team that can torch Utah's defense. Texas Tech also rank top-30 over most offensive categories, including effective field goal percentage, turnovers, and rebounding.
When Utah is in possession, their offense will be tested by a defense that doesn't have many weak areas, if any. Texas Tech are 56th in defensive efficiency - noticeably higher than Utah's 95th-ranked offense - while holding a similar standing in effective field goal percentage allowed and turnover percentage. Utah has posted above-average numbers in most offensive categories, yet we have the big caveat that most of its games were played against lower-level teams.
Looking at the bottom line, Texas Tech holds a decisive edge at both ends. Going against a home team is sometimes tricky, but this is a situation where we can take a substantially better team at a small price. Give me the Red Raiders.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas Tech -2.5
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Boise State -4.5
- Alabama -12.5
- Texas Tech -2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
