This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We don't have many high-profile teams taking the court on Saturday, but nonetheless, we still have several intriguing games on the board. Here are my predictions for a pair of games tipping off in the late afternoon.
South Carolina 
at Indiana 
The Gamecocks dropped their season opener to North Florida, 74-71, but rebounded in the following two games against South Carolina State and Towson to improve to 2-1. The loss to the Ospreys doesn't look good, but it's worth noting that South Carolina maintained a lead for most of the game before stumbling at the end. With two minutes remaining, the Gamecocks had a three-point lead and KenPom gave them a 90 percent chance to win at that point, but instead, North Florida made a game-tying three-pointer on the next possession and outmaneuvered South Carolina to steal the win. We can't simply shrug off the loss, but one would think the Gamecocks would hang on for the win if they were in the situation again.
At his last job, South Carolina head coach Lamont Paris took a Chattanooga team from 10-23 in his first year to 27-8 and an NCAA Tournament appearance in his final season with the team, four years later. Paris pulled off a similar feat in a much shorter time with South Carolina, taking the Gamecocks from 11-21 in his first season to 26-8 a year ago with an NCAA Tournament appearance to boot. South Carolina ranks 76th in roster continuity and 123rd in D-1 experience, so this group has the potential to build off last season.
The Hoosiers, meanwhile, sit 2-0 following a pair of lay-up wins over SIUE and Eastern Illinois. These teams rank in the 300s in overall efficiency, so Saturday marks the first real test of the season.
Indiana took a step back last season, finishing 19-14 (10-10 in conference) after making the NCAA Tournament in the first two seasons under head coach Mike Woodson. The Hoosiers returned multiple key players from last year's squad, and they imported multiple high-level transfers such as Oumar Ballo and Myles Rice, giving them a potential shot at getting back to the Big Dance. That said, despite the new players, KenPom has this year's team projected to finish with a 10-10 conference record, identical to last season.
Looking at Saturday's matchup, when Indiana has the ball, South Carolina is well-equipped to defend. The Gamecocks are holding opponents to under 43 percent on two-point shots, the 58th-best mark in the nation, an important stat because Indiana's strength lies in the paint, where it's made 66 percent of attempts, the eighth-highest percentage. As mentioned earlier, the Hoosiers haven't played any difficult opponents, so we can't necessarily expect Indiana's field goal percentage to remain this high going forward. South Carolina has the 27th-best effective field goal percentage allowed, so it's also done a good job holding down the perimeter.
When South Carolina has the ball on Saturday, there's one key area where the Gamecocks have an edge: offensive rebounding. South Carolina ranks 48th in that category, while Indiana ranks 103rd in defensive rebounding percentage, making it likely that the Gamecocks see several put-back opportunities.
All things considered, I believe this game has a decent chance of coming down to the final minute. I'm taking the points in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: South Carolina +7.5
Yale 
at Minnesota
The Bulldogs made noise last season when it pulled an unlikely upset in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, shocking four-seed Auburn, 78-76. A couple of key players in that game have since transferred away, although Yale still returned a good portion of the team, ranking 31st in minutes continuity, per KenPom.
Yale enters Saturday with a 2-2 record, earning sizable victories over Quinnipiac and Emerson, though it lost to Illinois Chicago and Purdue. The latter game was an eight-point difference, which isn't exactly close, but the performance against the Boilermakers was still good enough to raise Yale's overall efficiency ranking from 114th to 106th. Now, the Bulldogs get another shot at earning their first road win.
Minnesota, meanwhile, hasn't left home and is coming off its first stumble of the season, a 54-51 loss to North Texas. Earlier in the week, I previewed this matchup and picked the Mean Green for a few reasons.
First, while the Gophers made significant improvements last year, they still finished with a losing conference record and ranked 78th in overall efficiency. This year's team is currently at 74th, and they haven't given us much reason to think they've made any strides. Before the North Texas loss, Minnesota showed concerning signs in its win against Nebraska Omaha. The Gophers defeated the Mavericks by just four points despite the latter being ranked 280th in overall efficiency. And this final score isn't a case of a favored team building a big lead and then letting up at the end — quite the opposite. Minnesota trailed at halftime by three points and traded baskets for most of the second half before finally scoring the game's final three points.
When I examined Minnesota prior to its North Texas loss, KenPom projected them as underdogs in 18 of 20 upcoming conference matchups, but with several more days' worth of data, the Gophers are projected to be underdogs in all but one conference matchup (at home against Washington).
In forecasting how this game will unfold, Yale's defense hasn't been great but neither has Minnesota's offense, ranking 107th in efficiency. This side of the court appears even. At the other end, Yale faces a tough challenge with Minnesota ranking 55th in defensive efficiency, although the Bulldogs do a couple of things well that should help them on Saturday. Yale is effective at collecting offensive boards, ranking 71st in offensive rebounding percentage, a convenient trait because Minnesota ranks 251st in defensive rebounding percentage. Yale is also making over 37 percent from behind the arc, another important weapon assuming they can sustain this percentage, which isn't unrealistic.
Given Minnesota's struggles in recent years and Yale's heroics against power conference teams, I like the Bulldogs' odds of keeping this close, if not winning outright. I'm going with Yale.
College Basketball Best Bet: Yale +4.5 and Under 138.5
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- South Carolina +7.5
- Yale +4.5
- Yale at Minnesota - Under 138.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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