This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We've got a short list of options on the Thursday college hoops slate, but thankfully, we still have a pair of games featuring notable programs against evenly-matched opponents. Here are my predictions for these games.
LSU at Kansas State 
Like many other teams around the country, LSU spent its first week of the season collecting lay-up wins against teams at the bottom of the D-1 rankings. The Tigers pounced on Louisiana Monroe, 95-60, then outlasted Alabama State, 74-61. The first game was a no-doubter, as it should've been, considering ULM ranks 328th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart. The second game came against an opponent that ranks 256th in overall efficiency, but the final outcome was not so certain. Alabama State jumped out to a 32-26 halftime lead and eventually went up by 10 points with under 13 minutes remaining. At that point, KenPom gave the Hornets a 33 percent chance of hanging on for the win, but instead, LSU went on a 21-3 run and closed out the game. Even still, a team like LSU shouldn't need a fourth-quarter rally, so to speak, to beat Alabama State. The Tigers are still ranked 49th in overall efficiency, but this kind of performance doesn't bode well. LSU is an experienced group, 91st in D-1 experience, though they haven't played much together, 228th in minutes continuity, so only time will tell if they mesh and improve or sink when playing better opponents.
Kansas State had a similar schedule last week. The Wildcats dominated New Orleans, 89-65, and then took down Cleveland State, 77-64, with neither outcome ever in doubt. Kansas State had double-digit leads at halftime in both games and never looked back. Now, the Wildcats get a much tougher test when they host the Tigers on Thursday. Kansas State played much better in its second game compared to LSU, though the Wildcats have a similar roster construction in terms of turnover and age. Kansas State ranks 62nd in D-1 experience and 293rd in minutes continuity, a combination that is more common these days given the transitory nature of student-athletes in the current college sports landscape.
In comparing these teams against each other, the offensive abilities immediately stand out. Kansas State has been effective with both inside and outside scoring, while LSU has been one-dimensional. The Tigers have made under 32 percent from behind the arc, 203rd in the nation, but they've made over 63 percent from inside, the 27th-highest mark among all D-1 teams. Kansas State, coincidentally, has been extremely effective at guarding the paint, holding opponents to under 39 percent on two-point attempts, the 16th-best mark in the country. LSU will likely need to do a better job shooting from long-range if it wants to pull off the upset, but a closer review of their roster suggests their three-point shooting number might not come up all that much. The Tigers have two players who made at least 37 percent of three-pointers (min. 100 attempts) last season, but not many other proven shooters. Additionally, LSU hasn't been cautious with the ball ranking 200th in offensive turnover percentage, less than ideal considering KSU ranks 43rd in defensive turnover percentage.
Offensively, Kansas State has been incredibly strong in two categories: shooting and rebounding. The Wildcats rank 12th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage and 22nd in three-point percentage, knocking down 43 percent of their attempts. LSU hasn't been nearly as strong on the boards, ranking 168th in defensive rebounding percentage, so Kansas State should have a big edge on the offensive glass.
In summary, the Wildcats have an advantage in rebounding, turnovers, and three-point shooting. LSU might put up a fight, but I'm not counting on it based on its recent track record. I'm laying the points with the home team in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Kansas State -7.5
Arizona State 
vs. Grand Canyon 
The Sun Devils started the season at 2-0 before tripping on the road to Gonzaga on Sunday, though we can't be too hard on them considering the Bulldogs are currently ranked third on KenPom's overall efficiency chart. In fact, Arizona State played them so well that the visitors moved up in the efficiency standings following the game, now up to No. 67 among all D-1 teams. Prior to this loss, Arizona State defeated Idaho State at home, 55-48, before beating Santa Clara, 81-74, in Henderson, Nevada. Both final scores suggest comfortable victories, but that was far from the case. Against lowly Idaho State, No. 257 on KenPom's overall rankings, the Sun Devils were up by a single point with five minutes to go. They were also in a similar boat against Santa Clara, trailing by a single point with under four minutes remaining. KenPom gave the Broncos a 53 percent chance of winning at that point, although the Sun Devils got a few stops shortly after that and won.
The Antelopes, meanwhile, also won their first two games of the season and look to start 3-0 for the second straight season. Grand Canyon made some noise last year when it made the NCAA Tournament and knocked off five-seed Saint Mary's in the opening round, but this program has been on the rise for several seasons now. Following the 2019-20 season, when the team went 13-17, Grand Canyon hired head coach Bryce Drew and it has been ascending ever since. In each year under coach Drew, the Antelopes have improved their win total year after year, culminating with last year's 30-win season.
In comparing these teams, we more or less know what to expect from Arizona State. The Sun Devils have played a weak opponent, a middling opponent, and an elite opponent, and they've played at home, on the road, and at a neutral site. Additionally, the team profiles just like all the other Bobby Hurley-led teams in recent years. I.e., a good defense, terrible offense.
Last year's Sun Devils squad finished the season ranked 64th in defensive efficiency but 218th (!!) in offensive efficiency. This year's team is better on offense, relatively speaking, ranking 99th on offense and 44th on defense. The scoring issue doesn't appear as severe as last year, although they struggled to score against Idaho State, mustering 55 total points. Time will tell where they truly stand. Arizona State overhauled its roster, so they may improve in these areas, but then again, the Sun Devils have drastically overhauled their roster the last several years in a row, and yet the trends are not changing. Whatever the reason is, the bottom line is that Arizona State has had the same coach for a decade and it hasn't ranked higher than 75th in offensive efficiency in over six years. It's hard to imagine them bucking this trend.
Grand Canyon, on the other hand, will only get better from here on out because it has superstar Tyon Grant-Foster returning to the court, the reigning WAC Player of the Year. It's easy to overlook Grant-Foster given where he plays, but we cannot take his return lightly. Grant-Foster averaged over 20 points and six rebounds per game last year, but that doesn't do him justice, so I will also note that he was named to the Naismith Award watch list and ESPN analyst Jay Bilas' Preseason All-America second team. For context, the only other players on Bilas' second team include Arizona guard Caleb Love, Texas A&M guard Wade Taylor IV, UConn forward Alex Karaban, and Auburn forward Johnni Broome. Most college hoops fans recognize the weight of these names from higher-profile teams, so we can't sleep on Grant-Foster's impact when he returns on Thursday.
As far as how these teams match up against each other, current data suggests that Grand Canyon is much better on the boards at both ends of the court, and much better at causing turnovers on defense. The Antelopes rank 63rd in offensive rebounding percentage, 95th in defensive rebounding, and 72nd in defensive turnover percentage. The Sun Devils rank 289th, 178th, and 328th in the same categories, respectively.
Thursday marks the third match-up between these teams since Bryce Drew joined Grand Canyon five years ago, with the Antelopes narrowly losing each of the first two games. In coach Drew's first season at GCU, the Antelopes were on the cusp of winning before Remy Martin hit a game-winning three-pointer at the end of the game, giving the Sun Devils a 71-70 win. In the following season, in Tempe, the Sun Devils beat the Antelopes, 67-62, a game where GCU trailed by one possession with under five minutes to go.
Given Arizona State's defensive strength and offensive weakness, I'm betting we'll have a low-scoring game. I'm on the under in this one. This is my primary pick for this matchup.
Additionally, I'm also laying the points with Grand Canyon. The Antelopes appear poised to build off of last season, and spirits are undoubtedly high with Grant-Foster's return, presumably the best player on the court whenever he's in the game.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 149.5 and Grand Canyon -5.5
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Kansas State -7.5
- Arizona State vs. Grand Canyon - Under 149.5
- Grand Canyon -5.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
