This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Thursday's college hoops slate brings us another light offering, although at least we have a few potential tournament teams out on display. After thoroughly examining two of the more intriguing matchups, I present my best bets for the day.
Jacksonville 
at Florida 
The Dolphins opened their season with a double-digit victory, 78-65, against Trinity Baptist, a DII team, also from Jacksonville. A win is a win, but I'm sure Dolphins fans would've preferred a more decisive outcome over a lower-division team.
Jacksonville's biggest issue on Monday was its inability to knock down long-range shots. The Dolphins made just 6-of-32 three-point attempts (19 percent), a concerning number considering the opponent's defensive intensity will likely be turned up a notch when they visit the Gators on Thursday. On the bright side, Jacksonville out-rebounded Trinity Baptist by a massive margin, 51-34, giving it at least one strength to build off. Even still, The Dolphins were picked to finish eighth (out of 12) in the ASUN Preseason Media Poll, so expectations in Jacksonville aren't exactly sky-high.
The Gators also tipped off the season with a win on Monday, although their victory carries a bit more weight, defeating South Florida, 98-83, at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. The Gators weren't much better than the Dolphins with their long-range shooting performance, making just 5-of-26 shots (19 percent) from behind the arc, although they made up for it with extreme efficiency inside the paint, making 28-of-37 (76 percent) two-point attempts.
Last year's Florida team was a scoring machine, ranking 17th in adjusted tempo and 12th in offensive efficiency, the perfect combination for scoring loads of points. The Gators returned several significant players and are ranked 34th in minutes continuity from last season, per KenPom, so it's a good bet that the scoring trends will continue throughout the season. The key weakness of last year's team was on the defensive side, where they ranked 94 in efficiency. KenPom upgraded the ranking to No. 52 for the current squad, potentially giving Florida a higher ceiling if the improved defense holds up.
Either way, the most likely outcome for this game involves Florida scoring a boat-load of points. The Gators already dropped 98 points on a legitimate D1 team, even despite a terrible shooting performance from behind the arc. Ultimately, I'm betting the Gators will make enough baskets to cover the lofty spread.
Additionally, Florida loves to push the pace, and Jacksonville isn't shy about taking three-point attempts, hoisting up 32 of them against Trinity Baptist. As a team, the Dolphins have made at least 33 percent of their shots from behind the arc in each of their past three seasons, all under current head coach Jordan Mincy, so it wouldn't be surprising if Jacksonville knocks down a few more shots compared to its opening game. When the dust finally settles, I'm envisioning a final score of 90-65. For these reasons, I'm also on the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Florida -20 and Over 152.5
UC Davis 
at Idaho 
The Aggies began the season with a gritty performance up in Seattle on Tuesday, where they played a competitive game against Washington. The Aggies held a five-point lead with under seven minutes remaining, but they lost their grip over the last few minutes before falling 79-73.
The outcome was a loss, but UC Davis covered as double-digit dogs without breaking a sweat, thanks in large part to the performance of star senior point guard TY Johnson, who dropped 35 points in a valiant effort to pull off the upset. I previewed this game in my article for Tuesday, and I highlighted Johnson because he entered the season as a potential favorite for Big West Player of the Year. He did not disappoint. Including Johnson, UC Davis had 10 players return from last year's team, ranking 44th in minutes continuity, per KenPom. UC Davis finished third in the Big West last year at 14-6 in conference, so they have good reason for optimism.
The Vandals, on the other hand, are still searching for hope. Just four years ago, Idaho finished the season with a record of 1-21. In the three years since then, the Vandals have won 11 or fewer games in each campaign, not the most encouraging results. That said, last season was the first one under head coach Alex Pribble, so perhaps he can eventually turn things around. The team won 11 games in his first year, their most in a single season since they won 22 in 2018. Needless to say, this is not a basketball program with a long track record of success.
Idaho has 10 players returning, so the team is undoubtedly optimistic that an experienced group will show signs of development in the second year under coach Pribble, but there's no way of knowing until they start playing games against competitive teams. And even with all the roster continuity, Idaho was picked to finish second-to-last in the Big Sky Preseason Media Poll. They may exceed expectations this year, but it remains to be seen.
Until then, given the competitive spirit that UC Davis demonstrated in its game against Washington, I like the Aggies' odds of winning a road game as a short favorite. I'm laying the points in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: UC Davis -4
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Florida -20
- Jacksonville at Florida - Over 152.5
- UC Davis -4
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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