This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Wednesday's college hoops slate doesn't have any big-time matchups, but we've still got dozens of games on tap, including several power conference teams in action. Here are my predictions for three games featuring some notable teams.
North Texas 
at Minnesota 
The Mean Green are now in their second season under head coach Ross Hodge, who was elevated to the top job when former coach Grant McCasland left to join Texas Tech before last season.
Hodge spent six years under McCasland and it appears a lot rubbed off. McCasland built North Texas into a defensive juggernaut, ranking in the top-25 in defensive efficiency in his last two years with the Mean Green, and has now passed the torch to Hodge. North Texas held opponents to 63.8 points per game last season, the 12th best in the nation and best in the AAC. It was also the fourth consecutive year that UNT finished in the top-15 in the nation in scoring defense. On the other end of the court, North Texas had several sharpshooters that made it dangerous. The Mean Green made 284 shots (37.7 percent) from behind the arc last season, tied for the second-most three-pointers made in a single season in program history. North Texas has several new players this year, so it might not make quite as many shots, but it's still capable of shooting at a high percentage. This year's team is also an experienced group, ranking 17th in the nation in that category, per KenPom.
Minnesota made significant improvements last year, winning 19 games after totaling just nine from the 2022-23 season. The Gophers finished last year ranked 78th in overall efficiency, and this year's team sits at 67th, so the team surely believes it can build off of last year. That said, Minnesota has several new players, ranking 168th in minutes continuity, per KenPom, so it's possible the Gophers don't improve over last year. Either way, they are also an experienced group, much like their opponent, ranking 13th in D-1 experience.
The Gophers looked solid in their first game against Oral Roberts, winning 80-57, but the same cannot be said about their game against Nebraska Omaha. Minnesota hosted the Mavericks and won by a score of 68-64, but it's imperative to note that the visitors are currently ranked 285th in overall efficiency, not the most encouraging outcome. Even worse, the Gophers trailed at halftime by three points and then traded baskets with the Mavericks for most of the second half before finally scoring the final three points of the game. Sometimes, a small margin of victory against an inferior opponent is a little more understandable if the favored team builds a big lead and then lets off the accelerator at the end of the game. This was not the case. Minnesota played a tight game through and through.
Looking ahead, as the data currently stands, Minnesota would be an underdog in 18 of 20 conference matchups, per KenPom. This could still change, but the point remains -- Minnesota still has a lot of work to do if it wants to go dancing in March.
Given all the facts, this game has a good chance of coming down to the final shot. North Texas plays a gritty, relentless style of defense and has proven it knows how to knock down shots. I like their odds of pulling an upset. I'm taking the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: North Texas +1.5
Hofstra 
vs. Seton Hall 
Hofstra scored 89-plus points in its first two games of the season, but I don't believe that will happen on Wednesday for a couple of reasons.
First, the Pride played Old Westbury, a D-3 school, in its first game, and then played Iona, ranked 277th in adjusted defensive efficiency, in its second game. These opponents are a far cry from what Hofstra will have to deal with on Wednesday.
Seton Hall enters its third year under head coach Shaheen Holloway, and each of his teams has one thing in common: a lockdown defense. The Pirates finished 20th in defensive efficiency in 2022-23, then finished 33rd a year ago despite incurring a fair amount of roster turnover. This year's team saw a similar amount of turnover and currently ranks 44th in defensive efficiency, so it's reasonable to think that this year's team can sustain this level of defense, if not improve, throughout the year.
Second, we should have a low-scoring game on our hands due to Seton Hall's playing style. The Pirates typically play at a slower pace, ranking 231st or lower in adjusted tempo in each season under Holloway.
Additionally, Seton Hall will need to slow the game down significantly to hide a glaring weakness. The biggest difference between this year's Pirates squad and those from the past two years is on the offensive end. Even though Seton Hall was defensive-oriented in past years, scoring was still okay, but this year's team is looking worse than okay. The Pirates rank 201st in adjusted offensive efficiency, which looks about right after reviewing the box scores from their first two games. Seton Hall barely mustered 57 points in its win over Saint Peter's and then scored 56 in its loss to Fordham. Both games were at home and both opponents are well below Seton Hall on the defensive difficulty scale.
Given the strengths and weaknesses of each team, and Seton Hall's penchant for slowing the game down, this matchup has all the ingredients for a low-scoring game. I'm on the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 135.5
Troy 
at Arkansas
Troy won its first two games by double-digits, though the competition makes it hard to judge them. Troy won its first game at home, 84-74, and then won at New Orleans, 78-61. A 17-point victory is nice, but the Privateers are one of the worst teams in the country, ranked No. 350 on KenPom's overall efficiency chart. Now, the Trojans finally get a real test when they travel to Fayetteville.
Arkansas, meanwhile, is looking to rebound after losing its last game to Baylor, 72-67. By now, most college hoops fans are well aware of the new Arkansas team, prominently led by head coach John Calipari. As one might expect, Calipari is up to his old tricks, assembling a roster with sparkling talent. According to 247Sports, Arkansas ranked first with its transfer class for 2024-25 and ranked third with its freshman class.
But even though the Razorbacks have plenty of talent to win a lot, they haven't been as sharp on offense. Arkansas was held to 67 points against Baylor, facing a Bears defense that gave up 101 points to Gonzaga in the season-opener. The Razorbacks are ranked 54th in adjusted offensive efficiency, so they're not awful, but they can obviously improve. On the other side of the court, Arkansas is nearly elite, ranking 13th in defensive efficiency. Even though the Razorbacks lost to Baylor, holding them to 72 points was a bigger deal than it seems. Year after year, the Bears are consistently among the best offensive teams in the nation, and this season appears no different, as they currently rank 12th in efficiency. Baylor scored fewer than 77 points in just one non-conference game last season, a 78-70 loss to Duke, so the Razorbacks' defense appears legitimate.
Looking at the other roster, Troy also relies on defense to win games. The Trojans rank 71st in defensive efficiency, compared to 184th on offense, and this ranking should hold up considering they also have the sixth-highest percentage of returning minutes from last season among all teams, per KenPom.
Considering that both teams are defensive-oriented, I like our odds of seeing a low-scoring game. I'm taking the under in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 150.5
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- North Texas +1.5
- Hofstra vs. Seton Hall - Under 135.5
- Troy at Arkansas - Under 150.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
