This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
All eyes will be on Legacy Arena in Birmingham, Alabama, on Wednesday evening, where the Crimson Tide host the Fighting Illini. Several other notable teams are also in action, however no other matchup compares. Here are my predictions for this game, and a couple of other select matchups on Wednesday's college hoops slate.
Illinois 
vs. Alabama 
The Fighting Illini enter Wednesday with a 3-0 record, although the wins have come at home against Eastern Illinois, SIUE, and Oakland, so they still have a lot to prove. In fact, Illinois has slightly underperformed from where they were projected in the preseason standings. It started ranked 23rd on KenPom's overall efficiency chart and now sits at No. 26. The efficiency data suggests that the Illini are in great shape moving forward, however, there is still a significant amount of uncertainty with this team. Even though they've played well, The Illini rank 336th in strength of schedule. Furthermore, Illinois ranks 309th in D-1 experience and 345th in roster continuity, so Wednesday's game will go a long way toward showing us where this team truly stands.
Alabama, on the other hand, is coming off one of the most difficult tests in college hoops, a road game at Purdue. The Crimson Tide played well throughout most of the game, even taking a six-point lead in the second half, but it wasn't enough after Purdue went on a 13-0 run around the 10-minute mark. In any event, Alabama looks a lot like last year's squad. Elite offense, but lacks defense. Thankfully for the Tide, the defense seems much better, but it still needs improvement. Alabama ranks third in offensive efficiency and 48th in defensive efficiency, so this team is once again an offensive-oriented squad. Unlike the visitors, there's not much uncertainty with the host team. Alabama ranks 18th in D-1 experience and 58th in roster continuity, so we already have a good idea of what to expect out of them.
In looking at how Wednesday's game might unfold, Alabama should have the upper hand on offense. As mentioned above, the Crimson Tide are among the very best in the nation at scoring, something they demonstrated last season and we have no reason to think they'll significantly slow down any time soon. Illinois is ranked 24th in defensive efficiency and has held opponents to the sixth-lowest effective field goal percentage among all D-1 teams, but it's hard to put much stock into these defensive numbers given the small sample size against inferior opponents.
At the other end of the court, Illinois will take on an Alabama defense that wasn't very sturdy a season ago, even though it came just two wins short of a national championship. The Tide's most glaring issue defensively last season was its inability to secure rebounds. Alabama ranked 277th in defensive rebounding percentage last season, but this area is no longer a weakness, as it now ranks 74th on the defensive glass. This improvement is crucial, especially in this matchup because Illinois ranks 22nd in offensive rebounding percentage. Aside from causing turnovers, which it's not doing, the Tide currently ranks above average in all other key defensive categories (i.e. effective field goal percentage allowed, rebounding, free-throw attempt rate).
Given what we know about each team, and their recent successes (or lack thereof), I like our odds of seeing Alabama get back on track. I'm laying the points with the Crimson Tide.
College Basketball Best Bet: Alabama -8
Long Beach State 
at Gonzaga 
I'm usually not one for laying 30-plus points with a team, but if there's ever a time to do it, this is it.
Gonzaga is firing on all cylinders, already dominating three teams in the top 60 of the nation in overall efficiency. The Bulldogs defeated Baylor by a score of 101-63, not a typo, Arizona State, 88-80, and then a couple of nights ago won at San Diego State, 80-67. This string of impressive victories has boosted Gonzaga from ninth in the preseason efficiency standings to number two in the nation, less than a point away from Auburn for the number one spot. Between these games, the Bulldogs also defeated UMass Lowell, 113-54, so they don't let up or take it easy on anyone. This is important because the visiting team on Wednesday is by far the weakest opponent Gonzaga will have seen.
Long Beach State made the NCAA Tournament last year after an improbable run in the Big West Conference tournament, but everything changed in the off-season. Long Beach State now has a new head coach and ranks 349th in roster continuity, meaning it's a clean reset. Normally, this might be a good thing, but not this time. The Beach ranks 276th in overall efficiency and has lost all three of its games to D-1 opponents. But it gets worse. The Beach ranks 294th in defensive efficiency, which spells trouble for the visitors because the host team has the highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation. Additionally, Long Beach State is lackluster on the glass, ranking 210th in offensive rebounding percentage and 252nd on defense. The latter is another big problem because Gonzaga ranks 55th in offensive rebounding percentage.
The spread is gigantic, rightfully so, but I still believe Gonzaga has a good chance of hitting the mark. The Bulldogs already defeated Baylor by 38 points, and they defeated another middling team by over 50 points. I'm taking the Bulldogs in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Gonzaga -33.5
Norfolk State 
at Stanford 
The Spartans enter Wednesday with a 4-1 record, however, two of the wins came against teams outside of D-1, and their one loss came at William & Mary, 84-73. Needless to say, this isn't the most impressive resume.
Stanford, meanwhile, remains perfect on the year at 4-0. The Cardinal has won each game by at least 14 points, and Norfolk State isn't substantially better (or worse) than anyone it's already played. It's also worth noting that Stanford hired a new head coach in the off-season, Kyle Smith from Washington State. It's hard to bank on a coach turning around a program in one year, but Smith had very few returning players with last year's Washington State team, and they won 25 games en route to the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Smith didn't have a losing season in five years at Washington State. Not bad.
The primary reason I circled this game is because of a gigantic mismatch in the paint. Norfolk State has been getting destroyed on the defensive glass, ranking 361st (out of 364) in defensive rebounding percentage. This is a disaster in the making for any team, but on top of this glaring weakness, Stanford is strong on the glass, ranking 30th in offensive rebounding percentage and 29th on defense. The Spartans are poor on defense in general, ranking 218th in efficiency, while the Cardinal has consistently put up points, ranking 46th in offensive efficiency. The other end of the court doesn't look any better for the Spartans. They rank 184th in offensive efficiency and Stanford ranks 98th on defense, giving the edge again to Stanford.
Overall, it's hard to overlook Stanford's massive advantage on the glass. The Cardinal has played consistently well up to this point, and given an opponent of a similar caliber, I like its odds to keep rolling along. I'm laying the points with the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Stanford -14.5
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Alabama -8
- Gonzaga -33.5
- Stanford -14.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
