This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Wednesday's main slate brings a massive 12 games to sort through, tipping at 6:20 pm. EDT, and spanning all the way to an anticipated 11:20 tip with Utah and Arizona State wrapping things up.
Unlike in the afternoon, we've got some high-end options priced in the $9,000 range, led by Providence's Devin Carter ($9,700). He's going to be difficult to squeeze in, but if you find the right bargains to balance, he's a terrific play against a defenseless Georgetown, averaging 51.75 DKP against them in two regular season meetings.
The prize pool in DraftKing's main tournament is slightly larger than the afternoon slate, with $3,000 to the overall winner and $12,000 in total prizes. Despite the volume of games here, scoring is relatively low, with only three games having a total of 149.5 or greater, led by Syracuse - North Carolina State.
Top Targets
Judah Mintz, G, Syracuse ($8,000)
If we're buying this as the slate's highest scoring affair, it makes since to build around Mintz and move on. He's not going to have the upside of Carter, but he's shown capable of a 5x ceiling with four 40+ DKP outings in conference. One happened to come against the Wolfpack, a team he averaged 17.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 3.0 steals against in two meetings previously, showing a 31.9 percent usage rate. The potential when paired with the savings over the top guards can work nicely.
Eric Dixon, F, Villanova ($7,700)
This is a near season-high price for Dixon, which is uncomfortable, especially when pairing that with the likely blowout of this game where Dixon may not need to log 30 minutes. But Dixon is playing at a high level to justify his inclusion here; averaging 17.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.4 steals across his last seven games, playing 31.3 minutes with a 31.8 percent usage rate. He had mixed results in season against DePaul, exploding once and failing to return 3x once, but the Wildcats didn't, winning twice by a combined 61 points and scoring 178 total points. I like the matchup here far better than someone like Dylan Disu, who has size to exploit Kansas State, but the team's production could be less.
Middle Tier
Makhi Mitchell, F, Arkansas ($6,900)
There are far safer options, but safe isn't going to win you a GPP. Mitchell doesn't start, and over his last 12 games, he's averaged just 25.4 minutes and a 21.9 percent usage rate. But when he's on, he's been dominant with six games in this stretch of at least 31.75 DKP, four times crossing the 40-fantasy point threshold. That's the ceiling we have to take a shot at to win big money. It comes with huge risk, he's been in single digit fantasy points twice, including against Vanderbilt, he's fouled out twice and committed four fouls in three straight. Arkansas plays fast, and Vandy matched that in the regular season with an 85-82 final score. Vandy doesn't play great defense either, ranking 311th in effective field goal percentage allowed. I like all things Arkansas here, top end, low end in Trevon Brazile and Chandler Lawson, but Mitchell has the ceiling and low roster numbers that make him my choice.
Johnny Furphy, G, Kansas ($6,300)
With the slate so vast, I don't think we have to chase anything Kansas is going to do here, but there's no doubt the absence of Kevin McCullar and Hunter Dickinson is going to create opportunities for others. No Jayhawk outside of Furphy has shown he can be a top-end scorer, even if we've only seen it from Furphy in flashes. He's topped 30 DKP in six straight games, with a 42.75 DKP ceiling; conveniently coming against Cincinnati where he went for 23 points and 11 rebounds. Furphy surely sees additional defensive attention, but the volume should be there.
Keep an eye on the availability of Maryland's Julian Reese. His potential absence would make Clifford Omoruyi very appealing at a deflated price.
Bargain Options
Shawn Phillips, F, Arizona State ($4,700)
The bottom tier of forwards is pretty gross this evening. Phillips has the look of someone who is far less likely to hurt us than he is likely to help us. But he's started eight of his last nine, returned double-digit fantasy points in all but two with an 8.75 DKP floor. Not great at all, but if we can squeeze out 2x and hit elsewhere, we'll be okay. He produced a combined 15 points, 11 rebounds and two blocks against Utah in two regular season meetings, averaging 16.6 DKP. A repeat would be ideal.
D'Marco Dunn, G, Penn State ($4,100)
Dunn has been a frequent target in this column all season, and with the price down $1,200 from it's peak, why not go back to the well and just hope for a 2.5x return and some savings. Michigan is one of at least three teams on this slate that are going through the motions and ready to call it a year. They rank 194th in defensive efficiency and 314th in 3-point field goal percentage allowed. Dunn was 4-for-7 against the Wolverines in the regular season, and you'd expect similar success here given the defensive shortcomings. He's not a big minutes guy, so there's potential to bust, but there's also potential he gets additional minutes late if the Nittany Lions rest others in a blowout.
