This article is part of our RotoWire Bracketology series.
NCAAM Bracketology on RotoWire 1.0: Houston, Memphis Going Opposite Ways
Bracketology never stops. Even when it matters the least, brackets are created the day after the National Championship game. While I don't agree with the process, if people are going to consume content, then it will keep being made.
I couldn't find Joe Lunardi's first bracket, but he posted a seed list on the first night of the season that included North Carolina as a 2-seed and teams like UCLA and Indiana in the top 20. People love content.
My approach to Bracketology is a little more based in the real world. While I watch college basketball all season and pay attention to the rankings, it's a waste of time to analyze teams after one month of games. Bracketology is meant to project the seeds for March Madness, not to project seeds in January madness.
For a live, updated bracket throughout the week check out our RotoWire Bracketology page.
Even in January, after only a couple weeks of conference play, rating every team is a bit of a slippery slope. Looking at the Bracket Matrix a week ago, many people had Houston rated as a 7- or 8-seed.
Houston: NET 3, 14-3 overall, 2-3 Q1 UPDATE
I like doing brackets because it forces me to study teams and decipher resumes. I also like projecting where teams will end up. Maybe Houston has lost every difficult game on its schedule, but playing in the Big 12, it'll get plenty of opportunities to rack up Quad 1 wins. Their West Virginia and UCF wins are on the cut off from being Quad 2, but they already rank top-five in meaningful metrics, and it'd probably be a surprise if they didn't finish with more than five Q1 wins. In fact, rating the Cougars as a 7-seed right now would imply that those bracketologists are projecting them to win only one or two of their possible 10 Q1 opportunities the rest of the way. I just think that's wrong.
Memphis: NET 42, 14-4 overall, 5-2 Q1
On the other side, Memphis won't get many more Q1 opportunities this season playing in the American Athletic Conference. The Tigers will try and live off early wins against UConn, Michigan State and Ole Miss, but unless they go undefeated in conference play, their losses will come into play. While the American is pretty mediocre overall, the Tigers have already had a couple close calls, and I expect them to lose at least a couple Q2/Q3 games (they already lost to Arkansas State and Temple).
That to say, it's not like early projections are completely bogus. I pulled the NET Top 10 from a year ago, and it featured Houston at 1, Purdue at 2, UConn at 8 and Alabama at 9. Sure, BYU was also No. 5 and lost in the first round as a 6-seed last season, but there will be a flaw or two when projecting from only 15 games played.
Top 20 NET Rankings For 2024-25
| Rank | Previous | School | Conference | Record | Road | Neutral | WAB | Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Auburn | SEC | 17-1 | 3-1 | 6-0 | 10-1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 5-0 | |
| 2 | 2 | Duke | ACC | 16-2 | 5-0 | 0-2 | 4-2 | 1-0 | 6-0 | 5-0 | |
| 3 | 3 | Houston | Big 12 | 14-3 | 3-0 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 5-0 | 3-0 | 4-0 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tennessee | SEC | 16-2 | 3-2 | 3-0 | 5-2 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 7-0 | |
| 5 | 5 | Florida | SEC | 16-2 | 2-1 | 5-0 | 4-2 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 6-0 | |
| 6 | 6 | Iowa St. | Big 12 | 15-2 | 3-1 | 2-1 | 5-2 | 4-0 | 0-0 | 6-0 | |
| 7 | 7 | Alabama | SEC | 15-3 | 5-1 | 3-1 | 5-3 | 5-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 | |
| 8 | 8 | Illinois | Big Ten | 13-5 | 3-2 | 2-1 | 4-4 | 3-0 | 0-1 | 6-0 | |
| 9 | 9 | Kansas | Big 12 | 13-4 | 2-3 | 2-0 | 4-4 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 3-0 | |
| 10 | 10 | Purdue | Big Ten | 15-4 | 4-2 | 2-2 | 4-4 | 5-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | |
| 11 | 12 | Kentucky | SEC | 14-4 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 6-4 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 6-0 | |
| 12 | 11 | Michigan | Big Ten | 14-4 | 3-1 | 2-3 | 2-1 | 5-3 | 5-0 | 2-0 | |
| 13 | 13 | Ole Miss | SEC | 15-3 | 3-2 | 3-1 | 5-3 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 7-0 | |
| 14 | 14 | Arizona | Big 12 | 11-6 | 2-2 | 1-3 | 3-6 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 | |
| 15 | 15 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 13-4 | 3-0 | 1-2 | 3-2 | 1-2 | 3-0 | 6-0 | |
| 16 | 17 | Michigan St. | Big Ten | 16-2 | 3-0 | 3-2 | 4-2 | 4-0 | 4-0 | 4-0 | |
| 17 | 16 | Mississippi St. | SEC | 15-3 | 3-1 | 4-1 | 4-2 | 4-1 | 1-0 | 6-0 | |
| 18 | 19 | Marquette | Big East | 15-3 | 4-2 | 1-0 | 5-2 | 3-1 | 3-0 | 4-0 | |
| 19 | 18 | Gonzaga | WCC | 14-6 | 3-1 | 2-4 | 2-5 | 2-1 | 4-0 | 6-0 | |
| 20 | 20 | Texas A&M | SEC | 14-4 | 1-2 | 4-1 | 4-4 | 4-0 | 1-0 | 5-0 |
Eight of the top 20 teams in the NET are from the SEC. Given that these teams will continue to beat up on each other, racking up mostly Q1 wins and losses, most of them won't move much. South Carolina rates as the worst team in the conference and is still in the NET Top 100.
Similar to football, people will keep asking over the next two months if the SEC is actually that good. Based off non-conference numbers, the SEC is one of the best conferences ever. And really, the only basis for calling yourself one of the best ever, is going by numbers. The SEC may not get a team into the Final Four, but it will still rank well across the metrics at the end of the season no matter what plays out the rest of the way.
For now, if you want to know how good your team is, the best metrics to use are the predictive ones like KenPom and BartTorvik. While I like using Strength of Record (SOR), it's not as reliable with less than 20 games played. As the games accumulate, teams like Houston (SOR 20) will only move higher, while Memphis (SOR 19) will only move lower.
For now, don't get worked up if you see Houston as a 7-seed or Memphis as a 3-seed. These brackets are living in the past. Fortunately, RotoWire Bracketology is always looking ahead to the future and March Madness.
Metrics prior to games on Monday, Jan. 20
For a live, updated bracket throughout the week check out our RotoWire Bracketology page.
