This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Futures Bets: 2023 College Football Win Totals Wagers for Big 12
We're steaming toward the 2023 NCAA Football regular season, and the weekend of Saturday, Aug. 26, and the Week Zero schedule of games, is just on the horizon.
It's a time for excitement in the Big 12 Conference, and it's a transition season of sorts. BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF join the crowd, and could make a splash in their initial seasons in the new-look conference. Oklahoma and Texas are also in the mix, but this is their final rodeo in the league before picking up stakes and heading off to the SEC for 2024.
With 14 teams to choose from in 2023, there are plenty of opportunities to make some money. We'll likely see some of the newcomers struggle in their new surroundings, but one or two might exceed expectations, too.
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Cincinnati Bearcats Win Totals (5.5 at Caesars Sportsbook)
The Bearcats enjoyed great success under head coach Luke Fickell, but he is gone to Wisconsin, and Cincinnati is gone from the Atlantic Athletic Conference (AAC). Head coach Scott Satterfield will have to negotiate the team through the waters of the Big 12, and it could be quite a choppy sail in 2023.
Along with plenty of new rivals, UC will have a new face under center, as QB Emory Jones looks to resurrect his career in front of the fans at Nippert Stadium after flaming out at Florida, losing his job to QB Anthony Richardson. Satterfield hopes the third stop is a charm, as Jones hasn't caught on at UF or Arizona State in previous stops. He could be running for his life, as the Bearcats return just one starter on the O-line. In fact, Cincinnati returns just seven starters total, on both sides of the ball.
The good news is that DLs Jowon Briggs, Dontay Corleone and Malik Vann are back, so at least the Bearcats will be able to at least slow down the run in their new conference. In fact, that might be one of the better D-lines in the conference. Still, there is a lot of change in the linebacking corps and the secondary, and it could be an ugly transition season.
Things might not look too bad initially, with winnable games against FCS Eastern Kentucky and rival Miami (Ohio) at home to start in September. But the clouds will quickly form with Oklahoma invading Nippert Sept. 23, and a trip to BYU looming on Friday, Sept. 29, with a quick turnaround at that.
The good news is that UC misses conference favorite Texas on the schedule. The bad news is trips to BYU, Houston, Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh and West Virginia could mean zero or one win. After calculating and re-calculating the schedule and potential wins and losses, I just cannot find six wins and bowl eligibility for UC.
Cincinnati Win Totals Best Bet
- UNDER 5.5 WINS (-110 at Caesars)
Houston Cougars Win Totals (4.5 at BetMGM)
The Cougars begin their first foray into the Big 12, and things will get real in a hurry. The team gets a huge primer to open Saturday, September 2 against in-state foe UTSA pays a visit to TDECU Stadium, and that's an opponent which should give the Cougars all they can handle. In fact, the key to the season, and the Over/Under on win total, might be decided in the first and last games of the schedule.
TCU is the Big 12 welcome wagon, as the national runner-up visits H-Town on Sept. 16 in a nationally-televised game. The conference schedule then continues at Texas Tech on Sept. 30. It will be a homecoming for QB Donovan Smith, as he transfers over from Lubbock to take over for the departed QB Clayton Tune.
Speaking of which, it's a great move for Smith, as he will have star-in-the-making WR Matthew Golden as his big downfield threat. He is part of a deep receivers room which also includes Samuel Brown, Joshua Cobbs, Stephon Johnson, Joseph Manjack IV and four-star signee Mikal Harrison-Pilot, one of the biggest prep signees for UH in recent memory, if not ever.
The offense will score, and make for some interesting games in the initial Big 12 season. But the defense has to be much better, and is where most of the concern lies. The team added plenty via the portal to try and shore things up, and EDGE David Ugwoegbu is a big addition from Oklahoma.
There are plenty of winnable games for UH, including an early crosstown trip to Rice, a visit from FCS Sam Houston, and familiar foes West Virginia, Cincinnati and UCF. Can the Cougars win a game against the 'legacy' Big 12 teams? Oklahoma State on Nov. 18 could be the team most prime for the picking. It looks like a schedule that could keep Houston from bowling, but it's also a slate with at least five winnable games.
Houston Win Totals Best Bet
- OVER 4.5 WINS (-110 at BetMGM)
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West Virginia Mountaineers Win Totals (5.5 at FanDuel)
The Mountaineers aren't a newcomer to the league, but they're likely going to be everybody's favorite doormat or punching bag, and Morgantown could be an oasis for much-needed victories.
Unproven options in QBs Garrett Greene or redshirt freshman Nicco Marchiol will continue to battle in the summer to be the starting signal caller at Milan Puskar Stadium. Whoever locks down the job will have an experienced offensive line that returns all five starters, which is the good news. And NC State transfer WR Devin Carter should be a welcome addition to a receivers room in need of some pop. He started all four years in Raleigh. TE Kole Taylor transfers in from LSU to give either QB a safety valve, too.
The defense was a trainwreck in 2022, though, allowing a dismal 32.9 points per game. In particular, the pass defense must be better, as it coughed up 262.7 yards per game (111th in FBS), while producing just four interceptions for the entire season.
West Virginia went 6-7 with a bowl loss in 2021, and 5-7 last season under head coach Neal Brown. It has lost seven games in three of the past four seasons, with just one bowl win in the past six campaigns dating back to 2015. It hasn't had back-to-back losing regular seasons since Frank Cignetti's forgettable tenure from 1976-79 which saw them post six or more games in four straight seasons as an independent. This is unchartered territory for West Virginia, but this team doesn't look much better than last season. In fact, after losing star EDGE Dante Stills up front on defense, the D might actually be worse.
The totals vary from book to book, with BetMGM and DraftKings offering Under 4.5 (+120) at plus-money, BetRivers Under 5 (-139) and Under 5.5 wins at Caesars (-180) and FanDuel (-176) costing a little bit of juice for some added wiggle room. It's a reminder that lines vary from book to book, and you should shop around for the best possible value for your needs. On that front, check out our college football win totals page to find the best odds across the best sports betting sites.
Going low on the total of five should be a push or win, but buy the extra half-win at Caesars or FanDuel if you'd like a little insurance. This isn't going to be a bowl-eligible team, however, and could be one which is in the basement of the Big 12 standings. The best bet is Brown being in the unemployment line after this campaign.
West Virginia Win Totals Best Bet
- Under 5 (-139 at BetRivers)
