CFB Picks Week 1: Auburn vs. Baylor
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Week 0 was a nice taste of college football action (and I got a nice W on the books thanks to my belief in the new Western Kentucky offense based on the old Abilene Christian offense), but now things get serious.
Week 1 always gets stretched out on the college football front, and this game is a Friday evening affair. Auburn and Baylor are two of the black box teams of this season, where right now, we don't have a strong sense of what either is going to be. There are tons of variables on both sides. And yet, I decided to jump in with both feet to assess this matchup and offer up my picks and predictions.
Auburn vs. Baylor Betting Odds
Spread: Baylor +2.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: 57.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Baylor +115 (BetMGM Sportsbook), Auburn -134 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
All the books offered up the same spread and the same total for over/under purposes. While the spread is clearly a slight number, the fact remains that Baylor is a home underdog. Is that justified? Or is it, perhaps, SEC exceptionalism?
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Auburn vs. Baylor Betting Picks
A quick table setting. Baylor started last season slow, but won its last six regular season games and then, after a bowl loss, finished 8-5. Auburn went 5-7 and beat one good team in Texas A&M. That game took four overtimes. Dave Aranda and Hugh Freeze are both back, and both remain total chill, normal dudes who don't draw any attention for their behavior. While Baylor had the better record last season, and while it is at home, I will note that the preseason SP+ has Baylor 35th and Auburn 22nd. Interestingly, the Bears are 15th offensively and the Tigers are 16th defensively.
Baylor is betting on offensive continuity. Sawyer Robertson shined at quarterback last year and he returns. So do Baylor's top back and two top receivers from 2024. Dawson Pendergrass, the number-two back, is out for the season with an injury, but otherwise the key playmakers are there. Auburn is doing the opposite. Its top running back and receiver are gone and the program catapaulted quarterback Payton Thorne out of town like he's Rex Banner. Metaphorically.
The Tigers are betting on Jackson Arnold, once a touted recruit at Oklahoma who proved insufficient for the desires there. Auburn is betting on a change of scenery.
This is a "soft sciences" answer in a world of cold, hard data, but Hugh Freeze seems incapable of not getting in his own way. Apparently, Auburn is going to use three play callers on offense. Auburn has a new quarterback and a new lead running back to break in. The Tigers are on the road to open the season, and I just don't feel like they will be up to the task of beating Baylor in this scenario.
Auburn vs. Baylor Best Bet: Baylor +2.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook
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Auburn vs. Baylor Betting Predictions
If Auburn's defense is a top-25 unit this season, it won't be easy to score a ton of points on it. Even in that bowl loss to end 2024, though, Robertson threw for 445 yards with two touchdowns and a pick against LSU. Sure, bowl games are Mad Max-ian chaos these days, but that's still an SEC defense. When the season ends, Auburn could be better than Baylor (though honestly I wouldn't bet on that). As the season begins, though, the Bears seem to be a step ahead of the Tigers. I expect a close game, but I do think Baylor scores the home win, which will give Auburn fans and Alabama radio hosts all the fodder they desire.
