College Football Picks: Week 9 Recap and Best Bets for Week 10

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Published on October 31, 2023

College Football Week 9 Betting Roundup

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The Top-5 from last week's AP poll was unchanged this week. The Oregon Ducks (7-1 SU, 6-1-1ATS) dominated the then No. 13 ranked Utah Utes (6-2 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) 35-6 and easily covered the spread as 6.5-point road favorites. As a result, they moved up two spots in the poll ranking No. 6. The No. 7 Texas Longhorns remained at No. 7 despite a 35-6 win over BYU. The Alabama Crimson Tide, despite being on their BYE week, moved up one slot, as did the Penn State Nittany Lions, who pulled away late against the Indiana Hoosiers as 32-point favorites. The biggest drop among the Top 10 in the polls was the Oklahoma Sooners, who went from No. 6 to No. 10 after their 38-33 loss to the Kansas Jayhawks.

The first of six editions of the College Football Playoff rankings will be revealed Tuesday at 7 EST. This article was written prior to the show, but I think their poll will match the Top 5 in this week's AP poll, and after that, the ranks could be slightly different with no big surprises. As is the case again this season, there are many teams in the Top 10 that have scheduled games against each other, starting with the No. 2 Michigan vs No.3 Ohio State. So, the release tonight of their Top-4 teams is nearly meaningless, given that the final edition may have as many as three different teams.

College Football Betting Tools

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College Football Betting Algorithm

The following college football betting algorithm has earned a 78-8 SU record for 91% wins and 60-25-1 ATS for 71% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are:

· Bet on teams that have won each of their last three games by 21 or more points.

· That team is facing a foe coming off a loss of 17 or more points.

If our team is playing at home against a conference foe, the record improves to 31-1 SU for 97% winners and 22-9-1 ATS for 71% winning bets since 2010.

If our team is priced as a 27.5 or more favorite, their record gets even better, going 22-0 SU and 16-5-1 ATS for 76% winning bets since 2010.

This college football betting algorithm makes No. 2 Michigan the pick as a 32.5-point favorite when they host their Big Ten conference foe, the Purdue Boilermakers, on Saturday, set to kickoff at 7:30 PM and will be aired by NBC.

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College Football Expert Picks for Week 10

Double-digit Underdogs to Monitor in Week 10 from the Predictive Models

Date	Day	Week	Team	Opp	Site	Line	Total
4-Nov-23	Saturday	10	Rutgers	Ohio State	home	18.5	42.5
4-Nov-23	Saturday	10	Missouri	Georgia	away	16	55.5
4-Nov-23	Saturday	10	Pittsburgh	Florida State	home	21.5	51
4-Nov-23	Saturday	10	Maryland	Penn State	home	10.5	50
4-Nov-23	Saturday	10	East Carolina	Tulane	home	16.5	48
4-Nov-23	Saturday	10	California	Oregon	away	24	57.5
4-Nov-23	Saturday	10	Purdue	Michigan	away	32.5	49

College Football Best Bet for Week 10: Florida State -21.5 points vs. Pitt (DraftKings Sportsbook)

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No. 4 Florida State (8-0, 6-0 ACC) will travel to Pittsburgh (2-6, 1-3 ACC) to take on their fellow ACC foe Panthers, set to start at 3:30 PM and will be televised by ESPN. FSU elected to start the season, having to face two powerhouse ranked teams, starting with the LSU Tigers in Week 1 and then their ACC rival Clemson Tigers in Week 4, and won them both on the road. Having played and won these games against ranked opponents has made FSU a much better team and one that I see going undefeated and being voted into the College Football Playoffs.

Following this game, FSU will host their ACC and state rival Miami Hurricanes next Saturday, then play their home finale against Northern Alabama, and then the season finale at Gainesville to face the SEC Florida Gators. They will be favored in every game, and I see them winning by double-digits against Miami and Florida.

FSU ranks 4th nationally on offense, averaging 41.5 PPG, and ranks 18th defensively, allowing 18.3 PPG, having played a difficult schedule. Pittsburgh ranks 116th on offense, averaging 19.1 PPG and ranks 101st on defense, allowing 31.9 PPG. So, FSU is outscoring their foes by 23.2 PPG, while Pittsburgh is getting outscored by an average of 12.8 PPG. Simply stated, this is a monumental mismatch that warrants a line at least seven more points higher than the current price of 21.5 points.

FSU quarterback Jordan Travis is having a sensational season, throwing for 2,109 yards with 18 touchdowns, just two interceptions, and earning a 156 rating. Against the six conference foes he has faced, he has completed 65% of his passes for 1,592 yards with 12 touchdowns and earned a 154 rating. Their formidable ground attack is led by Trey Benson, who has gained 544 rushing yards on 85 carries, including seven scores. He accounts for only 41% of the 1,342 rushing yards gained on the season and reflects their strong depth at the running back position.

FSU has six receivers who have caught 13 or more passes this season and are led by Keon Coleman with 38 catches, 538 receiving yards, and nine scores. For the season, there have been 10 different receivers who have accounted for the 21 receiving touchdowns. So, the Pittsburgh defense is not going to be capable of stopping this offense, and I see them scoring at least 41 points in this game.

A Highly Profitable Situation to Bet FSU

FSU is supported by a terrific situation that has produced a 46-1 SU record for 98% wins and has earned a 33-14 ATS record good for 70.2% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are:

· Bet on road teams that have won more than 75% of their games.

· Is favored by 19.5 or more points.

· Our team has covered the spread in at least five of their last 7 games.

· Our team is facing a losing record host

All of this research points to a solid betting opportunity on Florida State in Week 10 action.