The 12-team College Football Playoff is quickly becoming a college football betting staple for futures wagering, in its second season under this format.
Which teams will back up their recruiting rankings and preseason hype? And will anybody make a Cinderella run the way Indiana and Arizona State did last year in the inaugural 12-team Playoff? Here we go with our updated projection of the CFP field for the 2025 season after Week 2.
Projected College Football Playoff Field For 2025
Seed, Team | Conference | 2025 (Overall, Conference) |
1. Ohio State | Big Ten | 2-0 (0-0) |
2. Georgia | SEC | 2-0 (0-0) |
3. Texas | SEC | 1-1 (0-0) |
4. Penn State | Big Ten | 2-0 (0-0) |
5. LSU | SEC | 2-0 (0-0) |
6. Miami | ACC | 2-0 (0-0) |
7. Oregon | Big Ten | 2-0 (0-0) |
8. Notre Dame | Independent | 0-1 |
9. Clemson | ACC | 1-1 (0-0) |
10. Iowa State | Big 12 | 3-0 (1-0) |
11. South Carolina | SEC | 2-0 (0-0) |
12. Tulane | American | 2-0 (0-0) |
Of note for customers at sports betting sites contemplating wagers on college football: The seeding format has changed from last year's inaugural run at a 12-team field.
For the 2025 College Football Playoff, the teams will be seeded in order of their final CFP ranking, with no first-round byes guaranteed for conference champions. The five highest-ranked conference champions – including one from the Group of Five leagues – will be guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Last year, the top four seeds (and first-round byes) were awarded to the four highest-ranked conference champions, which led to ninth-ranked Boise State receiving the No. 3 seed and Big 12 champion Arizona State, which was 12th in the final CFP rankings, getting the No. 4 seed.
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Top CFP 2025 Contenders
Not much changed at the top of our list, as big-name contenders such as Ohio State, Georgia, LSU, Miami, Texas and Penn State played teams well below their level in Week 2.
Clemson moves down a couple of notches after an unconvincing win over visiting Troy. The Tigers trailed 16-0 before rallying for a 27-16 victory.
Thanks to Arizona State's last-minute loss at Mississippi State – a program that went 2-10 last season – our Big 12 projection has changed again, this time to Iowa State. The Cyclones already defeated Kansas State in Ireland to start their conference slate 1-0, and Saturday's 16-13 victory over rival Iowa gives ISU consecutive wins over the Hawkeyes for the first time since 2011-12.
Outsiders Who Could Crash The CFP
Illinois, at No. 9, is ranked in the top 10 of the Associated Press poll for the first time since 2001. The Fighting Illini have a favorable schedule – they don't face Oregon or Penn State, and No. 1 Ohio State has to come to Champaign on Oct. 11. We still think the Big Ten gets three teams into the CFP, not four, so Illinois will have to prove it's better than OSU, PSU or Oregon to crash the party and pay off in CFB futures betting for the Playoff.
Now, about our Group of 5 selection. USF has the best resume in the country after Week 2, with a 34-7 home win over then-ranked Boise State and a stunning 18-16 victory over then-No. 13 Florida in Gainesville. USF also has its best defense in at least a decade and is ranked No. 18 in the new AP poll.
But we're still playing a bit of a wait-and-see game with the Bulls because, in their 23rd season of being in an FBS conference (first Conference USA, then the Big East and now the American) they have never won a league title or made a championship game. Tulane is still the college football odds favorite to win the American with some major operators, though some have now installed USF as the top choice.
The American race has one more wrinkle: Tulane and USF don't meet in the regular season. So, if both teams are as good as they appear so far, these teams should meet for the league title, in either New Orleans or Tampa. And if USF coach Alex Golesh's mantra that "This ain't the same old South Florida, my brother" – borrowed with affection from USF's late men's basketball coach, Amir Abdur-Rahim – remains true, then the G5 berth in the CFP will come down to that game.
With BetMGM Sportsbook, USF is the new favorite to win the league title, at +200 odds; Caesars now also favors the Bulls (+195) but Tulane is still the choice at bet365 (+250) and DraftKings (+260) as of Monday afternoon.
