This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Bets: 2023 College Football Win Totals Wagers for SEC
The Southeastern Conference is the top dog, especially to plenty of fans in the south, and the results on the field are hard to argue against.
Heading into the 2023 regular season, 12 of the 14 teams have win totals listed at 6.5 or more wins, with one team (Florida) at 5.5, and one team (Vanderbilt) listed at 3.5. Last season all 14 teams had at least five victories, with 11 of the league's 14 teams winning six or more games while attaining bowl eligibility.
Only one SEC team has a game in Week Zero, the weekend of Saturday, Aug. 26, and that's Vanderbilt. It will host Hawai'i, and the Commodores look to drop anchor on the Rainbow Warriors for a second consecutive season. Georgia opens its national championship defense against FCS UT Martin on Saturday, Sept. 2.
There are plenty of solid value plays in the SEC for win totals. Betting win totals means doing a little digging. The devil is in the details, as sometimes people get caught up in team names, but it's all about strength of schedule, and location of games against ranked teams.
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Arkansas Razorbacks Win Totals (6.5 at FanDuel)
The Razorbacks ended up winning six games in the regular season in 2022, including three conference games.
Arkansas will miss Georgia and Tennessee in the cross-division schedule, as well as avoiding Kentucky and South Carolina. That should make the conference schedule slightly more navigable, although it still obviously must face Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss, etc. in the SEC West.
QB KJ Jefferson is back to lead the offense, and that's tremendous news. He is a dual-threat option, and he'll have RB Raheim Sanders as his partner in crime in the backfield. The receivers will mostly be new, with some unproven commodities from outposts like Bowling Green, Hillsdale College and Texas A&M-Commerce. As they say in the movie Dodgeball, "It's a bold move, Cotton, let's see how it pays off."
The new co-defensive coordinator is Travis Williams, and he will try and call plays and improve the scoring defense like he did in his previous stop at UCF. He'll have to do it without the likes of LBs Bumper Pool and Drew Sanders, who are off to the NFL. The Hogs lost plenty of the portal, too, although, as you would expect, there were plenty of adds, too.
Jefferson is capable of carrying this team to plenty of wins, especially in the non-conference portion of the schedule against the likes of FIU, Kent State and Western Carolina, a joke of a slate. It gets BYU, Mississippi State and Missouri at home, too, and those are all winnable games. Arkansas has a neutral-site game against Texas A&M, too, and a home date with Auburn. It will likely need at least one win in two of those games, which could be the difference on whether the Hogs go Over, or Under. I like Arkansas to get it done, and give the schedule maker an assist.
Arkansas Win Totals Best Bet
- OVER 6.5 WINS (-120 at FanDuel)
Kentucky Wildcats Win Totals (6.5 at BetRivers)
The Wildcats said goodbye to QB Will Levis, who ended up going to the Tennessee Titans in the 2nd Round of the 2023 NFL Draft at No. 33 overall. He was a program-changing quarterback, leading the Wildcats to seven wins in 2022, and 10 victories in 2021. Liam Coen was offensive coordinator in the 10-win season, and he is back as OC after a one-year try at the NFL level.
Head coach Mark Stoops didn't let grass grow under his feet, however. He nabbed QB Devin Leary via the transfer portal from NC State, while scooping up RB Ray Davis from SEC East for Vanderbilt. The Wildcats also boast one of the better receiving corps in the SEC with WRs Barion Brown, Dane Key and Tayvion Robinson. The points will certainly be there, assuming Leary is fully healed from the pectoral muscle injury which ended his 2022 season early in Raleigh.
Brown and Robinson also do double duty in the return game, and are among the best in the SEC.
On defense, Kentucky added some key members via the transfer portal, and the front seven should be stout. The biggest questions are in the back end.
As far as the schedule is concerned, Kentucky must face Alabama in Lexington in mid-November, and of course it must face Georgia and Tennessee in the SEC East. However, the Wildcats miss Arkansas, Auburn, LSU and Ole Miss in the cross-division games. It would be stunning if UK cannot get off to a 4-0 start with Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron and Vanderbilt on the schedule to start. UK faces a very winnable game against Florida to close out September, too, before facing UGA.
If the Wildcats stumble early, there will be plenty of concerns, but Coen and Leary should make beautiful music together on offense, and this is a team with seven- or eight-win potential.
Kentucky Win Totals Best Bet
- OVER 6.5 WINS (-134 at BetRivers)
Vanderbilt Commodores Win Totals (3.5 at DraftKings)
The Commodores won five games last season, the second campaign under head coach Clark Lea. Can Vandy take a step forward, winning one more game, to get back to a bowl for the first time since 2018? To cash the Over for season win total, it simply needs to avoid a backslide of two games. Seems easy, right?
Well, it's not so simple. This is Vanderbilt football, and this is a program which has lost seven or more games in nine consecutive seasons.
Lea looks to have struck gold with QB AJ Swann, who completed 58.1% of his pass attempts for 1,274 yards, 10 touchdowns and just two interceptions in nine games. However, he is not the dual-threat option QB Mike Wright (Mississippi State) is, and he'll need plenty of help in the run game. Unfortunately, the leading rusher Davis is now in Lexington, so the lion's share of the carries is expected to fall on the shoulders of freshman RB Sedrick Alexander, an exciting, but obviously very green, player.
Swann will have help in the pass game, as WRs Jayden McGowan and Will Sheppard are tremendous assets. McGowan had nine receiving scores, tied for third-most in a single season in school history.
The defense has seven starters returning, although LB Anfernee Orji is now plying his trade with the New Orleans Saints of the NFL.
Vanderbilt Over bettors will likely know by the middle of September if this is going to be a successful play or not. The non-conference schedule features three winnable games against Hawai'i and Alabama A&M at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville to start, a trip to Wake Forest on Sept. 9, and a road game at UNLV on Sept. 16. It likely needs to be 3-1 for a chance to cash Over. If the 'Dores underproduce in those games, it's unlikely to amass four wins, although the good news is Vandy misses Alabama, Arkansas, LSU and Mississippi State in the cross-division schedule.
Vanderbilt Win Totals Best Bet
- OVER 3.5 WINS (-155 at DraftKings)
