DraftKings College Football DFS Picks: Conference Championship DFS Main Slate

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Published on December 6, 2024

CFB DFS Picks: DraftKings College Football DFS Picks and Plays for Conference Championship Weekend

Welcome to Conference Championship weekend where we're treated to high-stakes games every viewing window of the weekend. Friday provides a nice appetizer before Saturday's main course where we have six games to dig into.

None of these games are expected to be overly high-scoring, but there are angles and plays from each game we'll need to consider. With half the player pool that we're used to on a main slate, we'll need to find some unique plays to vary up our lineups without fading too much of the chalk and risking falling way behind the field.

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Slate Overview

Sun Belt Championship: Louisiana vs Marshall

This game is the curveball on the slate. Generally speaking, us Saturday Main Slate guys are exposed to the more high-profile programs and we haven't tackled either of these teams in one of these articles this season.

Well, Marshall was on it when they played Ohio State in Week 4 but we understandably didn't give out any plays from the Herd side of that game.

Even if you're not as familiar with the Jimmy's and Joe's from this matchup as you are from the Texas-Georgia game, you can't simply scroll past this one. It has the highest total on the slate (57.5) with each team projected to score between 26 and 31 points. That's a nice high floor on both sides.

Neither team pushes tempo as they both run a shade over 64 plays per game. Both are run-heavy with Marshall going to the ground 60.2 percent of the time while the Cajuns run it 54.4 percent of the time. It makes sense, too. They're both good at it.

Both Louisiana (t-25th) and Marshall (23rd) rank in the top 25 in FBS in rushing efficiency. The Cajuns peel off 5.11 YPC and Marshall checks in at 5.17.

Defensively, Marshall is a sieve against the run, allowing 189.3 YPG and 1.8 RuTD. Louisiana isn't much better with 152.7 YPG and 1.5 RuTD.

We'll dig into the individual RB plays later in this piece but it's important to know now that targeting the run games from the Sun Belt Championship is a good building block.

Quarterback

On the Texas quarterbacks...

As is the standard, DraftKings isn't leaving much room between Quinn Ewers ($8,200) and Arch Manning ($8,100) in terms of salary.

Part of me wants to have a Manning lineup, though. Just one. Ewers struggled so mightily against Georgia the first time around I'd be concerned about him making it through the whole game. He's also the kind of quarterback who Georgia prefers to defend. Ewers needs to stand back in a clean pocket to have success and isn't super capable of scrambling his way out of trouble. Especially given Georgia's pass rush and his own ankle issues.

If Ewers struggles, it wouldn't surprise me if there's a short leash and the Horns go to Manning due to his mobility. It'll be tough for Manning to hit value at $8K with a perilous playing time projection. But on a slate like this, I'm willing to see if it could happen. Even if he's just average relative to the other starters on the slate it'll give some differentiation to your lineup.

If nothing else, I'm dubious about playing Ewers at $8,200 this weekend.

Braylon Braxton ($7,100) Marshall vs Louisiana

Though we just spent some time on the running aspect of this game, Braxton still fits as a play. It's not necessarily because of his passing, either. No, Braxton actually leads the team in rushing attempts (118) and netted 544 rushing yards despite being penalized for sack yardage.

He's going to be busy on the ground Saturday and we can expect upwards of 12-15 rushes from him. Additonally, Braxton has some passing game chops. Marshall doesn't ask him to throw much -- 18 attempts per game -- but when they do, they do so aggressively. Throwing 17 touchdowns on 180 attempts is impressive, and so is getting to 8.0 YPA when you're only completing 59 percent of your passes. We need a solid rushing day from Braxton to get it done, and whatever he can do as a passer is an added bonus.

Kevin Jennings ($6,900) SMU vs Clemson

Sorry, this is just too cheap. This will be one of Jennings' toughest tests to date against Clemson's defense, but he'd need to be facing a Top 5 defense on the road to fade at this price. Not a top 20 one at a neutral site.

We'll need a little over 20 points from Jennings to make this a worthwhile play, and that's a number he's routinely hit this season. In ACC play, Jennings has averaged 24.5 DK points thanks to completing 68.3 percent of his passes at a 10.1 YPA clip. They've upped his passing volume of late with 30+ attempts in each of his last three games and he's delivered 282 passing yards per game with a 7:2 TD:INT.

It also helps that it's easy to stack receivers with Jennings as Jordan Hudson is his priciest pass catcher at $4,400.

We want exposure to this game as it's the second-highest totaled game on the slate. It's pretty easy to build out a lineup with Jennings and Cade Klubnik.

Also consider: Parker Navarro ($8,500) Ohio

Nine rushing touchdowns in four November games. That's tied for third behind Ashton Jeanty and LeQuint Allen. Pretty good.

Running Back

Cam Skattebo ($10,300) Arizona State vs Iowa State

If you have to ask if he's worth the 10K, you'll never know. Skattebo is as automatic as it gets on this six-game slate and your other top-end options aren't remotely close to him in terms of ceiling. If you need another reason to play him, Iowa State is stingy against the pass but coughs up 5.0 YPC and 173.7 rushing yards per game.

Elijah Davis ($4,900) and Zylan Perry ($3,600) Louisiana vs Marshall

Quick note, Davis is listed as Bill Davis on DraftKings.

Davis has paced the Cajun backfield nicely this season with a 37 percent rushing share that he's converted into 777 yards (5.18 YPC) and nine touchdowns. He has two 100-yard games and three multi-touchdown outings to his credit. Davis has piled up six touchdowns in his last four games with at least one touchdown in three of those. He erupted for three scores against Troy, but Perry was notably absent for that one. Davis is likely the safer volume play between these two, but there's something about Perry...

Perry is the more explosive of the two with a 6.54 YPC average. He's coming off the best game of his career with 19 carries for 150 yards and two touchdowns against UL-Monroe.

This creates a tricky dynamic for us. Was Perry's game good enough last weekend to shake up the rotation? Perry not only out-rushed but out-carried Davis 19-17 in that game.

If nothing else, Marshall's run defense is bad enough and Louisiana's run rate are good enough to where both guys should return value on their respective salaries. Again, Davis is likely the safer option but I am very intrigued by the hot hand that Perry brings to the table going into this game.

A.J. Turner ($5,500) Marshall vs Louisiana

As mentioned, Turner isn't the leading rusher on the Herd. He is, however, the lead running back and despite the relatively modest volume, he squeezes as much out of his carries as you could hope for.

You'll notice he averaged 8.3 YPC on his 104 carries during the season to go with six touchdowns. That number is slightly juiced by his eight-carry, 119-yard outing against Stonybrook in the opener. The production is still a healthy 7.8 YPC when you filter that game out of his sample.

I am a tad concerned with the recent cold stretch, though. He picked up a foot injury that seems to have slowed him late in the year. Over the last four weeks (3 Games), Turner has 21 carries for 98 yards and no scores.

We're left to decide whether his early-season work was impressive enough to trust him to perform in the Conference Championship. If you're unconvinced, there's former NC State running back Jordan Houston floating out there at $3,400.

Now, Houston hasn't been outstanding during Turner's cold stretch but he has a pair of double-digit DK Point outings. He's an interesting punt play.

Also consider: Phil Mafah ($6,700) Clemson; Nate Frazier ($5,500) Georgia; Anthony Tyus ($5,800) Ohio

Wide Receiver

Jayden Higgins ($7,500) and Jaylin Noel ($6,500) Iowa State vs Arizona State

This one's pretty straightforward. Arizona State is the inverse of Iowa State's defense. It's stingy against the run and shaky against the pass.

This combo comprises 51.3 percent of Iowa State's targets and 75 percent of the team's receiving touchdowns. Higgins is priced ahead thanks to higher target share (33%) and higher touchdown production (9). Noel is still a 100-target player who averages 9.4 YPT and has six touchdowns to his credit. If I can fit Higgins into my lineup, I will. But I won't be mad if I have to drop down to Noel, either.

Xavier Guillory ($3,200) Arizona State vs Iowa State

There's no replacing Jordyn Tyson for Arizona State. They'll likely lean even more on the ground game than usual to make up for his absence. But Sam Leavitt still has to get to 20 throws in a Conference Championship game, right?

Tyson was drawing an outrageous 38.0 percent target share on the year and catching 65 percent of them at a 9.6 YPT clip. Again, he's irreplaceable. Guillory seems to be the proverbial next man up here, though. He has a healthy 9.4 YPT mark on his own with three touchdowns on 17 grabs. Look for him to at least match his season-high in targets (7) here with room for more.

Tight end Chamon Metayer ($3,100) is actually second on the team in targets and nearly min-priced so he is also worth a look.

Recruitniks will remember Troy Omeire ($3,000) and he could certainly be in line for more work this week as well, though it's a bit risky considering ASU is likely topping out at 25 passes here and there are upwards of 3-4 players ahead of him in the pecking order. We can always dream on the upside though, I suppose.

Bryant Wesco ($3,400) Clemson vs SMU

Cade Klubnik is the top-billed passer on this slate and while Antonio Williams has been the top guy this year, his 20% target share isn't so dominant that other pieces are out of the question. Clemson spreads it around and Wesco has seen just under 7.0 targets per game since returning from injury in Week 10.

On the year, the true freshman Wesco has a 9.9 YPT figure on 54 targets over 10 games. That's an impressive role for his experience level and impressive production as well. SMU, by the numbers, has the weakest pass defense on the slate and it would not be shocking to see Clemson attack it.

Williams and Jake Briningstool are totally solid plays, but I'm interested in seeing what Wesco can do at $3,400.

Reggie Virgil ($4,800) Miami-Ohio vs Miami

It's wild how clustered the Redhawks' passing game is. Three players (Virgil, Javon Tracy, Cade McDonald) comprise 69.3 percent of their targets. That's staggering.

It also puts all three in play. I land on Virgil because he has the highest marks of the three in targets (86), yards (787) and touchdowns (9) and is only $4,800. Virgil isn't a PPR merchant, either. Far from it. He only catches 45 percent of his targets. Maybe that hurts him in this format, but I think it's cool to have almost 800 yards on just 39 catches. Eight of his nine touchdowns have come in his last seven games, too, and he hasn't had fewer than 50 yards in a game since Week 8. That, of course, was against Ohio.

Tracy ($5,500) is the more conventional play with 50 catches on 75 targets. He'll keep the chains moving throughout the afternoon and he has a strong seven touchdowns on 50 catches as well, so it's not all about the PPR points with him.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. John McKechnie plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: Fanduel: mckech3; DraftKings: mckech3.