This article is part of our DraftKings College Football series.
Welcome to this week's main slate breakdown for DraftKings. We have an 11-gamer with nine teams expected to score over 30 points. The Oregon State-Arizona matchup leads the way with an over/under of 70, followed by Houston-UCF at 69.5 and Oklahoma State-TCU at 64.5.
With so many top-tier teams on a bye this week like LSU, Oklahoma and Alabama, we're treated to an interesting crop of players, especially at the quarterback position where Wake Forest's Jamie Newman (shoulder) ($7,600) paces the group. There's plenty to like under the $7,000 price tag at quarterback, which will allow us to load up on premier players at other positions. Below you'll find a cheat sheet along with our full suite of DFS tools to help you build your best lineup. Rounding things off is my position-by-position breakdown. If you have any questions, feel free to sound off in the comments of catch me in the Rotowire CFB DFS Discord.
|Team||Opponent||H/A||O/U||Spread||Implied Points||Plays Per Game||Opp. Pass Yds Allowed/ GM||Opp.Pass TD Allowed/GM|
|Notre Dame||Virginia Tech||H||58||-17.5||37.75||64.86||250.9||2.1|
|Wake Forest||North Carolina State||H||61||-7.5||34.25||84.29||235.7||1.0|
|North Carolina State||Wake Forest||A||61||7.5||26.75||76.14||257.6||2.3|
|Virginia Tech||Notre Dame||A||58||17.5||20.25||70.71||186.4||1.1|
|Team||Opponent||H/A||O/U||Spread||Implied Points||Opp. Rush Yds/G||Opp. YPC Allowed||Opp. Rush TD Allowed/G||Offensive S&P+||Opponent Defense S&P+|
|Notre Dame||Virginia Tech||H||58||-17.5||37.75||145.29||4.04||1.6||22||65|
|Wake Forest||North Carolina State||H||61||-7.5||34.25||118.43||3.53||1.6||40||34|
|North Carolina State||Wake Forest||A||61||7.5||26.75||161.71||4.13||1.1||90||69|
|Virginia Tech||Notre Dame||A||58||17.5||20.25||172.71||4.18||1.3||64||31|
Link to the Cheat Sheet data
Position by Position Breakdown
The Wake Forest Dilemma
Jamie Newman is the highest priced quarterback on the board at $7,600, but playing him without full confirmation of his status as the starter is risky. Wake Forest has been coy with its injury disclosure or lack thereof in the past, like the Cade Carney ordeal in Week 3. It's totally within their rights, but it's a frustrating reality for DFS players. So, I'd advise erring on the side of caution here with Newman. Now, if Wake Forest names Newman the starter, I'll probably save some room in my lineups to pivot to him. And if Wake Forest goes with Sam Hartman ($6,900), I'll have heavy exposure there. It's also reasonable to just leave the quarterbacks alone and go with a one-off at receiver, be it Sage Surratt ($8,000) or Scotty Washington ($6,600).
Ian Book, Notre Dame ($7,500) vs. Virginia Tech
Throw last week's showing at Michigan out the window. It was monsooning in Ann Arbor and the game got away from the Irish in the second half. Book's track record far outweighs one bad outing, and a matchup at home against a mediocre Virginia Tech defense should help prove that.
Book averaged 24.9 DK points per game going into the Michigan snafu, including 26.5 DK points per game in South Bend. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech allows 250.9 passing yards and 2.1 passing scores per game and has a defense that rates 65th in S&P+ overall.
Book can also run a bit, having racked up 201 rushing yards and three touchdowns thus far. There's a chance Notre Dame opts to use Book more as a runner this week with Tony Jones Jr. listed as a game-time decision, too. Book's combination of reliable passing production supplemented by solid rushing ability makes him one of the better quarterback plays on the board. Getting to play Virginia Tech at home only helps his cause.
Adrian Martinez, Nebraska ($6,900) at Purdue
This is another injury situation that'll need to be monitored all the way up to kick, but Martinez is trending in the right direction towards being able to play after missing two games with a knee injury. Nebraska's disappointing season aside, Martinez has been a solid fantasy asset, especially against weaker competition. He averaged 27.9 DK points through the first four games of the season before running into a buzzsaw of an Ohio State defense and getting injured against Northwestern. The rushing production from Martinez may not be up to what we've come to expect given that he'll be coming off a knee issue, but facing off against a shaky Purdue defense that ranks 74th in S&P+ sets up as a good spot for the sophomore to regain his form.
Max Duggan, TCU ($6,300) at Oklahoma State
Duggan's huge outing against Texas last week made him one of the top value plays of the entire main slate, and yet his salary rose just $500 for what could be an even more favorable matchup. Although that may be unfair to Oklahoma State because Texas' defense is pretty, pretty bad...
Anyway, the Cowboys are letting up 274 passing yards and 2.0 passing scores per game thus far this season and are giving up the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in the Big 12. Duggan isn't only positioned to contribute through the air, though. Since Week 5, he has 210 rushing yards and two touchdowns. That's more rushing yards than the likes of Quentin Harris, Jayden Daniels, and even Sam Ehlinger. This should be the last time we see Duggan priced under $6,800 this season.
Feeling the Fade
Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma State ($7,000) vs. TCU
I'd be iffy on Sanders even if Tylan Wallace was a full-go. If Friday's re-evaluation shows that Wallace is dealing with something significant there, that's a no-go for Sanders and this Oklahoma State passing game.
For the Bold
Shea Patterson, Michigan ($6,300) at Maryland
As you'll see below, I expect Michigan's ground game to dominate here. But that doesn't mean Patterson can't get in on the action, either. His receivers should have a distinct advantage over the Maryland secondary and Michigan is projected to put nearly 40 points on the board. His ceiling is relatively low, but he projects for a solid floor this week in a soft matchup.
Dillon Gabriel, Central Florida ($7,500) vs. Houston
Quarterback of the offense with the far-and-away highest implied total on the board. Not much to overthink here. If you have room for Gabriel, there isn't much of an argument against using him.
AJ Dillon, Boston College ($7,800) vs. Syracuse
Until DraftKings stops putting Syracuse on the slates, I'm going to keep locking the running backs going against the Orange in my lineups. It worked with Cam Akers last week with a casual 46.5 fantasy points, and it should work again here with Dillon.
Syracuse allows the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs of any Power 5 team! Worse than Rutgers? Yes. Worse than Kansas? You betcha.
Dillon, meanwhile, is the engine of this offense. His 24.6 rushes per game rank second in the nation behind Oklahoma State's Chuba Hubbard. So this sets up for Dillon to get over 20 cracks against one of the worst run defenses in the country. And he's not even the most expensive back on the board. It'll be hard to make a lineup I like that doesn't have Dillon this week.
Otis Anderson ($5,400) and Bentavious Thompson ($5,000), Central Florida vs. Houston
I prefer the UCF passing game here but its backfield options work for the mid-tier price. Anderson and Thompson have seen the bulk of the rushing work over the last two weeks. Thompson has seen 20 carries for 138 yards and three touchdowns in that span while Anderson has seen a heavier workload with less touchdown opportunities with 35 rushes for 285 yards and a touchdown. Considering UCF is three-touchdown favorites over the Cougs on Saturday, we should see a good bit of both Anderson and Thompson, particularly in the second half.
Zach Charbonnet ($5,800) and Hassan Haskins ($4,000), Michigan at Maryland
Both of these guys should be popular on Saturday, and with good reason. Michigan has found its groove in the ground game after pounding Notre Dame into the dirt with 303 rushing yards and three scores in Week 9. Charbonnet gets the goal line work with four touchdowns over the last two weeks while Haskins, despite not scoring, has otherwise out-produced his highly touted counterpart. Haskins has 33 carries for 177 yards in those two games, marking three more carries and 22 more yards than Charbonnet.
Michigan has the second-highest implied total on the board at 38.5 points and faces a Maryland defense that has gotten gashed with 13 rushing touchdowns allowed in five conference games. I'll likely try to have one share of this backfield in most of my lineups, with Haskins likely being my main Michigan back given his projected workload and significantly cheaper price tag. I'll have plenty of Charbonnet, too, because I expect Michigan to stay hot on offense and bury the Terrapins on Saturday.
Jafar Armstrong, Notre Dame ($4,200) vs. Virginia Tech
Armstrong was a major target during draft season but a core muscle injury has railroaded his season to this point. He has played in two games since returning, notching four carries for minus-one yard. Not great, but context matters here. The first game he saw just one carry and got stopped well behind the line of scrimmage. Not much to go on there. And against Michigan, well, Notre Dame wasn't getting anything going across the board, so it's not like Armstrong was the only one struggling.
Speaking of context, we could have a situation here where Tony Jones Jr. sits out due to an upper-body injury. That could springboard Armstrong into a significant role against the Hokies, and his track record suggests he could take advantage of the added opportunity. He averaged 5.3 yards per carry last season over 72 attempts and ran in seven scores. Armstrong also showed some pass-catching skill with 14 catches for 159 yards on 16 targets. Keep an eye on the Jones situation, but coach Brian Kelly said Thursday that Armstrong is in line for a bigger role this weekend anyway. If Notre Dame doesn't want to overwork a less-than-100 percent Jones, which is a distinct possibility, Armstrong should be on the field for the bulk of the Irish's offensive snaps and the opportunities should follow.
Others to Consider
Artavis Pierce, Oregon State ($5,900) at Arizona
Pierce becomes less appealing if Jermar Jefferson (ankle) returns, but if Jefferson remains out, Pierce gets the green light. Arizona is leaky against the run, ranking 92nd in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs and Pierce has been a workhorse for Oregon State with a 51 percent share of the rushing attempts since Week 3. Pierce could still produce even if Jefferson returns as Oregon State could keep Jefferson on a pitch count, but that would make Pierce more of a GPP dart throw type of play.
Gabriel Davis, UCF ($7,600) vs. Houston
Houston's pass defense is one of the weakest units on the slate. The Cougars allow 287.8 passing yards per game and 2.5 passing scores as well. They also give up the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in the AAC. So using the UCF pass-catchers here feels like a must, and Davis is the headliner.
He leads all receivers on the slate in total targets with 90 and is second in targets per game (11.3) behind only Oregon State's Isaiah Hodgins. Davis is explosive with his looks, too, averaging 10.2 YPT and scoring 10 touchdowns. Only Tylan Wallace (11.2) and Sage Surratt (10.5) have a better YPT than Davis among receivers with at least 50 targets. Volume. Explosiveness. Great matchup. Everything sets up well for Davis to take off here in Week 10.
Trishton Jackson, Syracuse ($6,700) vs. Boston College
The Syracuse offense is mostly a stay-away for me, but Jackson has been so consistent despite the adverse conditions around him that he's worth a look this week. He's averaging 11.0 targets per game over his last three outings, and while the efficiency hasn't been great (7.2 YPT, 57.5 percent catch rate), that volume is tough to ignore. Furthermore, this game is in the dome and Boston College's secondary is...not good. The Eagles rank 102nd in defense S&P+ and allow 298.5 passing yards per game. Jackson is a nice one-off play from the Syracuse offense whose price should keep his ownership percentage relatively low.
Wan'Dale Robinson, Nebraska ($5,900) at Purdue
This will be everyone's favorite play this week. Anytime someone's role or position is different than what is listed on DraftKings, it becomes like a bug zapper and we're all a bunch of mosquitos. Robinson, listed as a $5,900 receiver, is apparently the lead running back for the Cornhuskers now that Maurice Washington's off-field issues have gotten him kicked off the team for now.
With no Washington against Illinois, Robinson took 22 carries for 83 yards and a score while also securing all six of his targets for an additional 71 yards. It'd be greedy to expect almost 30 total touches again from Robinson, but is it all that far-fetched? Purdue's offense will score on Nebraska, so that'll keep the pressure on the Cornhusker offense and Robinson is far-and-away their most-trusted asset. He has seen 21 percent of Nebraska's total touches and he reached 40 percent last week. I see his usage against Illinois as more of a sign of things to come than a one-week anomaly.
Kyle Pitts, Florida ($5,300) vs. Georgia
If Georgia has one flaw on defense, it's the ability to slow opposing tight ends. Notre Dame's Cole Kmet did whatever he wanted against the Dawgs back in September with nine catches for 108 yards and a score on 11 targets. Florida has had two weeks to plan for this game, and featuring Pitts would make sense here.
Pitts is the rare tight end who leads his team in target share (18.5 percent). He sees six targets per game and is converting that into 8.0 YPT on a 71 percent catch rate. He's also tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns with four. Tight ends rarely get the green light from me, but Pitts has everything going for him heading into this weekend's matchup.
David Bell, Purdue ($5,000) vs. Nebraska
Since Week 5, no receiver on the slate has more targets than Bell's 57. The freshman has risen to the occasion, too, catching 38 of those for 523 yards and three touchdowns. If there's no Rondale Moore again, which seems likely, Bell will again be the focal point here against a Nebraska defense that gives up 273.0 passing yards per game on the road.
Others to Consider
Taye Barber, TCU ($4,300) at Oklahoma State
Barber represents a cheap way to get exposure to the TCU offense and is especially appealing if you're already using Max Duggan. The sophomore wideout led TCU receivers in targets in his return from injury last week with seven, which he converted into five catches for 94 yards. He and Jalen Reagor seem to be TCU's most trusted pass-catchers and should combine for the bulk of the targets against a soft Oklahoma State defense Saturday.