College Football Best Bets: Miami vs Louisville
Friday night, we get an exciting kickoff to the weekend of college football, and I'm not talking about Cal's opportunity to stomp North Carolina and kick off another wave of Bill Belichick-related denials. The Miami Hurricanes, now standing as the favorite in the ACC, host the Louisville Cardinals. While Miami, as a once-great program looking to regain its old standing, gets a lot of attention whenever it seems primed to turn the corner, this will not be an easy task. The Hurricanes haven't always had the tendency to step up week in and week out, and a slip in Week 8 could lead to an upset.
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Miami vs Louisville Betting Odds
Spread: Miami -12.5 (BetMGM); Louisville +13.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 51.5 (FanDuel), Under 52.5 (DraftKings)
Moneyline: Miami -480 (Caesars Sportsbook), Louisville +400 (Hard Rock Bet)
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The Hurricanes are nearly a two-touchdown favorite across the board. That's probably more a buy-in into Miami as opposed to a lack of belief in Louisville. Of course, it could also just be the books following where the wagers are being placed, and the Hurricanes have the feeling of one of those "public team" that generate a lot of wagers just by dint of the name brand. That line does make me leery, and it's not merely a lack of belief in Mario Cristobal as an in-game tactician.
Miami vs Louisville Betting Picks
The Hurricanes haven't done anything wrong. Miami is 5-0 with easy wins over South Florida and Florida and close wins over Notre Dame and Florida State. Louisville won its first four games, though, before dropping a 30-27 contest against Virginia. The Cavaliers are no slouches this year, though. Offensively, the Cardinals haven't gotten quite what they expected from Miller Moss or Isaac Brown. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, have gotten what they expected from Carson Beck, and freshman receiver Malachi Toney has turned some heads.
And yet! The AP poll and SP+ tell different stories about Miami. In the poll, the Hurricanes rank second. In SP+, they rank 15th, sixth offensively and 24th defensively. Louisville, meanwhile, ranks 26th, ranking 27th both offensively and defensively. Yes, the Hurricanes still have the advantage, and they are at home, but this is not necessarily a matchup of teams playing starkly different. You know, the kind of thing that a two-touchdown spread would indicate.
Miami beat Florida State by six points, though that was a road game. Louisville is probably a smidge better than Florida State, though, and at the very least just as good. The Cardinals also lack the swirling chaos that has subsumed the Seminoles. If Miami can beat Louisville by two touchdowns Friday, I'll give the program and Cristobal my kudos, and we will have our clear favorite in the conference and a playoff player. I just see a lot of "if" in all that right now.
Miami vs Louisville Best Bet: Louisville +13.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Miami vs. Louisville Betting Predictions
I would also be looking at that under 52.5, all things considered. Moss and Brown, as noted, have been spotty for the Louisville offense, but the Louisville staff knows how to get quarterbacks going. On a pure per-game basis, both of these defenses have been stout. The Cardinals and Hurricanes are first and second in conference in terms of total yards allowed per game. Louisville is first, by the way. Miami, having allowed a mere 13.6 points per game, is first on that front.
A low-scoring game is less likely to see a team win by two touchdowns as well, of course. If both teams score what the other usually allows, even if I round down, we'd be looking at a 21-13 Hurricanes win. That, of course, would not cover the spread. That is also not that far off from what I am thinking. I do expect a win for Miami, but I don't see it being easy.
Miami 24, Louisville 14
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Miami vs Louisville Player Prop Picks for Friday, October 17
Carson Beck, Miami - Under 251.5 passing yards (Fanduel)
Beck has finished under 250 passing yards three times this season, and he had 267 yards against Bethune-Cookman. Louisville has allowed 150.4 passing yards per game. I don't see Beck besting that by 100 yards.
Chris Bell, Louisville - Over 92.5 receiving yards (FanDuel)
You cannot run on the Hurricanes, which means the Cardinals will have to lean on the pass. When Moss throws the ball, he loves to look for Bell. On three occasions, Bell has been targeted at least 11 times. In each of his last two games, he's had double-digit receptions. Also, in each of those games, he's gone over 130 yards, so dropping down to even 95 yards would be a major downtick in production.
