College Football Picks: Notre Dame vs USC Best Bets
The No. 20 USC Trojans (5-1) will travel to South Bend Saturday to face No. 13 Notre Dame (4-2 )in a matchup chock-full of CFP implications for both teams. The Fighting Irish have turned a corner on defense, limiting opposing teams to just 27 points over the last three games. USC is a different kind of opponent, possessing one of the most electric offenses in the country. Can they rein in Jayden Maiava and a multi-dimensional offensive attack?
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Notre Dame vs USC Betting Odds for Week 8
Spread: Notre Dame -9.5 (BetMGM), USC +10 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Over 60.5 (ESPN Bet), Under 61.5 (BetMGM)
Moneyline: Notre Dame -325 (DraftKings Sportsbook), USC +275 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
As the weather report crystallizes for this game, I expect the total to move rapidly. We're already seeing some books at 60.5 due to the expected forecast, but the line will likely spike up again if the radar shows a miss for the stadium and surrounding areas. The spread opened at -13.5, but the number has settled within a point of its current level over the past couple of days. I agree that giving USC over 13 points was a bit too enticing to pass on, so I'm not surprised to see money flow the Trojans' way at that point. We're now at a pretty messy line that I'm not particularly fond of, and I plan to avoid it.
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Notre Dame vs USC Betting Picks for Week 8
While this game has all the hallmarks of a high-scoring affair on the surface, it's important to consider some hard numbers and intangible factors before jumping to that conclusion. First, we have Notre Dame's defense.
It's been a tale of two units for the Irish, who have found the secret sauce to get the defense performing at a high level in recent weeks. We already mentioned their torrid defensive run over the past three games, but none of those wins came against an offensive unit like USC. They have an unforgiving defensive front, but some holes in the secondary favor the slot receiver.
That spot is manned by none other than Makai Lemon, one of the best wide receivers in the country. Although the team lost Waymond Jordan and Eli Sanders in quick succession, they seem to have filled the holes with King Miller and Bryan Jackson, but they face an uphill battle against Notre Dame's run defense. Conversely, Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are in a smash spot against a USC front that's riddled with injuries.
The Irish rank fourth in Explosiveness on Standard Downs and has one of the best rush EPAs in the country. It could be a wet and stormy day, and a wet ball and heavy wind gusts could wreak havoc on the passing game for both teams.
For that reason, I am making two conditional picks. If the weather report is as dismal as reported within 24 hours, I will see what I can find and hopefully find an Under at 61.5, but I'll settle for 60.5. Absent that, I will target a team total for the Irish, who seem to have a good opportunity to rack up a decent score if the weather cooperates.
Notre Dame vs USC Expert Picks: Under 61.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook), *Notre Dame Team Total Over 35.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
(* Play if weather forecast is clear)
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Notre Dame vs USC Predictions for Week 8
So much of this game depends on the weather. USC isn't used to playing in poor conditions, and Lincoln Riley has had very little success traveling long distances into Big Ten territory since joining the conference, which is another check against them. The kickoff is late, which lessens the impact somewhat, but it's still a factor to consider. Another major worry for the Trojans is the latent fear that Maiava may be charged to beat the Irish through the air. King Miller turned heads last week, but the walk-on shredded a Michigan defense that had already given up and looked like a shell of its usual self. If Miller and Jackson can't find any room, USC's offense becomes one-dimensional and easier to defend. We mentioned the shortcomings in Notre Dame's secondary relative to Lemon, and that may represent USC's only path to success if the run game sputters. If the weather is milder than expected, I think CJ Carr could out-duel Maiava, but the difference-makers in this game will be Love and Price. This one-two punch will have a lot of success, and one of them is the source of one of my prop bets below.
Final Score (in inclement weather) - Notre Dame 21, USC 13
Final Score (if clearer) - Notre Dame 37, USC 24
Notre Dame vs USC Player Props for Saturday, October 18
Jadarian Price OVER 70.5 Rushing Yards (PrizePicks)
I think Love's props are a little inflated, but all Price needs is one decent breakaway run to get close to this number. In either weather scenario, the Itish will have success moving the ball on the ground.
Jayden Maiava UNDER 287.5 Passing Yards (Underdog)
This is a pick based primarily on the weather, as I think Maiava's only choice will be to air it out if the defense fails to contain the Irish, and the number could surge north of this number. I think this number is a little too high to expect against Notre Dame's resurgent defense, however. I am taking this pick in hopes that Makai Lemon doesn't have too many breakaway plays.
