College Football Picks: USC vs Iowa Best Bets
The No. 21 Iowa Hawkeyes (6-3) will travel to Los Angeles to face the No.17 USC Trojans (6-2) on Saturday at Memorial Stadium. Rain is predicted throughout the day, and it could be heavy at times. There is also a possibility of lightning and a weather delay. If the forecast holds, the weather conditions will have a significant impact on a matchup that has pride on the line for Iowa and playoff implications for USC. Iowa is coming off a heartbreaking road loss to Oregon, while USC handled Northwestern last Friday at home with relative ease.
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USC vs Iowa Betting Odds for Week 12
Spread: USC -6.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook), Iowa +6.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Over 48.5 (Caesars Sportsbook), Under 49.5 (BetMGM)
Moneyline: USC -230 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Iowa +200 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Despite the shifting weather conditions, there's been very little movement across all wagers for this game. The spread has experienced one-half point in either direction, and the moneyline gap has remained consistent. A rush of late money to the Under has lowered the Total by a point on some sites.
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USC vs Iowa Betting Picks for Week 12
As previously noted, the first aspect to consider in this game is the inclement weather. Rain in Southern California is a rarity, and Iowa couldn't have asked for a better situation.
USC's mediocre outing against Notre Dame demonstrated how its offense suffered in the rain, and Iowa is a team built for poor weather. They tamped down Oregon's offense and almost pulled off a huge upset amid a downpour in Eugene, and although they're traveling a long distance again this week, the potential to face USC in bad weather should give the team a bit of a morale boost. The Trojans got an opportunity to flex their offensive muscle again against Northwestern, and although the rain will be a factor, they'll be in a friendly environment without the hassle they received in South Bend and Lincoln.
When it comes to moving he ball through the air, the Trojans have the clear advantage as Jayden Maiava, Makai Lemon and Ja'Kobi Lane present one of the best offensive trios in the country. Their run offense is more evenly matched, and the desire to establish the run early will be paramount for both teams. Lincoln Riley has made some intriguing choices in key moments, opting for pass plays in short yardage when the run game is already going well.
It hurt them against Notre Dame, but Riley seemed to learn his lesson last week and leaned on King Miller more. The scenario suggests a plodding, slow-moving possession game that should yield a low total. Iowa has hit this Over number only twice this season, but both came against weaker teams (UMass and Rutgers). USC has blasted through this Over number consistently all season, but the stifling Iowa defense will prove to be its toughest test of the year.
USC's defense will need to show up to keep this game within striking distance, and an inability to convert in the red zone will keep the score from getting inflated. The only worry for my bet is a solid performance from USC's passing offense, which could still thrive despite poor weather and a tough Iowa secondary.
USC vs Iowa Expert Pick: Under 49.5 (BetMGM)
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USA vs Iowa Predictions for Week 12
The duel between Maiava and Mark Gronowski will be interesting to watch. It's a tale of opposites at the position, with Maiava's 2,614 passing yards (11th nationally) destroying Gronowski's 1.084 passing yards. Gronowski has thrown only five passing touchdowns this year, while Maiava has torched the FBS with 17 passing scores.
On the ground, the two have enjoyed similar success, but Gronowski has been utilized in the red zone often, with 12 rushing touchdowns to his credit. While the duel seems to favor Maiava in a vacuum, the USC quarterback only returned to form after an awful game against Nebraska. Iowa DC Phil Parker has been responsible for Iowa's defensive supremacy for 14 seasons, and rest assured that he watched plenty of tape to see how Nebraska suppressed the Trojans' passing attack.
Ultimately, the Hawkeyes need excellent play from their cornerbacks, as Lemon and Lane are lethal if unchecked. If the weather clears up, USC will turn to the passing game quickly, but they'll otherwise need to watch Miller's snap count. Bryan Jackson hasn't been especially productive behind him, and Iowa can keep its backfield fresh with Kamari Moulton, Xavier Williams and Jaziun Patterson.
A plus for USC is Noah Whittington's 118-yard total against Iowa's defense. If Miller can come close to that total, it could be a long day for Iowa. Conversely, Iowa bottled up Dante Moore and limited him to just 113 yards and zero touchdown passes.
USC's protection is good, and Maiava can wiggle his way out of some tough spots. It'll be a toss-up as to which quarterback can get out of trouble more often. This game could get messy with both teams making their share of mistakes. In True Big Ten style, I think it'll all come down to a late field goal.
USC 20, Iowa 17
USC vs Iowa Player Props for Saturday, November 15
USC Tanook Hines OVER 14.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog)
Hines' target share has grown over the past two weeks. He'll often find himself in single coverage while the Hawkeyes try to contain Lemon and Lane. He should get close to this number with one reception and pass it with two catches.
USC King Miller OVER 0.5 Total Touchdowns (Sleeper)
I find it hard to fathom Miller not getting a shot at the end zone, and the only worry is that Maiava might take matters into his own hands one too many times. Otherwise, I think it's a great spot to target as the hit rate leans heavily in favor of the Over.
