EuroLeague Primer: Round 20 - Thursday

EuroLeague Primer: Round 20 - Thursday

This article is part of our EuroLeague Primer series.




AS Monaco at Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul

Status Check: Jordan Loyd (ASM), Donta Hall (ASM), Chima Moneke (ASM), Adrien Moerman (ASM), Nemanja Bjelica (FBB), Tonye Jekiri (FBB), Ismet Akpinar (FBB), Tarik Biberovic (FBB)

The Breakdown: Thursday's slate will begin with a big-time matchup, as two of the four teams tied for second place at 12-7 will square off in Istanbul. These teams played a thriller in Round 9, with the two teams combining for 189 points and the Turkish team winning by three points. The experts are not anticipating another shootout, but they are expecting another Fenerbahce victory, as they are favored by 5.5 points on their home court. 

Best Bets for Success: Since going through a brief lull Mike James has gotten back on track, putting up at least 30.3 DraftKings points in back-to-back Rounds. His price on that website is back above $11,000 for the first time in over a month, but he is still returning some of the most value on the board. As always you could go with several different players here for Fenerbahce, but the top option looks like Johnathan Motley. Like James, Motley's price has jumped a bit, but he also recorded at least 40.0 DraftKings points twice over the last four Rounds. 

Fantasy Factors: Six players dominated the box score last time Monaco faced Fenerbahce, so it's tough to find a lot to like on their side. The centers on The Roca Team fared well in that matchup, though, and with Hall perhaps less than 100 percent Donatas Motiejunas could be worth a look. Loyd is intriguing at just $8,400, but he may not be 100 percent just yet. Scottie Wilbekin remains just $8,300 on DraftKings, which makes him one of the better bargains on the board. We will also toss out Carsen Edwards, who put up 23.0 DraftKings points last time these teams met.

ALBA Berlin at Maccabi Playtika Tel Aviv

Status Check: Marcus Eriksson (BER), Tamir Blatt (BER), Johannes Thiemann (BER), Yovel Zoosman (BER), Gabriele Procida (BER), Alex Poythress (MTA), Jalen Adams (MTA)

The Breakdown: The German club has gotten back on track a bit following a 12-game losing streak, but they will face a tough task Thursday, as they will square off against a squad that beat them by 13 points last time around and is 8-1 on its home court. Maccabi is the biggest favorite of the day, as the oddsmakers have given them an 8.5-point edge. The stats suggest the outcome could be closer than that, though, as these teams are separated by only 1.4 points in net rating. This game does not have the highest over/under of the day, but plenty of points could be put on the board, as no team plays at a faster pace than ALBA and only one club rates worse on the defensive end than Maccabi.

Best Bets for Success: Lorenzo Brown and Wade Baldwin IV have been regulars in this section, and they will remain here for Round 20, as Brown is averaging more DraftKings points than anyone on the slate and Baldwin is seemingly back at full speed. We will also include Bonzie Colson this time around, as he shined in both Rounds last week and faces an ALBA club that ceded the second most points, three-pointers and field goal attempts to opposing forwards over the last five Rounds. The only team that fared worse over that span against forwards was Maccabi, which sets up Luke Sikma for a productive night. Sikma has been trending downward a bit, but he will also run you just $8,600 on DraftKings. Jaleen Smith and Maodo Lo also earn a mention here given their recent output. It will be tough for both to deliver, as no team allowed guards to score fewer points over the last five Rounds than Maccabi, but they both should see ample opportunities with Blatt likely sidelined.

Fantasy Factors: With a lot of options to consider in the section above, it could be tough to find much value in this contest. However, both Louis Olinde and Procida stand out, as they are returning some of the most value on the board. Olinde gets the same matchup as Sikma, and Procida checks in just above the minimum on DraftKings at $3,300. Jarell Martin will be a name to consider for Maccabi, as he topped the 30-point mark on the same website twice over the past five Rounds.

FC Barcelona at Cazoo Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz

Status Check: Tomas Satoransky (BAR), Sergi Martinez (BAR), Pierria Henry (BKN), Markus Howard (BKN)

The Breakdown: Three Spanish squads currently take up half of the top six spots in the standings, and two of them will match up in Round 20. Barcelona has gotten the better of Baskonia twice this season -- once apiece in the ACB and the EuroLeague -- and they are favored by as many as 3.5 points in this contest. The hosts are 8-1 on their home court in EuroLeague play and trail their opponent by a meager 0.7 points in the net rating department, so they will certainly be a tough out. However, their chances will take a noticeable hit if both Henry and Howard remain sidelined. 

Best Bets for Success: With both his backcourt mates banged up, Darius Thompson seems like Baskonia's safest option for Round 20. Thompson had his least productive game of the season with both players sitting out in Round 19, but he put up at least 28.0 DraftKings points in the two games prior to that and remains second on his team in DraftKings points per contest. Nikola Mirotic leaves a little to be desired in the average value department, but Baskonia ranks bottom-4 against forwards in points, triples and FGA, so he makes for a tantalizing DraftKings target at $10,100. 

Fantasy Factors: Baskonia does not have much depth in the backcourt, so if Henry and Howard sit out, players at other positions will need to step up. Steven Enoch and Tadas Sedekerskis are both playing a bit more than they were, and neither will run you more than $6,300 on DraftKings. Rokas Giedraitis is a little pricey, but he is also most capable of picking up the scoring load if need be. With Satoransky likely to return, Barcelona's rotation will be in flux a bit. Baskonia has been allowing frontcourt players to get pretty involved of late, and that points us to Jan Vesely, who recorded a season-high 32.3 DraftKings points last time he faced his fellow Spanish squad.

Panathinaikos Athens at Virtus Segafredo Bologna

Status Check: Lefteris Bochoridis (PAO), Lefteris Mantzoukas (PAO), Awudu Abass (VIR), Leo Menalo (VIR)

The Breakdown: This will be a key matchup for both clubs, as Virtus enters two games out of a playoff spot and Panathinaikos sits three back. The Greek team has won just two of its nine games on the road, so it should come as no surprise that Virtus is favored by as many as 6.0 points on its home court. Panathinaikos does have reason to be optimistic, as they trail their opponent by only 1.9 points in net rating and picked up the victory when these clubs faced off in Round 9. The 158.5 points expected in this contest are the fewest on the board, but don't be surprised to see the over hit, as these clubs both rank top-8 in pace and combined for 173 points last time around.

Best Bets for Success: We of course have to start with Dwayne Bacon, who is leading the league in scoring and is also the priciest option on the DraftKings board. Bacon put up at least 30.5 DraftKings in three of his last four appearances, and he will take on a Virtus team that ranked bottom-4 against forwards in points, threes and field goal percentage over the last five Rounds. We also have to include Derrick Williams, who profiles similarly to his teammate and dropped 41.5 DraftKings points last time he faced the Italian team. No team allowed guards to rack up more assists over the last five Rounds than Panathinaikos, which points to another nice night for Milos Teodosic. He checks in at a higher cost on DraftKings than he has all season, but he could be the best double-double threat on the board.

Fantasy Factors: No team has allowed centers to score more points nor get up more shots over the course of the season than Panathinaikos, which is good news for Tornike Shengelia and great news for Mam Jaiteh. The latter led his club in DraftKings points last time these teams met, and Shengelia is listed at an affordable $8,000. If you pass on both players you could gamble on Jordan Mickey, who has been putting up pedestrian numbers but is returning some of the most value on the DraftKings board at just $6,600. On the Panathinaikos side, 3x value is well within reach for Georgios Papagiannis at $8,100, and although it's tough to have much confidence in Marius Grigonis, he could be worth a dart throw at $4,400. 

Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade at Valencia Basket

Status Check: Balsa Koprivica (PAR), Jasiel Rivero (VBC), Shannon Evans (VBC), Victor Claver (VBC), Sam Van Rossom (VBC), Martin Hermannsson (VBC), Millan Jimenez (VBC)

The Breakdown: Thursday's slate will come to a close with a matchup between two teams that trail eighth-place Efes by just one win. With a lot on the line for both clubs, the experts expect this to be a tight matchup, and Valencia is favored by no more than 1.5 points on its home court. This game has the highest over/under on the board, which makes sense considering these clubs combined for a whopping 196 points in Valencia's four-point win back in Round 11. Neither team fares very well defensively, and in fact, no one rates worse than that end than Partizan. The Serbian squad is also just 2-7 away from home, but they do check in second in offensive rating and enter on a 5-1 run in EuroLeague play.

Best Bets for Success: Chris Jones has appeared in just four EuroLeauge games since the start of December, but he recorded at least 26.8 DraftKings points in each of the last three, so he will occupy the top spot for Valencia on Thursday. He carries some risk, but there is ample reason to include him in your DraftKings lineups at his $8,500 price tag. On the flip side you can't go wrong with Mathias Lessort, who is returning some of the most average value on the board and recorded one of his six double-doubles on the season last time he faced Valencia. Kevin Punter also looks plenty promising in what figures to be a high-scoring affair.

Fantasy Factors: There was a lot of value to be found on the Valencia side last week, but with Jones and Jared Harper expected back, that will not be the case in Round 20. We still like what Xabi Lopez-Arostegui brings to the table at $7,600, as well as James Webb III at $300 more. Partizan is pretty top-heavy, but Zach LeDay looks good at an affordable $8,800. You could also take a look at Aleksa Avramovic at $5,100.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Kevin O'Brien plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: kevob100, DraftKings: kevob100.
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Kevin O'Brien
Kevin mans the Packers and Brewers beats and moonlights as RotoWire's Director of Operations.
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