FORMULA 1 ARAMCO GRAN PREMIO DE ESPAÑA
Location: Barcelona, Spain
Course: Circuit de Catalunya
Course Length: 4.66 km
Laps: 66
Spanish Grand Prix Preview
The F1 fanbase is reengaged as a real fight appears to be on hand for Max Verstappen and Red Bull. We've progressed from thinking this challenge may be limited to specific tracks to thinking (hoping) we'll see more competitive races across the board. The Spanish Grand Prix will provide us with an excellent test, as Red Bull has dominated the track across the last two years. In 2022, Verstappen won by 13 seconds over teammate Sergio Perez. The next closest driver was George Russell, who was 33 seconds behind Verstappen and nearly 20 ticks off the pace of Perez. The results were even more uncompetitive in 2023. Verstappen beat Lewis Hamilton by 24 seconds and Russell by 32, with the latter duo rounding out the podium.
Speaking of Mercedes, there's plenty of buzz that they have finally figured out the problems that have plagued them throughout the current rules package. They've had relative success at this track in the last couple seasons, so perhaps they could be in position for their second podium finish of 2024. McLaren is being touted as the true challenge to Red Bull, stealing away momentum from Ferrari at the Canadian Grand Prix. That sets us up for a compelling race weekend.
Key Stats at the Circuit de Catalunya
- Races: 33
- Winners from pole: 24
- Winners from top-5 starters: 33
- Winners from top-10 starters: 33
Previous 10 Catalunya Winners
2023- Max Verstappen
2022- Max Verstappen
2021 - Lewis Hamilton
2020 - Lewis Hamilton
2019 - Lewis Hamilton
2018 - Lewis Hamilton
2017 - Lewis Hamilton
2016 - Max Verstappen
2015 - Nico Rosberg
2014 - Lewis Hamilton
Catalunya is viewed as one of the most challenging tracks to drive in the world, regardless of discipline. The 16 turns test the car in every way, with both slow and fast speeds as well as some fairly long straights. Based on the stress that will be placed on the tires, Pirelli has sent their three hardest compounds.
One interesting note is the timing of the grand prix. It comes three weeks later than the event in 2023, which means it will be warmer than last year's edition. That could cause teams to opt for harder tires and it could also change pit strategy. This is commonly a two-stop race, but the calendar change could lead to some teams opting for a three-stop strategy.
DraftKings Value Picks for the Aramco Gran Premio De Espana
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Max Verstappen - $15,000
Lando Norris - $11,200
Charles Leclerc- $10,600
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Carlos Sainz Jr. - $9,000
George Russell - $8,600
Sergio Perez - $8,200
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Lewis Hamilton - $7,600
Fernando Alonso - $6,600
DraftKings Tier 4 Values
Yuki Tsunoda - $5,000
Alex Albon - $4,600
Pierre Gasly - $4,000
DraftKings Constructor Values
Red Bull Racing - $12,000
McLaren - $11,800
Ferrari - $11,000
Mercedes- $8,500
RB F1 Team - $3,200
Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Aramco Gran Premio De Espana
Captain – Lando Norris - $16,800
Lewis Hamilton - $7,600
Yuki Tsunoda - $5,000
Alex Albon - $4,600
Pierre Gasly - $4,000
Constructor- McLaren - $11,800
Having so many teams in contention for the win and podium finishes opens up a variety of potential builds. Interestingly, DK has left Verstappen extremely priced up relative to the field, which makes it a bad bet to build through him as captain. Otherwise, any combination of the six drivers from the remaining top three teams are a viable start to this build. The bet should obviously be on a driver with a strong chance to win and then importantly stacking that driver with their constructor. Of that group, I settled on Norris due to a combination of his recent form and being the most likely top-tier driver to beat his teammate.
This could be the last race weekend to grab Mercedes at a discount, if the team's optimism turns out to translate to the track. Hamilton is the driver that fits from a salary perspective with this build, but Russell is viable in different constructions.
After that, the priority is picking off values where available. Tsunoda's price has remained stable despite his strong season. He'll be in the fight for points and also should have a strong chance to finish in better position than his teammate. That gives him the nod over Lance Stroll, who has a similarly paced car.
Albon is a decent option because he's a near lock to beat his teammate, Logan Sargeant. Gasly requires a little more faith, but Alpine has showed some improved pace in recent races. He's taken advantage with consecutive points finishes.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Aramco Gran Premio De Espana
Winner – Max Verstappen (-125), Lando Norris (+330)
Podium Finish – Charles Leclerc (+180), Sergio Perez (+850)
Top-10 Finish – Yuki Tsunoda (+200)
Winning Margin – Between 6 and 12 seconds (+225)
The logic for most of these picks has already been discussed, though there is some additional logic to some of these selections. Verstappen and Red Bull have looked so dominant here the last two years, and this could be their last stand to prove that they are still the class of the field by a significant margin. Getting Verstappen at -125 would have been unthinkable about six weeks ago.
That leads us to Perez. There's no arguing that he's gone into one of his mid-season slumps, but given Red Bull's run of dominance at this track his price for a podium finish looks a bit outlandish.
Finally, the winning margin is an interesting prop to consider. Races have been rather lopsided here historically, so I'd expect some breathing room for the winning car. However, the pace of the top tier of cars has been minimized relative to recent seasons.
