Formula 1 DFS Picks and Mexican Grand Prix Preview

Formula 1 DFS Picks and Mexican Grand Prix Preview

Formula 1 Gran Premio De La Ciudad De Mexico 2022

Location: Mexico City, Mexico 
Course: Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez
Course Length: 4.304 KM
Laps: 71

Mexican Grand Prix Race Preview

Red Bull has clinched both the driver and constructor championships, so we won't have any drama for the top spots in any of the last three races of the season. There's still plenty on the line. Charles Leclerc is clinging to a two-point lead for second place in the driver standings over Sergio Perez. It would take an impressive showing from Mercedes to surpass Ferrari for second place in the constructor standings, but it remains possible. More compelling is the battle between Alpine and McLaren for fourth place in the constructor standings, with McLaren down only six points – albeit with one hand essentially tied behind its back thanks to the performance of Daniel Ricciardo.

Key Stats at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez

  • Races – 22
  •  Winners from Pole – 9
  •  Winners from front row – 13
  •  Winners from top five – 21
  •  Winners from outside top 10 – 1

Previous Mexican Grand Prix Winners

2021 – Max Verstappen (3/3)
2019 – Lewis Hamilton (2/3)
2018 – Max Verstappen (1/3)
2017 – Max Verstappen (2/3)
2016 – Lewis Hamilton (3/3)
2015 – Nico Rosberg (2/3)

The Mexican Grand Prix debuted in 1963, though it went on a lengthy hiatus between 1993 and 2014. It's been back every year since – barring an absence caused by COVID-19 in 2020 --  and it was announced Thursday that the grand prix would remain on the race calendar until at least 2025. When looking at the results since F1 returned to Mexico, Red Bull and Mercedes have combined to account for every win and 13 of 18 podium finishes. Needless to say, that's a dominant run between the rival teams.

Heading into this year's grand prix, teams will be equipped with the C2, C3 and C4 tires. The defining characteristic of the circuit is its altitude, which sits at 2,200 meters above sea level. That's the highest point on the F1 calendar and reduces drag on the car, meaning cars reach very high speeds on the straights. However, only 45 percent of the track is taken at full throttle, and several slow corners also feature significantly into the track. That combination creates a unique challenge for drivers.  

DraftKings Value Picks for the Mexican Grand Prix

DraftKings Tier 1 Values

Max Verstappen - $13,000
Charles Leclerc - $11,000
Sergio Perez - $10,600
Lewis Hamilton - $10,000

DraftKings Tier 2 Values

Carlos Sainz Jr. - $9,000
Lando Norris - $7,600
Fernando Alonso - $7,000

DraftKings Tier 3 Values

Sebastian Vettel - $5,600
Esteban Ocon - $5,400 
Lance Stroll - $5,000
Kevin Magnussen - $4,600
Alex Albon - $4,200

DraftKings Constructor Values

Red Bull Racing - $12,600
Mercedes - $10, 100
Alpine- $5,300
Aston Martin - $4,500

Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Mexican Grand Prix

Captain – Sergio Perez - $15,900
Max Verstappen - $13,000
Sebastian Vettel - $5,600
Esteban Ocon - $5,400
Kevin Magnussen - $4,600
Alpine - $5,300

Perez has narrative on his side in his home race, but he also has the Red Bull car to power that narrative. An additional key difference to this race as opposed to others is that Red Bull has clinched both the driver and constructor championship. While they have clearly dominated the season, the one thing remaining would be to push Perez ahead of Leclerc for second place in the driver standings and have Red Bull drivers finish 1-2. There is the competing narrative of Max Verstappen trying to win a record 14th grand prix in a single season, so it's no lock that Red Bull would make the rare decision to prioritize Perez ahead of his teammate. However, by captaining Perez, we can fit both Red Bull drivers into a build, which gives us a very strong chance of ensuring the winner of the race will be on our roster and a strong chance to lock in two podium finishers.

Vettel is only three races away from retiring, but he's been turning in some vintage performances. He's tallied points in each of the last three grand prix and in four of six races since the summer break. Lance Stroll is also a nice value option. His race in the United States Grand Prix ended prematurely after a collision with Fernando Alonso, but he qualified seventh and was running in the top 10 when he was forced to retire. He hasn't been in quite as good of form as Vettel, but he has two points finishes since the summer break and has had to retire twice.

It's a pretty easy case to make for Alpine Ocon/Alonso. At times this season, Alpine has been able to match Mercedes in pace, yet their price has never come close to matching from either a driver or constructor perspective. Ocon is cheaper than Valtteri Bottas ($6,000) and Vettel, and is only $200 more expensive than Pierre Gasly. Given their relative performances this season, that doesn't make much sense.

The most logical value selection will likely come down to Magnussen and Alex Albon. Each has regularly gotten the most of their cars, which are improved but still subpar as compared to the field. Williams has run aggressive strategies regularly, which has helped Albon move up the field and pick up DK points even when he doesn't qualify well or finish in points. Things have more often gone the opposite way for Magnussen, as he's finished worse than he's started in nine of 20 races this season. For Albon, that has occurred only six times in 19 races. Magnussen has out-scored Albon by 22 points this season, but has points finishes in only three of his last 10 grand prix.

Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Mexican Grand Prix   

Race Winner – Sergio Perez +380
Top-10 finish – Lance Stroll +150, Valtteri Bottas +160
Winning Margin – Over 10 seconds +145
Fastest Lap – Charles Leclerc +300
Safety Car – No +175

Anything can happen in F1 races, but the most likely outcome is that a Red Bull wins. Max Verstappen (-175) is a heavy favorite for good reason, but there are also factors to believe that this could be Perez's race (discussed above). Stroll's strong form has been covered, but he has significantly better odds than Aston Martin teammate Vettel (-120), whom he's beat in eight of the 18 races in which both drivers have participated. Bottas has been in bad form, but the Alfa Romeo was fast in Austin. He had an uncharacteristic mistake that forced him to retire from the race, but was in line for a points finish prior.Both he and the team have been in a significant slump, giving him decent value. 

Three of the last four Mexican GP winners have had more than a 10-second margin. Red Bull has been dominant in pace and strategy this season, so it would be no surprise to see them win by a significant margin once again.

As has been mentioned a few times, Leclerc is in a battle for the second position in the driver standings. He and Ferrari will be looking to steal as many points as possible to ensure the second-place finish. Assuming he isn't in contention to win the race – and that Red Bull is – Ferrari may be in a good position to get Leclerc on fresh tires late to pump in the fastest lap of the race.

Each of the 2017, 2018 and 2019 GP had only a virtual safety car, so bet the value. Betting there will be a safety car is a heavy favorite (-250).

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dan Marcus
Dan started covering fantasy sports in 2015, joining Rotowire in 2018. In addition to Rotowire, Dan has written for Baseball HQ and Rotoballer.
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