2021 NFL Team Previews: Buffalo Bills

2021 NFL Team Previews: Buffalo Bills

This article is part of our Team Previews series.

Buffalo Bills

It can be argued that the most powerful force in the modern NFL is continuity, a commodity the Bills have by the truckload. Just about all of the team's starters on both sides of the ball return from last year's 13-win squad, helmed by talented young quarterback Josh Allen.

Offseason Moves

Key Acquisitions

The steady veteran provides precise route-running ability.

Brings added speed and depth to the backfield.

Instantly one of the most talented and experienced backups in the league.

Has a chance to contribute right away as a return specialist.

Provides tight end depth behind Dawson Knox.

Key Losses

The speedster had a tough time staying on the field last season.

His departure creates an opening in the return game.

Cost a pretty penny in 2019 free agency but was held back by injuries.

A Look Under the Hood

Head Coach: Sean McDermott (Year 5)

Offensive Coordinator: Brian Daboll (Year 4) - Erhardt-Perkins scheme

Defensive Coordinator: Leslie Frazier (Year 5) - 4-3 scheme

2021 Vegas Projected Wins: 10.5 (T-5th)

   

2020 Record: 13-3

2020 Points Scored: 501 (2nd)

2020 Points Allowed: 375 (16th)

2020 Point Differential: +126 (5th)

2020 Run-Play Rate: 38.3 percent (22nd)

2020 Offensive Snaps: 1,034 (15th)

2020 PFF O-Line Ranking: No. 10

Full 2020 Team Stats

   

Projected 2021 Depth Chart

QB: Josh Allen / Mitchell Trubisky / Jake Fromm

RB: Devin Singletary / Zack Moss / Matt Breida

WR1: Stefon Diggs / Gabriel Davis / Isaiah Hodgins

WR2: Emmanuel Sanders / Marquez Stevenson

WR3: Cole Beasley / Isaiah McKenzie

TE: Dawson Knox / Jacob Hollister

O-Line: LT Dion Dawkins / LG Jon Feliciano / C Mitch Morse / RG Cody Ford / RT Daryl Williams  (RotoWire Rank: No. 14)

Kicker: Tyler Bass

Full 2021 Depth Chart

Top Storylines

Allen Ascending

When Josh Allen was taken by the Bills seventh overall in the 2018 NFL Draft, scouts loved the 6-5, 237-pounder's physical traits and mental makeup. The 25-year-old quarterback came into the league with a cannon attached to his right shoulder and plus mobility, while being viewed as a natural leader with a competitive streak a mile wide. But what about his accuracy?

At Wyoming, Allen had a measly completion percentage of 56.2 overall and racked up 21 interceptions during his two years as a starter. As he embarked on his pro career, the signal-caller's accuracy still was a work in progress, as evidenced by the completion rates of 52.8 and 58.8 percent he logged out of the gate.

Allen turned things around in a big way in 2020, upping his completion percentage to 69.2, en route to compiling 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns and 421 yards and eight more scores on the ground. Moreover, both his interception and TD rates have seen positive gains in each of his first three campaigns.

In the process, Allen has transitioned from toolsy young prospect to an MVP candidate with as much upside as any fantasy quarterback. Further helping his cause in 2021 is that the Bills return every starter from a cohesive offensive line that paved the way for Allen's rise and should be healthier heading into the coming season.

Defending the Title

Not that long ago, the Bills were the perennial answer to the question, "Who has the longest playoff drought in the NFL?" However, after failing to reach the postseason for 18 straight years, the team finally advanced in 2017 and now has made the postseason in three of the last four seasons. In an AFC East no longer dominated by the Patriots, the 2020 Bills captured their first division title since 1995 and got as far as the AFC Championship Game, falling to the Chiefs, who were defending their Super Bowl LIV crown.

Buffalo's franchise renaissance coincides perfectly with the arrival of coach Sean McDermott, whose teams have gone 38-26 over the past four campaigns. GM Brandon Beane's professional approach to building a roster since being hired in May 2017 has been nothing short of spectacular, highlighted by last year's trade for star wideout Stefon Diggs.

Heading into this past offseason, with a successful rebuild in the rear-view mirror, only minor tweaking and depth-building was required to bolster a strong returning nucleus. Unsurprisingly, the Bills are favored to repeat as division champs, but they'll have to hold off an improving Jets squad, the overhauled Patriots and the Dolphins, who went 10-6 last season and have fortified the supporting cast of 2020 first-rounder Tua Tagovailoa.

Backfield Breakdown

This year's edition of the Bills' rushing attack is headed by a solid one-two duo in Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, who were third-round picks in back-to-back drafts in 2019 and 2020, respectively. They'll need to punch up their production, because as a team last year Buffalo only ran for 1,723 yards (20th in the NFL) with an average of 4.2 yards per carry.

With an experienced offensive line that's healthier heading into the coming season and a strong passing attack opponents will need to reckon with, it's not hard to imagine the ground game making strides in 2021. Quarterback Josh Allen remains a threat to run as well, and speedy newcomer Matt Breida could provide a home-run threat in small doses.

From a fantasy perspective, however, this unit could prove frustrating. With not just two but three backs potentially capable of carrying the mail, and a signal-caller who gets touches in close, this unit carries the dreaded committee label. Who leads the way could change from game to game, but the upside play is probably Moss.

He's simply a better athlete than Singletary and has a better nose around the goal line if the Bills start protecting Allen more. Perhaps Singletary's best path to fantasy relevance is for the team to find added ways to utilize his shiftiness, as well as effectively employ him as a pass catcher.

Barometer

⬆️  Rising: WR Cole Beasley

Beasley has produced consistently during his time with the Bills, and his catch rate took a step forward in 2020. He's one of Josh Allen's most-reliable targets and proved it in the playoffs with a pair of seven-catch efforts.

⬇️  Falling: RB Devin Singletary

Though Singletary will see his share of touches, he could be passed on the depth chart by second-year back Zack Moss. That and a looming timeshare is likely to cap Singletary's ceiling unless he does more as a receiver.

😴  Sleeper: WR Emmanuel Sanders

The Bills made a one-year, $6 million investment in Sanders, who turned 34 in March. The savvy wide receiver caught 61 passes in 14 games last season and should have every opportunity to outperform the departed John Brown

🌟  Pivotal Player: Stefon Diggs

Diggs had his best season as a pro in 2020 hands down, piling up 127 catches for 1,535 yards and eight touchdowns, adding a whole new dimension to the Bills' passing game. It may be hard to believe, but his average yards per catch of 12.1 was the third-lowest of his six-year career, so he potentially could perform even better this season.

Medical Tent

RB Zack Moss

Moss injured his ankle in the Bills' wild-card win last season and had a minor "tight rope" surgery on his ankle on Jan. 19. While he was unable to practice during minicamp in June, the team is projecting a full recovery for the beginning of training camp.

G Cody Ford

Starting right guard Cody Ford's 2020 season ended in late November due to a torn meniscus. The team reports that he'll be ready for training camp. Prior to last year's meniscus tear, he also dealt with minor groin, shoulder, knee and ankle issues. Ford still is a young player, but at some point the injuries start to mount.

WR Cole Beasley

Beasley had his most productive campaign as a pro last year, even though it was reported that he suffered a fractured fibula toward the end of the regular season. It was a non-displaced fracture, and he played on it through the playoffs. Still, despite taking a seat for team drills at minicamp last month, the slot man should be 100 percent healthy and ready for training camp.

Job Battle

Devin Singletary and Zack Moss are expected to lead Buffalo's group of backs in 2020, while Taiwan Jones is a near certainty to make the team simply by way of special teams prowess. With that in mind, Matt Breida, Antonio Williams and Christian Wade will compete for the last open spot in the team's backfield.

Breida is one of the NFL's fastest running backs and has more experience than Williams and Wade, so the No. 3 job would appear to be his to lose. Breida also has more special teams experience than anyone else in the running back corps aside from Jones. With good hands to go with it all, Breida at least is worth keeping an eye on if he does make the team and injuries should strike Singletary or Moss, as was the case last season.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dave McKay
Dave McKay is a former ESPN producer and currently the publisher of TheFantasySportsBrain.com. He is focused primarily on strategy in fantasy sports. Dave is from Baltimore and roots for the Ravens, Orioles, and the Detroit Pistons.
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