NFL Futures: Best Bets for Division Winners, Conference Champions and Super Bowl
The time has come. The NFL has returned to us. Before we claim what is rightfully ours, let's talk for a second about the teams you like to make some noise - or not - this season.
We've already discussed stats and awards, but the last piece of the puzzle needs to be added.
Now, we talk team stats.
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Division Winners
AFC East: Buffalo Bills -280 (FD)
As a reminder, just because I pick a team like this doesn't mean I'm telling you to bet this number. It would be difficult for us seeing anybody truly challenge this Bills team in the division over the course of the season.
Yes, Buffalo is a very good team, but if you look at the field, there's upstart New England with a lot to prove. You also have Miami, which despite the talent, seems to be getting worse under Mike McDaniel. Lastly, the Jets are a top-heavy bunch who haven't been good since 'Nam.
Not overthinking it. Bills.
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens -155 (FD)
Browns, no. Steelers, nah. Bengals, not with that defense. Baltimore is easily the most complete team in this division.
Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry should be ready to run it back after a huge 2024 campaign. The offense has playmakers obviously. But the defense should be really dangerous front-to-back with difference makers at each level.
Cincy is appealing, but that defense is likely going to be a disaster again, so I'm not buying it right now. I will say this though, the Ravens have a tough draw out of the gate with games @ Buffalo, vs. Detroit, @ KC, vs. Houston, vs. LAR in the first six weeks. We could reasonably see them start 3-3, which should create a much better betting price in the middle of the year.
AFC South: Tennessee Titans +800 (Caesars Sportsbook)
I'm not willing to die on the hill that the Titans win the division, but 8/1 is a bit long in my opinion. Seemingly one of the most up-in-the-air divisions in the NFL in recent years, I wouldn't count out Tennessee.
Despite having an extremely talented roster, Houston hasn't proven they are anything more than a 10-win team. That's good for sure, but they seem to lack the X-factor and killer instinct. They were 5-1 in the division last year, so that helps, but perhaps the South could be better with some pending improvements from the other teams.
Aside from that, the Texans have a tough start to the year: @ LAR, vs. TB, @ Jax, vs. Tennessee, @ Baltimore, Bye, @ SEA, vs. SF, vs. Denver. Plus, they still play Buffalo and KC later in the year.
I'm a huge Cameron Ward guy. I think he will make a huge difference this season. The offense has talent, as does the defense. Not to mention, they have a lot of winnable games on the docket.
AFC West: Denver Broncos +310 (BetMGM)
I'm not trying to be that contrarian guy. And no, I don't think the Super Bowl window is over in KC or anything like that. I think this is worth a play though. Denver is a team I'm high on in 2025 with that defense and Bo Nix continuing to take steps forward.
Why I like Denver to bet preseason is the way the early part of the schedule unfolds. Vs. Tennessee, @ IND, @ LAC, vs. CIN, @ PHI, vs. NYJ, vs. NYG, vs. Dallas is how they open up their first eight games. Realistically, that could be 6-2 going into the second half of the year.
On the other side, KC will see Philly, Baltimore, Detroit, Washington, and Buffalo before their week 10 bye. There should be opportunities to also get back in on KC at a more favorable number with more information at hand.
AFC Champion: Chiefs +425 (BetMGM)
Every year, we hear how it's this one's time or that one's time, but until somebody proves they can beat KC in the playoffs, I'm betting the Chiefs. They have the best QB in the NFL. A Hall of Fame coach. Talent everywhere. Of course, they have the refs in their pocket as well.
The big piece they missed last year was WR Rashee Rice, who will be back for any playoff run they make. Travis Kelce got engaged so you know the NFL will do everything they can to push the narrative for all of January and February.
The only other bets for me would be the Bengals if they could get in the dance. Cincy is the only team that's proven they can run with the playoff Chiefs. They are the kryptonite. But I'm waiting to bet that throughout the year.
See more AFC Champion odds here at RotoWire.
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles -145 (DK)
I'm not rushing to bet this either, but I do think the Iggles run the NFC East once again. I don't discredit the Super Bowl hangover theory, but the talent they have should handle business.
Most of the championship roster is still intact, and I do think Washington could have even a little regression. Waiting on Philly to pull the trigger is simply because the start to their schedule isn't easy.
They'll see KC, LAR, TB, Denver, and Minnesota before their week 10 bye. Whereas Washington has NYG, GB, LV, ATL, LAC to start the year. There will be an opportunity to take the Eagles later on, but for "this is my pick purposes", this is my pick to win the division.
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings +360 (DK)
This is a tough call and the most difficult division to pick. All four teams have 10+ win abilities. The reason I went with Minnesota is because that defense should be really good again, and we saw what Kevin O'Connell did with Sam Darnold last year.
Even as a rookie, I think JJ McCarthy could have enough success and be a point guard for a team with tons of talent. The offense will get Jordan Addison back after a month to run along side the best WR in the game, Justin Jefferson.
Chicago is +600 or greater, so I think they are worth a bet as well. Talent is there, but the only question is what does Ben Johnson look like as a head coach? We've seen green coordinators fail as the number one before.
I think Detroit is going to regress this year without Johnson or Aaron Glenn running both sides of the ball. Plus C Frank Ragnow retired. Detroit should still be good this year, but I'm expecting to see some lulls throughout the season.
Lastly, I shyed away from Green Bay because the schedule is extremely difficult and I'm a bit hesitant on their pass catching group week-to-week. The addition of Micah Parsons should help (even with his injury), but I'm taking a wait and see approach.
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -105 (FD)
Even though I grew up a die hard Falcons fan for 20+ years, I often enjoyed watching the Bucs whether it was for betting, fantasy, or whatever. Then of course I moved to Tampa in 2021, and let me tell you. THAT was a party.
The reason I brought up my Falcons fanhood is because I've seen plenty of years where there's been expectations by the mainstream media or fake sharps, but the truth is they don't know what any true ATL fan knows, they're destined for misery. Along with a poop defense... every year.
They will always let you down. I do love certain players on the Falcons, but I doubt their roster materializes to an NFC South crown. Tampa has been the most consistent group this decade. I don't see that changing in 2025.
NFC West: Seattle Seahawks +550 (Bet Rivers)
Not sure exactly why people are down on Seattle this year, but it makes no difference to me.
I'm cautiously optimistic this will be a good team in 2025 under Sam Darnold and the new regime on offense. Yes, I know, can't believe I'm saying that. It seems like Seattle will have a lot of the same structure, style, and action the Vikings had last season where Darnold flourished. Add in JSN, Cooper Kupp, Kenny Walker, and what could be a nice defense, why not?
The trendy dark horse is Arizona, and I get it. Not doubting they could be nice this year, but I feel like we've been waiting for this moment every year. That's something I need to see to believe. LAR, I'll never doubt Big Daddy Stafford, but as usual it's a top-heavy Rams roster and Stafford's back feels like a potential issue during the season.
Lastly, SF is still good, so I wouldn't sleep on them, but I think their Super Bowl window is damn near closed. The offensive roster is suspect after a 30-year-old CMC and soon-to-be 32-year-old George Kittle. Plus, they paid 50 mill to BROCK PURDY!? (giggles).
Seattle shouldn't be this long of a price.
NFC Champion
Buccaneers +1300 (FD)
The NFC is so wide open, so it really comes down to matchups in the playoffs. The only other team I like preseason is Philly here for what it's worth.
The reason I chose Tampa aside from the price, is because I think the offense could be as good as anybody's in the NFC this season. The defense won't be up to that championship level from 2020, but as long as it's serviceable, which it should be, then they could be in business.
Tampa has been so close the last couple of years with strong games against the other top teams in the NFC. It always seems to come down to the end of the game with a play they just don't quite make. But I believe in Baker Mayfield and the Bucs, so 13/1 is a wild number to win the NFC in my opinion.
Super Bowl Best Bet
Chiefs +850
The rematch of 2020. Five years later, when I move back down to Florida, it's destined to happen.
