This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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Odds Picks and Predictions for Sunday Night Football: San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills
An increasingly desperate 49ers squad that's primed to get its starting quarterback back travels across the country for a critical battle against a leading AFC contender in the Bills for what shapes up as a frigid interconference clash.
Let's dive into the latest odds plus bets and predictions for the prime time showdown.
San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: 49ers +230 (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Bills -250 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Point spread: 49ers +6 (-105 ESPN BET)/ Bills -5.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: 44.5
The spread for this game has seen some ping-pong action over the last few days, but it ultimately bounced back to what it opened last week at most sportsbooks. Buffalo sat as a six-point favorite early in the week, but then that number got as high as a full touchdown before Niners buyback brought it back down to 6 and some 5.5's entering the weekend.
The total has seen greater movement, going from 46-points to start the week to all the way as low as 43 later on. That nadir was brief, however, as the number was bet all the way back up to 45 before slightly dipping to 44.5 at some sportsbooks entering the weekend.
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San Francisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills Betting Picks
Of the many unlikely scenarios that this NFL season has already brought forth, a 5-6 record for the 49ers at this juncture is one of the more surprising ones. San Francisco didn't forget how to win overnight, but it has regressed to where they struggle holding late leads and/or making critical late-game plays. Not including last week's 38-10 drubbing at the hands of the Packers with Brandon Allen under center, the Niners' other five losses have come by a combined 23 points.
Naturally, the flip side to that coin is that Kyle Shanahan's squad is just a few plays from having a very different record, especially if key injuries to Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk had not occurred. While that's true in theory, the reality is the Niners can ill afford any more defeats if they want to lock in a postseason ticket via the method that looks likeliest for them at the moment, prevailing in a very close NFC West.
While this game doesn't have direct bearing on the division, it also serves as an excellent barometer for a San Francisco team that undoubtedly still sees itself as Super Bowl caliber despite the standings. The good news is that it appears Brock Purdy will return to man the QB position this week and therefore instantly make the offense a viable one again. San Fran had scored a combined 53 points against the Cowboys and Buccaneers with Purdy and McCaffrey finally playing together in Week 10, before the entire unit had an off day in Week 11 against the Seahawks.
This matchup against the Bills' defense certainly is no picnic, but teams have beaten Buffalo on occasion on the ground as they allow 119.1 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry to running backs. Additionally, no team has ceded more catches or receiving yards to RBs than the Bills' 69 receptions and 558 yards. Buffalo has also surrendered the second-most receiving TDs (five) to the position.
Those metrics could all play a key role in this game, considering McCaffrey's proficiency in that area. Now that the star running back has three games under his belt, he also should have his timing close to perfectly calibrated as a runner, which should keep him as a major factor in keeping the chains moving. The Bills have done a very good job keeping the ball in front of them at home while yielding a league-low 7.5 yards per completion in that split, but that could suit the Niners' quick-hitting passing game, which certainly counts McCaffrey as a major component, well.
The Niners' defense will once again line up without Nick Bosa, in addition to missing Jordan Elliott, which is naturally far from ideal. Therefore, the Bills should also find their fair share of success on the ground, which puts me in the direction of the Over on a James Cook rushing yards prop as well. Ultimately however I see a veteran team with a quality coaching staff that will look to avoid falling two games under .500 and keep things respectable at the very least.
- SGP: 49ers alt. spread +10.5 and Christian McCaffrey 80+ rushing + receiving yards (-117 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- James Cook Over 63.5 rushing yards (-110 on BetRivers Sportsbook)
San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills Prediction
49ers 27, Bills 24
It feels far from comfortable to call for an upset here, as evident by my staying away from a straight spread or moneyline bet. Yet, it's undoubtedly within the range of outcomes for San Francisco if Purdy plays, and with no limits. That's what this prediction hinges on, as I believe the the Niners desperation and aggressive defense potentially goads Allen into a couple of critical mistakes. Not to mention the Niners more functional offense can produce results in an extremely hard-fought battle.
